Morning Report: No decision yet

Vital Statistics:

 

  Last Change
S&P futures 3414 50.6
Oil (WTI) 38.61 1.01
10 year government bond yield   0.77%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.87%

Stocks are higher as the election votes come in. Bonds are up after a wild night.

 

As I type this, the count in Michigan has narrowly gone to Biden, after leaning Trump all night. The remaining undecided states are MI, WI, PA, GA, NV, and NC. MI, WI, and NV are leaning Biden, and PA, GA and NC are leaning Trump. If those final results hold up, Biden wins.

The Senate so far is looking unchanged, although it hasn’t been declared either way. Same with the house. The only takeaway is there was no blue wave that the media had been trying to create for months. If the Senate stays Republican, we will have divided government no matter who wins, and that is good for both stocks and bonds. A huge stimulus bill with a bailout for the big broke blue states probably isn’t in the cards.

One thing to keep in mind, is that with all the expected recounts, we probably won’t have a definitive answer on the election for possibly weeks.

 

If Biden wins, the most likely change will a more aggressive regulatory state. My suspicion is that nothing changes with Fan and Fred, and the common stock for the GSEs will remain a litigation lottery ticket. I don’t think anything changes with the Fed.

 

Mortgage Applications increased 3.8% last week as purchases decreased 1% and refis increased 6%. The average rate ticked up a basis point to 3.01%.

 

The economy added 365,000 jobs in October, according to the ADP Jobs report. The Street was looking for around 750,000, so this is a miss. Economists are forecasting an increase of 530,000 jobs in Friday’s jobs report. “The labor market continues to add jobs, yet at a slower pace,” Ahu Yildirmaz, vice president and co-head of the ADP Research Institute, said in a statement. “Although the pace is slower, we’ve seen employment gains across all industries and sizes.”

 

 

51 Responses

  1. I’m trying to decide if the PL meltdown is worse than in 2016.

    Liked by 1 person

    • what could they possibly be complaining about? the overnight surprise ballot dumps are giving it to biden.

      Liked by 1 person

      • not a blue wave.
        Senate didn’t flip

        they wanted a reagan-style beat down.

        Liked by 2 people

        • The results also indicate to me that absent COVID, Trump would have been reelected.

          Like

        • pretty much.
          granted, if he pushed for lockdowns, etc. the PL would have been screaming that he was a fascist. but just in a different way.

          he deserved to lose.
          i’m 50/50 on if the Ds deserve to win.

          Liked by 1 person

        • i just read waldman. i see what you mean.

          divided government. i’ll take it

          Liked by 1 person

        • the hilarious thing is that about 8am or so this morning, they thought it was all over and trump was going to win.

          what # are you looking at? Biden clearly has the advantage.

          Liked by 1 person

        • I wonder if Trump can BS his way to a victory at this point.

          But I’m with you NoVA. Biden winning the presidency but the Republicans keeping the Senate is an acceptable outcome.

          Of course, they first thing he’ll do is go after guns, just to alienate anyone who might have been persuadable.

          Liked by 1 person

        • Gideon just conceded. so it’s very tough for them to flip it now.

          Like

  2. If divided government [JB and Mitch] is the result, I think it is the one the WSJ editorial board wanted, IIRC.

    Liked by 1 person

    • But it had immediate negative effects for many minority residents in the state, particularly in education and business.

      I have read that African-American graduation rates and GPAs went up and stayed up after prop 209.

      The “negative results” cited could be incomplete, and I think it might be. Could be high-GPA, graduating minorities are getting the hell out of California. Those not in that category are staying.

      This whole “pro-discrimination” argument for justice leaves me cold, though. So I may be biased.

      This will be a win, IMO, if California elects someone very different to the governorship in the future. But I don’t hold out much hope. Fortunately, I don’t live in California.

      Like

  3. This is a perfect encapsulation of the progressive reaction:

    “A mix of “what the **** just happened” and “don’t blame me.””

