Morning Report: Payrolls disappoint

Vital Statistics:

S&P futures4,6841.2
Oil (WTI)79.450.11
10 year government bond yield 1.75%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.47%

Stocks are flattish after a disappointing payroll number. Bonds and MBS are down small. Global bond yields are rising as well, with the German Bund at nearly a 3-year high and threatening to crawl out of negative territory.

The jobs report was a bit of a mixed, bag, with payrolls coming in below 200k, which was about half of the expected number, and way lower than the 800k reported by ADP. On the bright side, the unemployment rate fell to 3.9%.

The labor force participation rate was steady at 61.9% and the employment-population ratio ticked up 0.2% to 59.5%. Average hourly earnings were up 4.7% YOY. So overall the internals of the report were good. The labor market is doing well, albeit we have fewer employed than before the pandemic.

The FOMC minutes touched on what might be going on – a lot of job losses are probably from early retirements. COVID’s mortality rate is a function of age, and perhaps many people in their early 60s decided to stop working instead of taking the risk of getting sick at the workplace.

The market is still digesting the FOMC minutes and the fact that the Fed is going to be a lot more hawkish. The change in sentiment is most evident in the March Fed Funds Futures, which are now predicting a 70% chance of a 25 basis point hike at the March meeting. A week ago, the market was predicting a a tossup, so this is a big shift.

22 Responses

  1. When someone shows you who they are, believe them:

    “We have to treat those who claim Trump won in precisely the same way we do those who say the Earth is flat or that Hitler had some good ideas. They are not only deluded, they are either participating in, or at the very least directly enabling, an assault on our system of government with terrifying implications for the future. They are the United States’ enemies. And they have to be treated that way.”


    • da comrade, should we send them to gulag or just have them shot?


    • Remember, I’m a good scrounged, look me up when you’re in the camps.


    • hopefully they just exile us to northern new hampshire.


    • jnc:

      When someone shows you who they are, believe them:

      Who wrote that article? (Can’t see WaPo articles.)


      • Paul Waldman. It’s on Plum Line.

        Usually you can refresh and stop the reload by clicking on the X during the process to stop the blocker and then read a piece on the Post.


        • jnc:

          Usually you can refresh and stop the reload by clicking on the X during the process to stop the blocker and then read a piece on the Post.

          Good tip!


    • Indeed. That being said, a lot of the ideas that Hitler had are essentially mainstream Democratic ideas these days—with a notable exception of building global empires by force, and the whole Holocaust thing. But Hitler had a lot of ideas about improving Germany and the welfare of the German people through strong central government. Also a fan of technocratic policy and veganism.

      So while it’s bad to say Hitler had some good ideas it’s apparently fine to embrace a lot of Hitler’s ideas.


      • Liberal fascism.

        and Google is a lot bigger prize for the government than Daimler ever was to the third reich.


  2. Greenwald’s latest is quite good:

    “The Histrionics and Melodrama Around 1/6 Are Laughable, but They Serve Several Key Purposes

    As Kamala Harris compares 1/6 to 9/11 and Nancy Pelosi introduces the cast of Hamilton to sing about democracy, today’s inanity should not obscure its dangers.

    Glenn Greenwald”


  3. LIke 99.9999% of leftist rhetoric, they take something that has a kernel of truth to it, and exaggerate it beyond recognition. They then conflate that kernel of truth and the exaggeration and demand you accept their version of facts. If you disagree, you are denying the kernel of truth.

    They pull the same shit with global warming, privilege and systemic racism.


  4. Taibbi on 1/6

    “A Tale of Two Authoritarians
    The appearance of Dick Cheney in the House of Representatives on the anniversary of January 6th helped identify the true villain on the scene

    Matt Taibbi

    Former Vice President Dick Cheney visited the House of Representatives yesterday. He and his daughter Liz were the only two Republicans present at a moment of silence commemorating the events of last January 6th. It was a touching scene, which perfectly described why the surviving anti-Trump Uniparty of the political mainstream is at least as much of a threat to democracy as the “insurrectionists” they never stop wailing about.

    January 6th was a massive LARP that got out of hand. Trump has been around long enough for us to know his pattern as a serial line-crosser. Like a comedian, he’s always trying out new material, and if he gets the right reaction, he comes back with a bigger delivery next time. January 6th was Trump dipping a toe in the lake of strongman politics. The reason it wasn’t worse is because Trump has also been constantly mislabeled as a Hitler, Stalin, or Pinochet. The man has no attention span, no interest in planning or strategy, and most importantly, no ability to maintain relationships with the type of people who do have those qualities (like Steve Bannon). Even if he wanted to overturn “democracy itself” — I don’t believe he does, but let’s say — Trump has proven over and over he lacks the qualities a politician would need to make that happen.

    Which brings us back to Cheney. All those things Trump is rumored to be, Dick Cheney actually is. That’s why it’s so significant that he appeared on the floor of the House yesterday to be slobbered over by the Adam Schiffs and Nancy Pelosis of the world. Dick Cheney did more to destroy democracy in ten minutes of his Vice Presidency than Donald Trump did in four years.

    Seeing leading Democrats nuzzling the man George W. Bush called “Iron Ass” summed up the essential problem of the ordinary person trying to find a political home in this landscape. Even if you find the Trump phenomenon troubling, his opposition is not only authoritarian, but organized and armed with the intellectual tools to understand and appreciate how the technological elimination of democracy might be achieved in the 21st century.

    We’re living through a period where an unpleasantly likely outcome for the ordinary American is the invocation of emergency powers to eliminate basic rights. From which side is that threat most likely to come?”


  5. What’s interesting though is that to Progressives, Carter is a hero so it’s not surprising that they would try to emulate his administration.


  6. Peak 2022 and it’s only January:


  7. Pretty decent piece in the Washington Post. Went down the rabbit hole on links and found a few other interesting things to read.


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