Morning Report: Brainard and Powell visit Biden

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 4,702 12.2
Oil (WTI) 81.52 0.63
10 year government bond yield   1.48%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   3.17%

Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

 

The upcoming week will be relatively data-light as is typical in the week after the jobs report. We will get inflation data with the Producer Price Index tomorrow and the Consumer Price index on Wednesday.

Jerome Powell will be speaking today and tomorrow at Jackson Hole. Note that the bond market will be closed on Thursday for Veteran’s Day.

 

Fannie and Freddie made $5.3 billion from the adverse market fee. The proceeds from the fee are expected to partially cover the losses Fan and Fred are eating from the foreclosure moratorium. The FHFA anticipates that the moratorium will cost the GSEs between $7 and $8 billion over the next couple of years.

 

Chinese high-yield bondholders have lost about a third on their investment this year as the property developers begin to default on their debt. FYI, the Chinese stock market is flattish on the year. As a general rule, when the bond market and the stock market disagree on the future the bond market usually has it right.

Chinese media claims that Evergrande has made all of its interest payments. It looks like offshore investors have not received a November 6 interest payment.

 

Rocket reported that it originated $88 billion in the third quarter. This was an increase from the second quarter, and roughly flat on a YOY basis. Gain on sale margins rose from 2.8% in the second quarter to 3.05% in the third. I guess they see the market getting more competitive in the fourth quarter. Guidance for gain on sale margins are expected to come in between 2.65% and 2.95%.

 

Jerome Powell and Lael Brainard met with Joe Biden presumably to discuss who will lead the Fed when Powell term expires soon. Brainard is viewed as more dovish than Powell. Whoever gets the nod might end up being the G William Miller of this generation. Miller was nominated by Jimmy Carter to run the Fed in 1978, and lasted a little over a year before getting kicked upstairs to run Treasury.

During this time period, the inflation rate rose from about 6.5% in March of 1978 to almost 12% in August of 1979 when he was replaced. Below is a chart of the last inflation cycle, which pretty much lasted from 1965 to 1980.

19 Responses

  1. Tell me how I can connect with those uneducated, ignorant racist bitches?

    Like

  2. Does anyone trust that the FBI raid on James O’Keefe and Project Veritas was not politically motivated?

    It is certainly a reasonable question, I think, to wonder why the theft of a First Family diary might prompt an FBI investigation and raid, but the illegal disclosure and publication of a First Family tax return wouldn’t.

    https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2021/11/raid_on_project_veritas_journalists_once_again_shows_the_different_standards_in_the_application_of_law.html

    Like

    • I didn’t know it was possible to think it wasn’t politically motivated. Is there anything the FBI, or any Federal alphabet agency has done right in the last, say, 40 years?

      Like

    • The deep state is the enforcement arm for the left.

      Like

      • I have to admit I wouldn’t have thought that 10 years ago, but the last 5 years has red-pilled me.

        Like

        • True. The Trump Admin was an eye-opening experience of how completely ideological every institution is.

          Like

        • FYI Scott:

          “The House select committee investigating the Jan. 6 insurrection issued new subpoenas Monday to a half-dozen members of former President Donald Trump’s inner circle. One of those subpoenaed was Bill Stepien, Trump’s former campaign manager.

          But this subpoena raises some issues for the select committee, especially Rep. Liz Cheney of Wyoming, the Republican vice chair.

          Stepien’s firm, National Public Affairs, is managing the campaign of one of Cheney’s Republican primary challengers, Harriet Hageman. Stepien is one of the founding partners of the firm. Trump endorsed Hageman.

          Which led us to ask Cheney’s office what her role was in issuing the subpoena for Stepien.

          An aide to the select committee gave us this statement: “The full Select Committee doesn’t vote to authorize subpoenas. Subpoena authority rests with the Chairman.”

          The aide added: “The purposes for the subpoenas Chairman Thompson issued today are outlined in respective cover letters: https://t.co/t7gJI6fH4S”

          Now this didn’t fully answer our questions, including what role, if any, did Cheney have in deciding who is subpoenaed, or whether she was told of the Stepien subpoena beforehand.”

          https://email.punchbowl.news/t/ViewEmail/t/5DD2BF535F84701E2540EF23F30FEDED/F0F0D2F064DCB4FC1D419C9787CC9684

          Of course, none of this is reported in the MSM. I recommend subscribing to Punchbowl News. They do real political reporting, without much of a ideological slant. Sort of like Politico was originally.

          If you use my referral link, I may get a free hat:

          https://sparklp.co/54f6c0ad

          Like

        • How long have you subscribed? Is it worth it?

          Like

        • While it doesn’t get reported by the MSM it still gets out in this day and age. I’m prone to think this is not going to help Cheney in the primary.

          Like

        • A few months. Started with the reporting on the debt ceiling negotiations.

          Subscribing is free for the basic version.

          Like

      • The thoroughness of the capture of the institutions by the elite progressive left is kind of mind-boggling.

        If the GOP wasn’t worthless, presumably they would set to work–once back in some form of power–in changing how these institutions are staffed and leaders appointed. Might as well given the executive branch tools for repopulating the agencies with ideological folks folks. When Democrats win they will put all their folks back but the solution is to do nothing and let the elite progressives that have captured the bureaucracies remain an unelected ruling class.

        Like

    • As a side note, these actions just authenticated the diary.

      See also:

      https://jonathanturley.org/2021/11/07/fbi-raids-project-veritas-over-a-missing-biden-diary/

      Like

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