Morning Report: Strong jobs report

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,112-40.25
Oil (WTI)88.93-0.36
10 year government bond yield 2.82%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.33%

Stocks are lower this morning after the hot employment situation report. Bonds and MBS are down.

The July employment situation report was exceptionally strong. The economy added 528,000 jobs and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.5%. Job gains were most pronounced in leisure / hospitality and business / professional services. The unemployment rate is back to pre-pandemic levels. The interesting thing is that the labor force participation rate and the employment-population ratios remain well below their pre-pandemic peaks.

Average hourly earnings seem to be accelerating again. Month over month, average hourly earnings rose 0.5%, which was a pickup from the 0.3% reported in June. On an annual basis, they rose 5.2%.

Bottom line: the labor market is strengthening, not weakening. This makes the Fed’s job harder, but it also means that any recession we get will fell milder than normal.

Rocket reported second quarter numbers yesterday. Volume was down a whopping 58% on a YOY basis, although gain on sale margins improved. Earnings per share came in at $0.02. Like most originators, servicing income has offset declining origination income. The company continues to build out its ancillary businesses such as Rocket Homes and Rocket Money.

Rocket has been hit by the disappearance of the rate / term refinance, but purchases are suffering too as a combination of higher home prices and higher rates dampen buyer sentiment. The company has been cutting costs, but it will also maintain some excess capacity so it can grow in the future.

32 Responses

    • Guess virtue-signaling has a cost now.


    • The reaction to get a tiny fraction of the illegal aliens they support flooding the southern states in their own home cities is predictable yet still pathetic. The media’s bias and hypocrisy regarding their reporting is also hypocritical and pathetic.

      Good for those governors, though.


  1. I didn’t realize this was in the infrastructure bill.


    • As a member of Drunks Against Mad Mothers, I oppose this


    • Not sure this should be legislated in a federal bill but as a mother of a 21 year old, back in the day (she’s 40 now), driving under the influence, even though she thought she was perfectly capable, didn’t work out too well for her. The DUI nearly derailed her entire life even though no one was injured, and there wasn’t even an accident……………I kind of think, as responsible as she is, she might not have gotten behind that wheel. Who knows though. We just had a horrific accident here in So Cal where a nurse was driving a BMW at a high rate of speed, drove through a red light and killed a husband, wife, 1 year old and fetus. We don’t know yet if she was drunk but I’m pretty sure she would take this back if she could……………..who knows? Maybe the Nanny State has a good idea now and then?


      • “Maybe the Nanny State has a good idea now and then?”

        Sure. But it should always be a battle. It should be the legislative branches squaring off against the executive branch and the judicial branch and so on. Most nanny state ideas that find their way to policy need to be traceable to an elected official who can be voted against.

        IMO. Consent of the governed. Wouldn’t mind if nanny state idea were done state to state and put up as propositions to be voted on. Do I want one guy who considers himself an expert or one agency full of people who feel they are experts deciding how the general public should be ruled over? I do not. I’d want those people to be largely powerless. Or elected to their positions.


      • And in terms of it being legislated in a federal bill, I’m also fine with that. In its own bill. Something called the “You Can’t Drive Your Car Drunk Anymore” bill. Make it about what it is. Have people vote on it. Then it becomes law or doesn’t, standing on its own.

        My concern here would be with what happens when the technology fails? You can’t drive your car? You have to have it towed somewhere for repair? Does the bill compensate you for having to tow a car you could otherwise drive because the blood-alcohol detector was on the fritz?

        My other concern is that there is no limit to the safety improvements that could made to cars, so slippery slope and all that.


        • I wonder what would happen if someone bypassed the interlock system, and then killed someone.

          Would the auto company be liable?


        • Ulitmately I think as self-driving technology improves we are heading for a subscription based model for individual transportation.

          Would you pay $500 a month to be able to summon a car within 15 minutes? I think when you take into account the car payment, insurance, gas, parking and tolls, it will probably be cheaper.

          There is so much unused capacity in the current individual car owner model.

          And that will ultimately end the drunk driving argument once and for all.


      • Anne Heche just had a wreck and was thought to be drunk at the time. Apparently she’s burned pretty badly.


      • lms:

        Maybe the Nanny State has a good idea now and then?



        • The nanny state also has had some bad brain farts.

          The food pyramid was the perfect example of government trying to “do good” and fucking everything up. The government more or less creating the diabetes epidemic with a couple generations of horrible diet advice.

          Eat carbs! Don’t eat meat! Fat makes you fat!

          All wrong. 100% wrong.


        • Follow the science! Four legs good, two legs bad!


        • The common wisdom about cholesterol is in that same camp. And was advanced by some of the same people, who were sure they were right about things and worked to get their opinions the weight of official government endorsement. Thus avoiding a lot of problematic peer review and consensus-building around the main assumption (cholesterol is bad, leads to heart disease or hardening of the arteries, must be lowered and doing it pharmaceutically is fine).

          Michael Crichton, in talking about climate change, brought up the US history of forest and land management and how ineffective or counterproductive it had been. We believe we know things we don’t snd can manage things we can’t.

          Also lobbyist had some input into how the food pyramid looks. Can’t forget the role incentives play in shaping nanny-state “wisdom”.


        • It all boils down to the weird belief that man can be perfected.


        • And that you’ll get the perfection first time out. BECAUSE YOU’RE JUST THAT GOOD.


      • “Maybe the Nanny State has a good idea now and then?”

        It would be nice to at least know what’s in the bill. Before I found this, did anyone else have any idea that this provision was passed into law?


        • Nope, and the fact the left didn’t mention it says that people are probably against it.


  2. Funny and subversive.

    ” Critics of the move expressed concern this may hamper the FBI’s ability to organize governor kidnapping schemes, insurrections, and mass shootings.”


  3. If you’ve done nothing wrong, you’ll have nothing to worry about.

    “Can you understand how 87,000 new IRS agents would scare the heck out of millions of Americans?”

    Democrat Sen. Ben Cardin: “If there’s no reason to be fearful, and if you paid your taxes and if you complied with our laws, you should want to make sure everyone else does that.”

    Cardin echoing Goebbels. I’m sure he thought his part was benevolent as well.


  4. Why is he testing if he’s asymptomatic?

    Sunday happy Sunday.
    2 vaccinations
    2 boosters
    2nd COVID
    0 symptoms


    • McWing:

      Why is he testing if he’s asymptomatic?

      Why are people testing even if they are symptomatic? If you feel sick, stay home. I mean, are people with symptoms who test negative saying to themselves “Well, I guess it OK to sneeze and cough on other people, since I am negative?”

      I’ve never seen so many lefties so anxious to put money into the pockets of big corporations.


  5. Taibbi on the FBI raid..Welcome to the third world:

    I am not and never will be a Donald Trump supporter. If and when he runs for president, I’ll go through the long list of reasons I have for feeling that way. But as a journalist it’s become impossible to believe that the endless investigations of Trump over the last six years have become anything but a permanent feature of his political opposition. That truth begins with the Trump-Russia scandal, which we now know was a hoax pursued as a real crime by a compromised police apparatus, after being concocted by Democrats.


  6. BTW, is it tedious to note yet again that the Dems seem to be doing everything that they accuse Trump/the right of wanting to do?


    • It is amazing the degree that they can’t see it.

      That said, Trump’s “locker her up” encouragement regarding HRC was something I did not like and when he won I was glad he didn’t take the opportunity to go after her—or any political enemies—using the power of the state.

      Clearly the left, ironically, lacks Trump’s judicious and prudential restraint. In terms of actual actions.


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