Vital Statistics:
| Last | Change | |
| S&P futures | 3559 | -6.6 |
| Oil (WTI) | 41.73 | 0.31 |
| 10 year government bond yield | 0.86% | |
| 30 year fixed rate mortgage | 2.82% |
Stocks are lower this morning as COVID cases continue to rise. Bonds and MBS are up.
Initial Jobless Claims ticked up to 740,000 last week.
Existing home sales rose 4.3% MOM to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 6.85 million in October. This number is up 27% from a year ago. The median home price came in at 313,000 an increase of 16% from a year ago. This huge jump in prices means that the luxury end of the market is recovering. Housing inventory remains tight at 1 42 million units, which represents a 2.5 month supply at current rates. “Considering that we remain in a period of stubbornly high unemployment relative to pre-pandemic levels, the housing sector has performed remarkably well this year,” said Lawrence Yun, NAR’s chief economist.
The FHFA issued its final capital rule for the GSEs. Fan and Fred will have to hold Tier 1 capital in excess of 4% to avoid restrictions on capital distributions and discretionary bonuses. The government would like to end conservatorship, however I think there is a meaningful risk that a Biden Administration will re-instate the profit sweep to pay for the advance relief that servicers are getting as a part of the CARES Act. The left really has little appetite to privatize the GSEs in the first place, and divided Congress makes anything legislative difficult.
New Home Purchase applications rose 5% MOM and 33% YOY according to the MBA. “New home sales activity was robust in October,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “October is usually when home buying activity slows as the weather turns colder. However, this fall has been a different story, with delayed activity from the spring, and more households seeking larger homes with more indoor and outdoor space, driving demand.”
Global debt is set to hit $277 trillion by the end of the year. That is a quarter of a quadrillion in debt. Despite all of that debt, interest rates are negative in much of the world. Meanwhile, the Fed is committed to lower rates, and has absolutely no intention to reduce the size of its balance sheet. In fact, it may extend its liquidity facilities for corporate and municipal debt into 2021.
Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |
All Things in Moderation 
Interesting read. Eugenics is alive and well.
“The Last Children of Down Syndrome
Prenatal testing is changing who gets born and who doesn’t. This is just the beginning.
Story by Sarah Zhang”
https://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2020/12/the-last-children-of-down-syndrome/616928/
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I was selling NIPT tests in 2015 and my company was late to the game even then. That ship sailed. It’s a pity in that the error rate for some genetic disorders is really high and can only be confirmed by Amnio but a huge chunk of parents just terminate rather than get one.
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This struck me as accurate:
“Wasserman told me he didn’t think that most parents who make these decisions are seeking perfection. Rather, he said, “there’s profound risk aversion.””
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Further, the risk evaluation via NIPT is really complicated and most OB’s don’t understand it, so in they end they also advise termination.
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Thank God, I was worried it would be harder.
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The blacklisting of people working in the Trump administration is actually a positive as it will inhibit establishment person from every working in another Republican admin. Will have to go outside DC.
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This is absolutely unprecedented!!
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So, did a miracle occur or not?
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In her defense no one ever gave a shit about her opinions anyway.
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One good thing about Covid, it’s cured the flu!
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Good piece.
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article/do-masks-stop-the-spread-of-covid-19-
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Then: We’ve got to try this!
https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2016/dec/19/electoral-college-faithless-electors-donald-trump
Now: It would be a coup!
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Lol!
https://notthebee.com/article/just-a-reminder-obama-won-his-very-first-election-by-charging-his-opponents-with-election-fraud
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I laughed.
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Happens to the best of us.
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I am not sure how the left intends to force people to believe the election was legitimate and without fraud.
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Brent:
I am not sure how the left intends to force people to believe the election was legitimate and without fraud.
The same way they always try to convince people of anything….”Shut up, racist*!”
*or nazi
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@brentnyitray: “I am not sure how the left intends to force people to believe the election was legitimate and without fraud.”
I don’t know that it matters. Smart people who should know better, including on the right, are just being remarkably dismissive of the idea of voter fraud or that the idea that it’s a real thing or that there could possibly be anything wrong with how the voting is done in Michigan or Wisconsin or George, or that there could possible be any issue with the Dominion system (which is likely exploitable and open to fraud even if they did the best job they could, and more vulnerable than many other systems specifically because it hasn’t gotten a lot of hostile focus).
I don’t get the sense that Jonah Goldberg or John Podohertz or Rob Long (to start with one podcast) believes that there was fraud or irregularities but are trying to hide it–to them, it’s just Trump saying it, so it’s stupid, and obviously “people” have said the election was perfectly secure so, forget about it.
So there’s just going to be another split between people who just know there was no fraud or irregularities, or those people who are sure there was fraud.
Which–how different will that be for Biden/Harris than it was for Trump? For four years, for around 40% of the population, Trump and Putin stole the election from HRC. For Trump supporters and others who just thought the idea was idiotic, they knew it didn’t happen.
So for the next 4 years, about 40% of the population will be sure that Biden stole the election. We may move to a point where 40% of the population thinks the election was stolen every time.
We will see, I guess!
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TDS won’t end with Trump’s defeat
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and they think Trump is the authoritarian.
the left has zero self-awareness, and an unmeasurable amount of solipsism.
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Taibbi is adding more types of content:
https://taibbi.substack.com/p/note-to-readers-announcing-new-features
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Interesting read:
https://newrepublic.com/article/160285/obama-promised-land-trump-biden
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So the conclusion seems to be that (a) the problem is the right wing and (b) the other problem is that too many on the left want to be concilliatory to the right or work within the right’s framework.
Which seems to be a fairly consistent conclusion on the left, but also on the right (which just reverses the players).
And perhaps only a bloody civil war (or equivalent) will finally take care of the problematic reactionaries on the opposite side.
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