Vital Statistics:
Last | Change | |
S&P futures | 4,058 | 6.75 |
Oil (WTI) | 79.98 | -0.40 |
10 year government bond yield | 3.94% | |
30 year fixed rate mortgage | 6.73% |
Stocks are marginally higher as we await Jerome Powell’s Humphrey-Hawkins testimony. Bonds and MBS are down.
Jerome Powell heads to the Hill this morning at 10:00 am. I don’t see the prepared remarks on the Fed’s website quite yet, so we don’t have a preview. The market’s focus will be on whether Powell still sees the “disinflationary process” continuing in the face of strong inflation numbers in January.
It will be interesting to see how much push-back Powell gets from Congress over rising rates. Republicans will probably beat him up for missing the turn in inflation while Democrats will hammer him for wanting a weaker labor market.
The Federal Trade Commission is set to sue to block the merger between Black Knight and Intercontinental Exchange. The two companies would need to divest either Encompass or Empower to get past the regulators. The problem is that the regulators probably won’t accept a spin-out into a separate company. They will have to find a strong buyer who will be able to compete with the newly merged company, and there probably aren’t many players in the industry who would be able to make it work. The merger spread is ginormous right now, so the market thinks this deal is deader than Elvis.
For-sale inventory declined in January, according to the Black Knight Mortgage Monitor. The company reported that home prices fell 0.13% MOM on a seasonally-adjusted basis, which is the smallest decline since it started about 7 months ago. Half of all mortgages are at rates of 3.5% or lower, while 2/3 are below 4%. We have a long way to go in rates before refinance activity returns, although cash-out refinances will come into play if rates fall further.
“The interplay between inventory, home prices and interest rates has been the defining characteristic of the housing market for the last two years, and this continues to be the case,” said Walden. “Today, we see buyer demand dampened under pressure from rising rates and their impact on affordability, with purchase rate-lock volumes cooling in late February. However, when rates ticked down closer to 6% early in the month, we saw a rebound of buyside demand. On the other side of the equation, we’ve seen a consistent theme of potential sellers – many with first-lien rates a full 3 percentage points below today’s offerings – pulling back from putting their homes on the market. In fact, January marked the fourth consecutive monthly decline in overall for-sale inventory according to our Collateral Analytics data, with the primary driver being a 25-month stretch of new listing volumes running below pre-pandemic averages. While demand remains weak, faltering supply has resulted in months of available inventory stagnating near 3.1 in recent months.
“Sharply rising 30-year rates in February have weakened home affordability, with nearly all major U.S. markets remaining unaffordable as compared to their own long-run averages. With 30-year rates at 6.5% in late February, it took 33.2% of the median household income to make the monthly principal and interest payments on the average home purchase. That’s up from January’s 32.4% and significantly above the 30-year average of ~24%, but still 3.5 percentage points below the 37% level reached in October 2022 when affordability hit a more than 35-year low. Between escalating inventory challenges and worsening affordability, we’re seeing some volatility in the market – just not in the form of widespread, steep price corrections.”
Congress is looking at a tax credit to incentivize builders to renovate homes in blighted areas. In many areas, the cost to renovate is more than the price the property could fetch on the market, so nothing happens. “We must continue to make it more attractive to invest in the communities that need it most,” Mr. Cardin said in a written statement. Mr. Young said the bill would help restore communities by directing private capital to low-income neighborhoods,” bridging the gap between the cost of renovation and neighborhood property values.” The bill hopes to see 500,000 new homes added to inventory.
Filed under: Economy |
You don’t say.
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Oh the humanity!
https://citizenfreepress.com/breaking/chuck-schumer-suffers-j6-meltdown-on-senate-floor/
The hyperbole around this footage is absolutely fascinating. I cannot think of a parrallel in history to this desire to suppress things. The same people that are convinced the government killed Kennedy, Malcom X and MLK also think the government is pure in it’s motives now? Really? No room at all for doubt?
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That is the sound of a narrative collapsing.
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The same government that used the FBI to defeat Hillary is pure as the wind driven snow on January 6th. I think what the left really fears isn’t the collapse of their narrative but the fact that their narrative was never recognized outside of their bubble. That the overwhelming majority of Americans see no nefarious actions by the 1/6’rs, just some justifiably disgruntled people staging a protest.
I also love the Never Trumpers and the left pointing to a low attended CPAC as an indication of the waning enthusiasm for Republican’s. Why would any Republican get within a hundred miles of D.C. considering what the DOJ is doing to any Republican that was with a couple of miles of the Capital on 1/6? Message was sent and received. The good news for the left? There will never be a mass gathering of Republicans for the foreseeable future. Nobody is dumb enough to think that attending a Desantis or Haley or Pompeo rally will be treated differently than those who attended the 1/6 events.
