Brent Nyitray
Fairlington Blade
Let the mutherfuker burn!
jnc4p
Kevin S. Willis
Michigoose
lmsinca
markinaustin
Memetrics
novahockey
quarterback
ScottC
yellojktVital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P futures | 4,036 | 1.5 |
| Oil (WTI) | 69.76 | 0.09 |
| 10 year government bond yield | 3.60% | |
| 30 year fixed rate mortgage | 6.54% |
Stocks are flattish as we await the FOMC decision at 2:00 pm EST. Bonds and MBS are flat as well.
The markets still see a 25 basis point hike at the meeting today. We will get a fresh set of economic forecasts as well as the dot plot. Jerome Powell will hold a press conference at 2:00 pm. We could see a lot of volatility this afternoon.
Existing Home Sales rose 14.5% in February, according to the National Association of Realtors. This ended a 12 month streak of declines. Most notably, the median home price fell by 0.2% to $363,000. Prices rose in the Midwest and the South, while falling in the Northeast and the West. The number of homes for sale came in at 980,000 which represents about a 2.6 month supply at the current sales pace. This is indicative of a tight market; a balanced market is about 6 months’ worth of sales.
“Conscious of changing mortgage rates, home buyers are taking advantage of any rate declines,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Moreover, we’re seeing stronger sales gains in areas where home prices are decreasing and the local economies are adding jobs.”
The first time homebuyer accounted for 27% of sales which is a pretty low percentage. First time homebuyers accounted for 26% in 2022, which was a record low.
Mortgage applications rose 3% last week as purchases rose 2% and refis rose 5%. “Treasury yields declined last week, driven by uncertainty over the health of the banking sector and worries about the broader impact on the economy. Mortgage rates declined for the second week in a row, with the 30-year fixed rate dropping to 6.48 percent, the lowest level in a month,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Vice President and Deputy Chief Economist. “However, mortgage rates have not dropped as much as Treasury rates due to increased MBS market volatility. The spread between the 30-year fixed and 10-year Treasury remained wide at around 300 basis points, compared to a more typical spread of 180 basis points.”
MBS spreads are a function of interest rate volatility – when interest rate volatility rises, mortgage backed securities will underperform Treasuries. While the VIX (a measure of stock market volatility) has been relatively muted, the MOVE Index (which is sort of the VIX for bonds) has been spiking:
The spike has been largely due to a massive head fake in the bond market. 2022 ended with a couple of benign CPI prints which convinced the bond market that the Fed was accomplishing its mission and inflation was about dead. The January and February CPI prints (along with a robust January jobs report) caused investors to re-think that forecast and rates spiked. The latest banking crisis has massively increased uncertainty over future Fed moves. The fact that First Republic has been part of the walking wounded is an ominous sign as well that the crisis is still with us.
The punch line is that this uncertainty has caused mortgage backed securities to hold relatively steady while Treasury yields fall. The other problem is that mortgage backed securities have a dark cloud over them given that banks might need to sell them to raise capital.
Filed under: Economy |
All Things in Moderation 
Not only do men make better women than actual women, they’re also better Democratic women than actual Democratic women.
https://townhall.com/tipsheet/madelineleesman/2023/03/22/woman-of-the-year-is-trans-n2620988
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Yep:
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But there’s an alternative story, in which our Republican swing voter is invested not in specific candidates so much as in the grand battle with the liberal political establishment. In this theory the DeSantis brand is built on his being a battler, a scourge of cultural liberalism in all its forms
He almost gets it.
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Surprisingly good piece on Ukraine in The Atlantic.
“Ron DeSantis Is Right About Ukraine
His statements have been hotly disputed, but not refuted.
By Mario Loyola”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/ron-desantis-ukraine-war-end/673463/
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Worth a watch:
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Regarding Stanford Law School:
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I wonder if the fever is breaking
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It could be breaking indeed:
https://www.dailywire.com/news/derisive-divisive-and-demoralizing-misogyny-public-university-president-cancels-student-drag-show-issues-fiery-rebuke-of-drag
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“As a university president, I would not support ‘blackface’ performances on our campus, even if told the performance is a form of free speech or intended as humor.”
Nicely done.
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Not to be nitpicky, but are they equating “supporting” with “allowing”? I’m a free speech absolutetist and if parents want to subject their kid to a drag show or a minstrel show in blackface, it’s their right. Doesn’t mean the institution supports something it is obligated to allow.
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McWing:
Doesn’t mean the institution supports something it is obligated to allow.
Obligated by what? I don’t think universities are “obligated” to allow on their campuses any and all kinds of performances that a group of students might dream up and desire. Certainly they haven’t acted as if they are when it comes to conservative groups.
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I agree they behave quite hypocritically. I mean that if they’re receiving taxpayer funds then they should provide equal access, meaning equal access to the Social Democrats or other left wing groups like the KKK or Nazi party.
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Depends on public vs private and viewpoint neutrality vis-a-vis the First Amendment.
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If they receive tax payer money they must provide equal access.
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jnc:
Depends on public vs private and viewpoint neutrality vis-a-vis the First Amendment.
Well, I think this is precisely the conundrum of public education institutions. If the first amendment applies to a public university, ie it must allow the expression of any and all viewpoints, then taxpayers have no right to decide which viewpoints they will subsidize with their own money. If, however, taxpayers have a right not to subsidize the expression of viewpoints to which they object, then the first amendment cannot apply to public universities.
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This reaction may be the best evidence:
“The Crisis of the Intellectuals
Traditional notions of the intellectual were never meant to include people who looked like me or who had a background like mine.
By Ibram X. Kendi”
https://www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2023/03/intellectualism-crisis-american-racism/673480/
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jnc:
I can’t think of a greater indictment of the world of “intellectuals” than the notion the Kendi is one.
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The endpoint of his argument against a definition of the intellectual based on ““reason” and “objectivity” and “empiricism””, is that no one who isn’t Ibram X. Kendi should care what Ibram X. Kendi has to say about anything, since he’s only “speaking his truth” and that has no bearing on anyone else’s truth. It’s ultimately a rejection of the concept of the intellectual itself, which he alludes to and ultimately is fine with because of course the current conception of an intellectual is intertwined with racism, etc.
On the other hand, he’s not wrong here:
“American traditions do not breed intellectuals; they breed propagandists and careerists”
especially as of late.
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jnc:
On the other hand, he’s not wrong here:
“American traditions do not breed intellectuals; they breed propagandists and careerists”
especially as of late.
While it is surely true that many propagandists and careerists have been bred in America, especially as of late, I am not at all sure that such breeding can be attributed to “American traditions”.
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Gawd, men are awesome at being women!
https://www.outkick.com/transgender-woman-tiffany-thomas-wins-nyc-cycling-event/
Never gets old!
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