Morning Report: Existing Home Sales Fall

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures3,9483.15
Oil (WTI)102.441.95
10 year government bond yield 2.97%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.78%

Stocks are flattish this morning as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are up.

Mortgage applications fell 6.3% last week as purchases fell 7% and refis fell 4%. “Mortgage applications declined for the third week in a row, reaching the lowest level since 2000. Similarly, with most mortgage rates more than two percentage points higher than a year ago, demand for refinances continues to plummet, with MBA’s refinance index also falling to a 22-year low,” said Joel Kan, MBA’s Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Purchase activity declined for both conventional and government loans, as the weakening economic outlook, high inflation, and persistent affordability challenges are impacting buyer demand. The decline in recent purchase applications aligns with slower homebuilding activity due to reduced buyer traffic and ongoing building material shortages and higher costs.”

You can see the chart below of the MBA refinance index hitting lows last seen around 2000.

Existing Home Sales fell 5.4% in June, according to the National Association of Realtors. This is the fifth decline in a row. Sales fell 14.2% YOY to a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 5.1 million. “Falling housing affordability continues to take a toll on potential home buyers,” said NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun. “Both mortgage rates and home prices have risen too sharply in a short span of time.”

The median home price rose 13.4% to $416,000. Days on market hit a record low of 14 days. “Finally, there are more homes on the market,” Yun added. “Interestingly though, the record-low pace of days on market implies a fuzzier picture on home prices. Homes priced right are selling very quickly, but homes priced too high are deterring prospective buyers.”

23 Responses

  1. The trial sketches of Steve Bannon are a scream!

    Love how they captured his insolence. Also, notice the defiant tossing of his mask!


  2. Lol!


  3. Abbott has to be paying for this media, doesn’t he?


  4. Good to see KosKidz keeping things in perspective.

    But before we move on, it’s worth another look at the scale of what Manchin has done. Because thanks to this single man, there’s a good chance that millions, and possibly billions, or people will die. All so Joe Manchin can keep pocketing $500 a year on a contract to sell the dirtiest coal possible.


    • billions will die….all because Joe Manchin won’t vote for Build Back Better.

      And I suppose women and trans BIPOC people will be most affected.


  5. Legend.


  6. Totally nailed it in this diary because up till Putin and 2022, Italy’s government has been so stable.


  7. Bret Stephens gives a tepid mea culpa.


    • Interesting. I’m surprised that’s in the NYT. Can’t read the comments in Brave (cuz no JavaScript) so I’m wondering how negative the reaction is.


    • Logged in under my Gmail account.

      Comments are what I expected.

      “You weren’t wrong; they are appalling. I’m sick to death of all these attempts to elevate monsters who laugh uproariously every time they hear about a non-white person being murdered. These people send death threats to survivors of sexual assault and school shootings. They are the lowest forms of life on earth and the worst people in the history of mankind.”

      Best part is a series of two comments my two different people. First one: “Get off it with the Steele dossier, nobody ever took that seriously” and the one immediately after it says Trump only won because of a perfect storm of events, the 3rd example in a series of three being “Putin’s interference in the election”.


      • I’m sick to death of all these attempts to elevate monsters who laugh uproariously every time they hear about a non-white person being murdered

        I guarantee they are referring to people who joke about the “be careful what you wish for” regarding defund the police.


        • I have yet to hear anybody laughing uproariously over people being murdered. And “careful what you wish for” tends to apply more to white liberals in my experience.


      • These people engage in such intellectual dishonesty that i take none of their arguments seriously.


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