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The real question: In the midst of accusing Carlson of lying, how many lies did Schumer propagate? It’s amazing that, at this late date and after what we all already know, Schumer is still pushing the lie that Sitnik was killed by protestors.
Schumer truly is shameless. And he confirms that old adage that politics is just acting for ugly people.
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The attempt at keeping certain things from the public eye has long been a hallmark of all levels of government (and corporations).
“Loudoun school board will not release report on sexual assaults
By Lauren Lumpkin
Updated February 15, 2023 at 6:57 p.m. EST”
https://www.washingtonpost.com/education/2023/02/14/loudoun-sexual-assaults-internal-report/
What’s changed is that now the MSM is complicit in helping to keep the secrets and calling for censorship.
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Chris Rock’s “Selective Outrage” was perfectly timed to the cultural moment.
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George you’ll love this:
“But I don’t think Trump is going to get the nomination. The ace in the hole reason is that he’s unelectable. Even most of MAGA knows this.”
Says the guy who lost to the guy who won once.
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I’m dissapointed in myself for not being nearly cynical enough about Paul Ryan or any elected Republican. I’d love to know why he thought that he and Romney were electable.
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Oh the irony:
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Every so often I think George might be being a little too paranoid. Then I read this:
https://www.washingtonpost.com/dc-md-va/2023/03/07/capitol-police-tucker-carlson-footage/
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Unless you’re a vocal progressive or a paid lobbyist, you should not be in Washington D.C. for any reason. You are a target to be used as an example.
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Well, I have no interest in protesting so I doubt The Man is after me.
Too many good shows at the 9:30 club and The Anthem to avoid it entirely.
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If you’re a registered Republican or have a history of donating to anybody other than a progressive, or are a lobbyist is wouldn’t be so sanguine about it.
Besides, these two clubs:
https://www.setlist.fm/venue/backdoor-club-tucson-az-usa-3bd7883c.html
https://hotelcongress.com/family/club-congress/
are pristine and top notch venues in which I’ve seen amazing shows from ’82 through ’90. Nothing, other than Whisky-a-go-go when Guns and Roses were the house band can compare.
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the anthem is great.
and I don’t donate not for this particular reason. but it’s a consideration.
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I’ll take “Why faith in our institutions is in the toilet” for $400, Alex.
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If that is true it seems it is a clear violation of discovery rules and his sentence should be overturned. Although he pleaded out, so not sure how that effects discovery rules.
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Republican Senators crying like little bitches about Tucker Carlson is everything you need to know. The party has been broken for a while and aside from their rather half-hearted attempts to slow down Democrats, what reason do they give for supporting them?
https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2023/3/7/2156778/-Tucker-Carlson-s-lies-about-Jan-6-draw-some-Republican-pushback-but-plenty-of-cheerleading
Do they think their Republicans base fetishizes them even half as much as they fetishize themselves? It’s so fucking nauseating.
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“The American people saw what happened on Jan. 6.” Romney told reporters.
If that is true, then why all the fainting couches over the release of the full videos?
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Because Republican establishment’s real enemy is the Republican base. Once you realize that everything they’ve done since, say, 2010 makes sense.
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Yeah, them Nazi’s were Potemkin Village constructors from way back.
In fact, the word “Nazi” is a contraction of the two words “Potemkin Village”.
What a ‘tard.
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Nobody projects like the left. Nobody.
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As always…everything they accuse their opponents of is exactly what they are doing.
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How dare you piss on our Reichstag Fire!
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Lol
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GOP pollster, y’all.
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With friends like this who needs enemies?
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It’s especially funny in that Tucker hates Trump.
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That which is not prohibited will be mandatory!
https://thefederalist.com/2023/03/07/if-connecticut-and-washington-democrats-get-their-way-voting-will-become-mandatory/
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Once again, men are better at being women than women are.
https://redstate.com/bonchie/2023/03/08/clown-world-white-house-awards-a-man-the-women-of-courage-award-n713541
It’s really not a contest anymore.
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Republicans should counter by asking for a 90% cap gains tax on anything above a million. Fuck it, these billionaires need to choke on the Democrats they support.
https://12ft.io/proxy?q=https%3A%2F%2Fwww.aljazeera.com%2Feconomy%2F2023%2F3%2F9%2Fbiden-to-propose-25-percent-minimum-tax-on-billionaires
They won’t of course, low taxes for their donors is their driving force.
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The men of the left are certainly better at invading women’s spaces, suppressing women, taking away that was meant uniquely for women–and so taking away their right to peacefully assemble and free association–while forcing women to do all the actual labor of depriving women of their previous rights and privileges.
The new transiarchy is more hostile and hateful of biological women than the old, boring “patriarchy” ever was.
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It’s breathtaking in its scope. I admire their ability.
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