Morning Report: Third quarter GDP surprises to the upsid

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures3,85516.25
Oil (WTI)89.301.38
10 year government bond yield 3.97%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 7.00%

Stocks are higher this morning after the GDP report. Bonds and MBS are up as well.

The advance estimate for third quarter GDP came in at 2.6%, an uptick from the 0.6% decline in the second quarter. The increase was driven by an uptick in consumption as well as government spending. Housing was a drag. Trade was also a positive contributor as exports increased and imports decreased. Personal consumption expenditures rose 1.4%. Both numbers were better than expected, which put a bid under stocks.

The report contained some good news on inflation. The PCE price index rose 4.2% compared to an increase of 7.3% in the second quarter. Ex-food and energy, the PCE index rose 4.5% compared to 4.7% in the second quarter. The inflation news pushed the 10 year bond yield back below 4%.

In other economic data, durable goods orders rose 0.4%, which was below expectations. Ex-transportation they fell 0.5%. Core capital goods (a proxy for business capital investment) also declined. Initial jobless claims ticked up marginally to 217k, which is historically a very low number.

Homebuyer affordability declined in September, according to the MBA. “Homebuyer affordability took an enormous hit in September, with the 75-basis-point jump in mortgage rates leading to the typical homebuyer’s monthly payment rising $102 from August,” said Edward Seiler, MBA Associate Vice President of Housing Economics, and Executive Director with Research Institute for Housing America. “With mortgage rates continuing to rise, the purchasing power of borrowers is shrinking. The median loan amount in September was $305,550 – much lower than the February peak of $340,000.”

New home sales continue to decline. In September, new home sales came in at 603,000, which was a decline of 10.9% compared to August and 17.6% from a year ago.

17 Responses

  1. Play stupid games, win stupid prizes.


    • “LA is this way because we, as a country, haven’t dealt with the housing crisis instigated by Ronald Reagan. If you have no place to go you are going to go to where the weather is less a factor.”

      Good lord it’s still Reagan’s fault.


  2. Good read:

    “The Democrats’ Climate Problem
    How Trying to Solve a Real Problem Turned into Political Kryptonite

    Ruy Teixeira”


    • The thing that pisses me off more than anything is that the left WANTS high fossil fuel prices to encourage conservation and to “internalize the externalities” of fossil fuel usage.

      But they will deny, deny, deny that is what they really want. Instead you have dipshits like Reich and Warren saying this is price gouging.

      You wanted this. You asked for this. Accept the consequences.


  3. And here we go:

    “Elon Musk Announces He Bought Twitter in $44 Billion Deal”


  4. Not the Onion:

    “Kanye West allegedly wanted to call his 2018 album ‘Hitler’

    By Eileen Reslen
    October 27, 2022 ”


  5. The responses.


  6. The media doubles down on the “disability” narrative for both Biden and Fetterman:


    • Well, it makes sense as the Gimp was a pretty powerful force in Pulp Fiction, so…


    • that’s the way we should do elections. apply victimhood totem pole handicaps.

      If the candidate is female, she gets spotted a 1 ppt lead
      if the candidate is lgbtq, they get spotted 3 ppts
      if the candidate is disabled, that is worth 20.

      Any mention of these from the other side automatically docks the candidate 2 ppts.


  7. Lol!

    In fairness, Trump cratered the economy when he listened to Fauci.


Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: