Morning Report: The manufacturing economy is weakening

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures3,780-9.75
Oil (WTI)108.64-0.94
10 year government bond yield 2.88%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.79%

Stocks are lower this morning as we kick off the third quarter. Bonds and MBS are up. The first half of the year was the worst for the S&P 500 since 1970.

The bond market closes early today at 2:00 pm. Liquidity should be lousy as most of the street will be on the LIE by noon.

The Fed Funds futures are beginning to handicap some chance of a 50 basis point hike at the Fed meeting this month. The current futures contracts imply a 28% chance of 50 bps and a 72% chance of 75.

The manufacturing economy decelerated in June according to the ISM Manufacturing Index. This is the lowest ISM reading since June 2020. New Orders and Employment contracted, which indicates that the economy is slowing down.

“The U.S. manufacturing sector continues to be powered — though less so in June — by demand while held back by supply chain constraints. Despite the Employment Index contracting in May and June, companies improved their progress on addressing moderate-term labor shortages at all tiers of the supply chain, according to Business Survey Committee respondents’ comments. Panelists reported lower rates of quits compared to May. Prices expansion slightly eased for a third straight month in June, but instability in global energy markets continues. Sentiment remained optimistic regarding demand, with three positive growth comments for every cautious comment. Panelists continue to note supply chain and pricing issues as their biggest concerns.”

Construction spending fell 0.1% MOM in May but is still up 9.7% on a YOY basis. Residential construction rose 0.2% MOM and is up 18.7% on a YOY basis.

Overall, it looks like the economy is beginning to slow down and we should start seeing more confirmation in indicators like the jobs report next week. The big question for the stock market will be earnings season which kicks off in a couple of weeks with the big banks. If Q2 earnings are better than expected maybe we could start to put in a base under the stock market.

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