Morning Report: Job creation rebounds

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 4,694 20.2
Oil (WTI) 79.72 0.63
10 year government bond yield   1.52%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   3.25%

Stocks are higher after the payrolls number came in above expectations. Bonds and MBS are up.


The economy added 531,000 jobs in October, according to the BLS. The unemployment rate fell 0.1% to 4.6% and the employment-population ratio increased by 0.1%. The labor force participation rate was flat at 61.6%. Average hourly earnings increased at a 4.9% clip. Interestingly, the average workweek fell by 0.1 hours, so that sort of jives with the drop in productivity we saw yesterday.


The end of mortgage forbearance has increased the number of affordable homes on the market, according to Redfin. “The end of forbearance has forced many lower-income Americans to put their homes up for sale and become renters,” said Redfin Chief Economist Daryl Fairweather. “This has caused the number of affordable homes on the market to surge, helping replenish inventory amid an acute housing shortage. It’s a rain storm after a long drought, but the drought isn’t over yet.”

On the other side of the coin, luxury home sales are beginning to slip after spiking during COVID. Home prices are still up mid-teens.


Zillow’s exit out of iBuying caused competitor Opendoor to rally 19% yesterday. I guess it is one less competitor, but do they really have a better real estate price forecasting model than Zillow?

Analyzing repeat sales and comps is complex, but it isn’t splitting the atom or anything. And market movements (like what happened with Zillow) are impossible to predict. The bottom line is that investing in real estate is a highly leveraged business, and leverage and volatility don’t mix.

42 Responses

  1. They are one upping Tom DeLay

    “5 hours and counting: House Dems leave vote open to twist arms”


    • i was there for that Part D vote. bailed after 4 hours.


      • Looks like it’s falling apart for the House D’s today.


        • everyone was Pelosi is some sort of genius. but i think that’s just throne-sniffing.

          i’ve only sort of been followoing. CMS dumped 4-5 major rules this week, so i’m occupied with that.


        • I was wrong. Enough Republicans voted for the infrastructure bill that it passed. They bailed Biden & Pelosi out.

          Hopefully with that bill done and with it all the leverage that the progressive caucus had gone, they will tank the other bill.


        • I assume the infrastructure bill had enough actual infrastructure in it to justify the votes it got from the GOP–at least in those states.

          I have heard that it’s full of “green energy” stuff that sounds basically like payoffs and fraud, Solyndra-style, but I have not read the bill at all so have no idea. We will see if it helps any. I’m dubious. But I’m sure at least a few bridges that need fixing will get fixed, and that’s a positive in my mind.


  2. Worth a read from Youngkin’s campaign team. Take it with a grain of salt (“talking your book”) but still worthwhile.

    Edit: NoVA, you’ll appreciate this quote:

    “To get 75 percent of the [rural] vote, I mean, those are kind of Saddam Hussein-type of numbers, [2.6s] right? To get that kind of vote, it’s going to require a couple of things. One, you’ve got to do a pretty good job yourself — but that only gets you so far. Terry McAuliffe did not compete for those votes at all. And then, of your $40 million of direct voter contact that you have at your disposal, if you’re Terry McAuliffe, spend half of that accusing us of being too conservative and just like Trump — [and in rural Virginia,] he of course, did very, very well.

    And so it’s really pretty simply explained: [McAuliffe] didn’t show up. He didn’t give them a single reason to vote for him. Literally not a single reason. And he spent the whole entire campaign — half his voter contact money — telling everybody how much we were like Trump and we were really conservative and we were really pro-life, really pro-gun. He kind of ran our state campaign for us. “


    • “First, I think it was a textbook example of the theory that candidate quality matters. We started with a once-in-a-generation talent in Glenn.”

      okay, let’s not go crazy. i get it what you’re doing, but still.


      • Youngkin was definitely not awful. He acquitted himself competently as a politician. That should not make a once-in-a-generation talent–but these days maybe it does. Considering how awful so many politicians are that the fact that they ever win an election seems like an accident.


  3. The left cornered Joe Manchin in a parking garage. How they don’t realize that they turn off people with that is beyond me.


    • They seem to see themselves as being heroic and brave when they do that. I’m not seeing it. And how these don’t equate to mini 1/6s is beyond me. Same theory, done on a more granular level.


  4. This:

    “Igor Danchenko arrested, charged with lying to FBI about information in Steele dossier

    By Devlin Barrett and Tom Jackman
    Today at 9:34 p.m. EDT

    An analyst who was a primary source for a 2016 dossier of allegations against Donald Trump has been arrested on charges that he repeatedly lied to the FBI about where and how he got his information, officials said Thursday.”


    • And they enthusiastically clapped for those autonomous zones in Portland and Seattle during the Summer of 2020.


      • I go back and forth between willful blindness, ignorance or “it’s different when we do it”. I still think it will be anDemocratic governor that will defy SCOTUS on something but it won’t be considered a Constitutional Crisis until a Republican POTUS attempts a remedy.


        • It’s been my experience that pathological narcissists can either be entirely aware of what they are doing and just not care–they don’t have any sense of empathy that or control that restrains their behaviors, and so lie and manipulate as easy as breathing. Then there are pathological narcissists who are entirely unaware of what they are doing. They are completely and utterly blind to it (at least in themselves).


    • When have they not been excited about crushing fellow Americans (well, those that disagree with them, about anything, at all, to any degree)?


  5. Welcome to the the world of mandated semi-annual shots (at a minimum) for the rest of our lives.

    Is this what we desire?


    • Eventually? When the gene therapies they are currently calling “vaccines” can flip various epigenetic switches to control addictions, appetite, turn off cancer cells, stop or reverse aging–sure.

      To prevent even getting COVID 19 zeta variant that literally has no symptoms for anybody and zero fatalities, but because that is the fashion and recommendation of “experts”? No.


  6. That Maddow story is one I should circulate among my liberal friends.


    • Mark:

      That Maddow story is one I should circulate among my liberal friends.

      It isn’t just Maddow. She is the most egregiously obvious, but virtually the entire mainstream media has been completely discredited by its Russia Collusion coverage. Anyone who believed anything the NYT or the WaPo was reporting on it at the time was completely duped.


  7. Is it just me or is it weird that having a new actor play Donald Trump on Saturday Night Live is considered front page news (or should that be rewritten to “home page news” now)?


    • Given both the size and nature of the audience, it’s perfectly predictable. It’s a narrow, homogenous group of people writing for an audience made of up the same narrow, homogenous group of people.

      There is almost nobody outside of that group–except for media critics, and people who enjoy hate-reading the output of the media, which is it’s own homogenous, narrow-band of audience–that cares about the NYTimes and The Atlantic. If that narrow-band of homogenous people didn’t contain so many wealthy/powerful/connected people (and celebrities), these publications would now be the equivalent of mimeographed newsletters.


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