Morning Report: Earnings season kicks off this week

Vital Statistics:

 LastChange
S&P futures3,876-24.25
Oil (WTI)103.06-1.74
10 year government bond yield 3.03%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 5.83%

Stocks are lower this morning as we begin an important week for data. Bonds and MBS are up.

Ordinarily, the week after the jobs report is data-light. This week that is not the case. This week kicks off earnings season, with a lot of the big banks reporting. Second, we will get the Consumer Price Index on Wednesday, which is now one of the most important economic reports out there. Finally, we will have the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey. Historically, these consumer sentiment surveys have generally been non-events as far as markets go, but the Fed is focusing on the inflationary expectations embedded in the report. In fact, that report loomed large in the Fed’s decision to move from 50 basis points to 75.

The stock market is down pretty big from its heights of earlier this year. Do we bottom here? IMO the stock market’s behavior is the classic bear market before a recession playbook. Going forward, earnings season will matter a lot. While I don’t generally talk too much about currencies (they generally aren’t relevant to mortgage banking) the US dollar has been quite strong this year.

This is factoring into earnings for companies with big overseas operations. As a general rule, as the dollar rises, corporate earnings fall. So this increase in USD will be a big factor this earnings season. Microsoft has already warned that the US dollar will take a bite out of profits. Chip shortages and currencies will definitely affect the automakers. The fear in stock market investors is that earnings estimates are still too high and need to drop further.

The profit outlook for banks will be dented by mortgage banking. Wells indicated at a conference that Q2 mortgage banking profits will be down about 50% from Q1. Companies are aggressively cutting staff, and it looks like there probably will be more to come: “Over the next month or two we’ll see the bulk of layoffs,” said Doug Duncan, chief economist at Fannie Mae, which, along with Freddie Mac, backs many U.S. mortgages. “There is usually about a six-month lag between a turn in the market and layoffs.” While Wells and JPM are struggling in mortgage banking, apparently Bank of America has not cut staff. They saw mortgage banking revenue increase in Q1, unlike most of their compatriots.

33 Responses

  1. Good:

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    • Still find it strange no BC pills exist for men.

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      • FYI

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        • i wonder what the feminist left is going to think once male contraceptives exist and baby-trapping is no longer a thing.

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        • I’m all for baby-trapping. You do the thing that makes a baby, you’re on the hook for it. Don’t want to be on the hook for that baby? Keep it in your pants, dude.

          Also I can’t imaging make contraceptives won’t mess with T-levels amongst other things. All sort of dudes avoid soy because it’s estrogenic. What are they going to do with something that neuters their sperm?

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        • I was referring to baby trapping fraud.

          I would support mandatory paternity tests on all newborns, but the feminist left would go apeshit.

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    • didn’t read the article, but the objection has been:
      1) docs want that office visit to bill
      2) mandating insurance coverage and no-cost sharing.

      if you make it OTC, insurance doesn’t cover that.
      but i recall arguing in favor at the PL in the run up to the ACA. even had ACOG backing me. didn’t matter. party of science my ass.

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  2. OTC BC pill would be a bonus to so many women. It’s like condoms on steroids. If I was 17 again and that had been available without embarrassing myself at that young age going to a doc for an RX for BC, I would have been all over that.

    If you want to decrease abortions (believe it or not we all do) then OTC BC and morning after pills will help to accomplish that goal. BTW, abortion at the time of birth is a myth, it just doesn’t happen. Most women support abortion with restrictions.

    Also this,

    Well, those that don’t kill the next generation in utero do, anyway.

    Gaslighting much Scott???

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    • If you want to decrease abortions (believe it or not we all do)

      Serious question, why do we want to decrease abortions? If one accepts that a fetus is not a person, or at least until it reaches a certain gestational age, why would should you care if the number of abortions are lower or higher? Isn’t it just another form or birth-control? All birth control has risks, I’m pretty sure abortion isn’t any more risky that IUD’s for example. So why would it matter if one thinks abortion should be legal?

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      • One reason everyone should want to decrease abortions is (anti-pregnancy rhetoric aside) an invasive surgical procedure and thus a health risk. Also abortions are not great for the mental health of many of the women who receive them.

        Another reason would be regarding rape, incest and life of the mother. Or genetic defects in the child. In those cases where there are reasons beyond post-facto birth control, you would want to decrease the number of those motivations to have abortions.

        Other reasons could include less abortions meaning less promiscuous sex or better and easier to access birth control is available.

        I can think of reasons to want to see fewer abortions beyond the life of the fetus.

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    • I think the problem with OTC birth control is that it can fuck with your hormones so it’s (theoretically) good to have a doctor involved. Morning after pills may be less problematic (and also—do those require a prescription?). In general I’m all for morning after pills.

      Anyway, it’s not hard or particularly embarrassing for kids to get BC today. There are plenty of medical justifications for BC beyond sexual activity. Just show up and complain about erratic menstruation.

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      • Birth control pills are less risky than taking Advil.

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        • Well, I think that depends on how often you take Advil. Yes, there is a lot of risk associated with taking Advil on a daily basis for years, and more than taking daily birth control pills for years. But if you take Advil for the occasional headache, it certainly isn’t more risky than taking birth control pills. In fact, many years ago my wife was advised by her doctor to stop taking birth control pills and switch to a different method because she was developing migraine headaches and there was some substantial risk indicated by migraines caused by the pill. The doctor did not, however, advise her to stop taking Advil when she gets the migraines.

