Morning Report: Job cuts tick up

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,1615.25
Oil (WTI)90.93-0.20
10 year government bond yield 2.69%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.45%

Stocks are higher this morning after yesterday’s rally. Bonds and MBS are up.

US employers announced 25,810 job cuts in July, according to outplacement firm Challenger, Gray and Christmas. This is down 21% from June but up about 36% compared to a year ago. For the first 7 months of the year, companies announced about 159,000 job cut which is a series low going back to 1993.

Automakers, retailers and financial firms were the biggest sectors announcing layoffs. “The job market remains tight, and large-scale layoffs have not begun. There are some indicators that hiring is slowing after months of growth, however,” said Andrew Challenger, Senior Vice President of Challenger, Gray & Christmas, Inc. “Job cut levels are nowhere near where they were in the 2001 and 2008 recessions right now, though they may be ticking up. If we’re in a recession, we have yet to feel it in the labor market,” said Challenger.

Separately, initial jobless claims continue to tick up. There were 260k initial claims last week, an increase from 254k the week before.

PennyMac Financial services reported that volumes fell 20% QOQ and 56% YOY to $26.7 billion. Like most originators out there, servicing income is making up for lost origination income. This shows the benefit of retaining servicing as a hedge for the origination business.

That said, with rates seeming to level out here, and a plethora of mortgage banks looking to sell servicing portfolios to increase liquidity, I suspect we might be at peak valuations for mortgage servicing rights. Delinquencies are low, but will almost certainly increase if the job market deteriorates.

The US Homeownership rate ticked up from 65.4% in the first quarter to 65.8% in the second quarter, according to the Census Bureau. The rental vacancy rate ticked down from 5.8% to 5.6%.

10 Responses

  1. Gavin Newsome, trying to convince Hollywood to shun red states for California.

    “You can protect your workers, or continue to support anti-abortion states that rule with hatred.”

    But it is people on the right who are “divisive” figures, right?


    • Taibbi had a great quip about him: “Presidential in hair only”

      But yes: “Divisive” means not doing what the left wants. Just like “our democracy” means the democrats and winning elections


    • Divisive? It’s more just stupid. It’s politically alienating. So if you’re trying to speak to anyone outside of your hardcore base, you don’t say that kind of stuff. “That rule with hatred” is just dumb. They could say “states that don’t prioritize reproductive healthcare” or “states that don’t care about a woman’s right to make their own decisions” or, you know, something not as stupid as “or you can continue to support evil states that continue to rule with evil because they are literally Hitler and hate puppies and rainbows.”


      • To me, “divisive” is classic leftist crybully behavior.

        How dare you bomb Tokyo after all we did was justifiably attack Pearl Harbor! Think about the children!


  2. How shall we ever manage?

    Workers, stay strong and hold out for fundamental change!


  3. What I love is the belief that there is any type of R on R fight going on. Cheney is reviled by the right – there is no intra party conflict regarding her.


    • The left vastly overestimates Trump’s influence on things, IMO.

      R voters like candidates who are willing to punch the left in the mouth. Not candidates who suck up to them.


    • Even if I agreed with her this is not what I want our congresscritters doing. So no I’d think this decision should end her congressional career, period.


Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: