Morning Report: The MBA sees origination volume falling 9% in 2023

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures3,78924.50
Oil (WTI)83.27-1.89
10 year government bond yield 4.19%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 7.12%

Stocks are higher as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are up.

The upcoming week has a lot of important economic data. Tomorrow, we will get the FHFA House Price Index for August. Lots of mortgage bankers are looking at this number and trying to game what the new conforming loan limits will become after the September index level gets reported.

We will get new home sales, consumer confidence, GDP, personal incomes and outlays, and consumer sentiment. The personal incomes and outlays contains the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index which is the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation.

The MBA sees 2023 origination volume declining 9% to $2.05 trillion. “Next year will be particularly challenging for the U.S. and global economies. The sharp increase in interest rates this year – a consequence of the Federal Reserve’s efforts to slow inflation, will lead to an equally sharp slowdown in the economy, matching the downturn that is happening right now in the housing market,” said Fratantoni. “MBA’s forecast calls for a recession in the first half of next year, driven by tighter financial conditions, reduced business investment, and slower global growth. As a result, the unemployment rate will increase from its current rate of 3.5 percent to 5.5 percent by the end of the year. Inflation will gradually decline towards the Fed’s 2 percent target by the middle of 2024.”

The MBA sees home price appreciation declining to about zero next year. That said, the supply issue (or lack thereof) will remain an issue. The MBA forecasts that the number of jobs in the industry will contract some 25%-30% from peak levels.

We will get GDP on Wednesday, and the consensus seems to be that growth will be in the mid-to-high 2% range. The negative growth of Q1 and Q2 probably overstated the economic weakness, and this report will probably overstate growth. Retail sales bounced back in Q3, and that drove the increase in the Atlanta Fed’s GDP Now index.

Finance of America is getting out of the forward mortgage business but will continue to do reverse mortgages. The specialty finance and services products such as fix and flip will continue as well.

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