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        • I think Advil gets a bad rap. Also there are lots of methods of birth control. All have some risk but life is about trade-offs. Abortions are risky as is a lot of sex with multiple partners. Pregnancy is risky too. Abortions and pregnancies likely present more risks for people than taking BC in most cases.

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        • To the extent you are evaluating the risk associated with making birth control pills available over the counter, it seems like a relevant comparison.

          As NoVA notes preventing birth control from being available over the counter is mostly about the combination of moral opprobrium for the drug’s use and a financial incentive for doctors.

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        • jnc:

          As NoVA notes preventing birth control from being available over the counter is mostly about the combination of moral opprobrium for the drug’s use and a financial incentive for doctors.

          Agreed. I have no problem with OTC birth control pills. I just wasn’t sure about the blanket statement about relative safety.

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    • lms:

      Gaslighting much Scott???

      Huh?

      I have no idea what you think that word means. But if, as your use of it here implies, you think that women who abort their babies are “giving birth to the next generation”, then it appears that “gaslighting” is not the only word the meaning of which you don’t understand.

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      • Well, they might. It’s not uncommon for people who get abortions earlier in life to have children (preferably to be raised by the state or nannies) later in life.

        But gaslighting is trying to intentionally make people feel crazy, which is definitely not what you’re doing, IMO. You haven’t flipped the lights on and off and told us it didn’t happen once!

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        • KW:

          Well, they might.

          Obviously it is true that a person can do contradictory things at different points in their life.

          My point was simply to note the irony in admiring women as the producers of the next generation within the context of defending legal abortion. If that irony is lost on some people, c’est la vie.

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    • lms:

      If you want to decrease abortions (believe it or not we all do…)

      I don’t believe it and neither should you.

      People who run Planned Parenthood don’t want to decrease abortions. Nor do people who object to and try to destroy crisis pregnancy centers, which provide aid to pregnant women in an effort to convince them not to abort their babies. I also doubt people who claim to be “proud” to have gotten an abortion want fewer of them. (Who wants less of something one can be “proud” of?)

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      • I think most people don’t want more abortions. And I expect most people want less. Planned Parenthood, obviously not–it’s its business model. Which is why abortions should be performed by medical doctors, like a DNC. There shouldn’t be clinics whose primary business is abortions. It’s the wrong incentive.

        The “proud of my abortions” folks are mentally ill. And they are a small, if loud, and overly-amplified minority (by both sides). But outside of our elites, the World Economic Forum, the expert class, and professional activists (and of course Planned Parenthood) I don’t expect that many people want more abortions and I expect most people would prefer less.

        And while apparently more people are getting abortions recently than in, say, 2017–the number of abortions has generally declined since 1990. So if they want more abortions, they generally haven’t been getting it.

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        • KW:

          But outside of our elites, the World Economic Forum, the expert class, and professional activists (and of course Planned Parenthood) I don’t expect that many people want more abortions and I expect most people would prefer less.

          I think that it is probably more accurate to say that people want fewer unwanted/unexpected pregnancies. But given the fact of an unwanted pregnancies, I think there is a significant contingent of people who would rather see more than less abortions in such cases. That is why, I think, crisis pregnancy centers which encourage women with unexpected/unwanted pregnancies not to get abortions are so often demonized by the political pro-choice movement.

          If pro-choice people genuinely desired fewer abortions, they would support organizations that take steps to encourage women not to choose abortion, even as they argued to keep that choice available legally. But I’m not aware of many (or any) who do.

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    • lms:

      Most women support abortion with restrictions.

      Well, then, “most women” should welcome the demise of the Roe regime, which prevented the imposition of even the kinds of restrictions that are common in places like the UK and Europe.

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      • I love how Pew reports on this:

        Currently, 61% say abortion should be legal in all or most cases, while 37% say it should be illegal in all or most cases.

        In what world of meaningful statistics would a serious polling firm ever lump together the “legal in all” and “legal in most” cases?

        But 63% of women are in the “legal in all or most cases” camp, which is close to “most” women. 58% of men are same. According to Pew. Although I’d like the “all cases” broken out of the “most cases” because “most cases” might be before 15 weeks or health of the mother and rape and incest. I’ll bet good money “all cases” (which implies up to the point of birth) is not anything close to 63%. They have no metric for “legal in some cases” or any other metric that might possibly suggesting people support abortion–with serious limitations.

        I wonder why that’s missing.

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    • lms:

      BTW, abortion at the time of birth is a myth

      Then there is no reason to object to laws that make them illegal!

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      • Obviously. The people basically advocating for this (or late term abortions, or partial birth abortions) don’t do the pro-choice movement any favors, and alienate a lot of the core supporters of legal abortion–basically the safe, legal and rare crowd the Democrats owned in the 90s.

        While some on the right will do the same thing by advocating against morning after pills or IUDs because they prevent implantation of the embryo (and a few nuts that will get lots of news coverage might well agitate against any form of birth control). But abortion is low on the list of priority issues for voters and following around SCOTUS justices and “getting in their face” when they go out to eat or go to the store is not going to elevate it.

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  3. Still my all time Trump flex on Cinco de Mayo.

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  4. I’m dead.

    “TacoX” – lol!

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  5. Jesus, she’s… she’s right.

    Dumbfounding.

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    • Until she gets to the part about who are what is safe, like she’s spending nights walking around the south side of Chicago only it’s murderous Trump supporters waiting to attack her just like they did Jussie.

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