Morning Report: Luxury Home Sales Fall

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures3,836-25.75
Oil (WTI)78.92 0.54
10 year government bond yield 3.89%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 6.53%

Stocks are lower this morning as we round out a year most market participants would love to forget. Bonds and MBS are down.

The bond market closes early today, and volumes should be light as everyone heads into the long weekend.

The Chicago PMI showed the economy contracting for the fourth consecutive month, although the rate of decline decelerated in December.

Luxury home sales fell 38% over the past 3 months – the biggest decline on record according to Redfin. The areas experiencing the biggest declines were Nassau County (think the Hamptons), San Diego, San Jose, Riverside, and Anaheim.

Luxury homes probably correlate pretty tightly with the fortunes of the stock market, and are often looked at as investments. With home prices beginning to decline potential buyers are pulling in their horns.

With the mortgage banks so battered over the past year, I am wondering if they might be good candidates for the January Effect.

Wishing everyone a happy and prosperous new year.

7 Responses

  1. Impressively blatant framing, even from the Post.

    “House panel releases Trump tax returns in another setback for former president

    The Democratic-led panel released the financial documents for six years, capping a protracted legal and political battle that could have been prevented had Donald Trump released his returns voluntarily. Check back for updates as our reporters read the documents.

    By Marianna Sotomayor, Rosalind S. Helderman, Julie Zauzmer Weil, Toluse Olorunnipa, Jonathan O’Connell and Michael Kranish”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/12/30/trump-tax-returns-congress

    I’m looking forward to seeing the “could have been prevented” approach applied to other news stories, i.e. “Kiev was without power again today due to Russian missile strikes, which could have been prevented had Zelenskyy simply given in to Russia’s demands in February of 2022.”

    Like

    • Given his gazillion LLCs there is no way anyone will be able to disentangle it without his help. That said, the left has its narrative and that is all that matters.

      Like

    • This could be a fun exercise:

      “SCOTUS keeps Title 42 in place indefinitely, ending a protracted legal battle that could have been avoided if Biden was willing to enforce immigration law.”

      “House votes to impeach Clinton, a process that could have been avoided if Clinton didn’t lie under oath.”

      “Roe v Wade overturned after 50 years, a ruling that could have been avoided if SCOTUS applied the Constitution back in 1972.”

      Like

      • “Pearl Harbor was attacked by the Japanese today, which could have been prevented if President Roosevelt had not instituted an oil embargo against Japan”

        Like

        • “Following months of parliamentary debate, British troops arrived today in Boston Harbor, which could have been avoided if the colonials had just paid the tea tax.”

          “After years of negotiations with Rome, King Henry VIII officially renounced papal authority and created the Church of England today, an eventuality that could have been avoided had the Pope simply annulled Henry’s marriage to Catherine of Aragon.”

          Like

  2. That the Feds keep denying Ray Epps is fascinating to me.

    They’re lying, we know they’re lying
    And they know we know they’re lying.

    And they still lie.

    Like

  3. It’s weird that the disruptive tactics weren’t effective in increasing their membership.

    https://www.reuters.com/business/environment/extinction-rebellion-uk-halt-disruptive-protests-2023-01-01/

    Like

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