    Like

  4. This is awesome:

    Like

  5. Interesting contrarian take:

    “Did COVID End Up Helping Trump?
    Shannon Palus”

    https://slate.com/technology/2020/11/did-covid-help-trump.html

    Like

  6. too funny.
    and JFC with the poor us, we’re going to win the WH!

    Liked by 1 person

  7. No comment on most of your posts but I will say here that I threw some money at Biden/Harris (primarily against Trump), but also threw some money to Jaime Harrison and I’m super disappointed he couldn’t boot Lindsay Graham out of the Senate……….That was the race I was most interested in……….so you can all tell me I lost…………LOL

    Tonight it looks like Biden has an easy win but I’m hoping Georgia and maybe PA go his way to make it a bit of a referendum against Trump.

    Scott, I’ll take that bet

    Like

    • lms:

      Scott, I’ll take that bet

      Ok. We can either do a straight up bet for, say, $50 that Biden will not be president on Election Day 2024, or we can do an over/under bet in which one of us pays the other $1 for every month before or after a certain date that Biden is not or remains President. For the latter bet, I would make the date 3 years from the date of his certification as President-elect, which I think is Dec 14. So, for example, if Biden keeled over on Inauguration Day, you would owe me 36-1=$35, For every month he stayed in office after Inauguration Day, you would owe me $1 less until Dec 2023, at which point I would start owing you. The max you could lose would be $36, and the max you could win would be $13.

      Like

      • Hmmmmm, I don’t like the numbers on the over-under so I’ll take the straight up bet of $50 on Election Day 2024. I’ll turn over the domain cost to you after we know who actually wins the presidency. You can use the $50 to reimburse yourself for the 4 years you’ll be paying for it…………How does that sound?

        Like

    • lms:

      I’m super disappointed he couldn’t boot Lindsay Graham out of the Senate

      What do you have against LG?

      Like

      • I think there are men and women in the Senate and the House who have served their purpose and become so entrenched in the chamber that they’ve forgotten the people they represent. I include Diane Feinstein, Chuch Schumer, Nancy Pelosi, Mitch
        McConnel and several others in this group.

        I probably sound like an ageist but if you remember I wasn’t happy about the ages of some people running for President either. I think as someone who is 70 myself, that it’s time to turn things over to a younger crowd who will better represent and protect the future of my grandchildren.

        Like

        • lms:

          I think as someone who is 70 myself, that it’s time to turn things over to a younger crowd who will better represent and protect the future of my grandchildren.

          Sure, but unless any of those grandchildren live in South Carolina, LG isn’t supposed to represent them.

          Like

        • I think that’s true of pretty much everybody in the house and senate. And will continue to be. The Squad went in there to be national figures, not work for their districts. It’s the nature of the congress now.

          Like

    • I didn’t think there was any change of unseating Lindsay Graham. He may never be president or VP but his similarities to Frank Underwood in House oc Cards probably aren’t coincidental.

      Also, actual pollsters who poll for data rather than narrative always had Graham well ahead.

      One thing is definitely true: Biden does not have an easy win. If he did legitimately win AZ, MI, PA and NV . . . the election commisions in these states are leaving themselves wide open to recount and court challenges for some reason. So: easy win? No. Likely win? Yes.

      SO I CALLED IT WRONG AGAIN.

      I called Hillary in 2016. WRONG. I called Trump in 2020. WRONG AGAIN.

      I’m batting a thousand!

      Like

  8. I have to say that Trump should demand the Biden % of the mail-in votes in these battleground states.

    If the percentages are way different than the in-day voting percentages, you can measure how big of a sigma event that is. If we see a 3-sigma difference in battleground states, and no differences in other states, it would be almost overwhelming evidence of voter fraud.

    That should trigger a manual audit to determine which votes are real and which ones are false. IMHO to move the needle that much overnight, the percentages would have to have been sizeable.

    To put it in perspective, if we were talking about auto loans, and your company is the mail-in ballot percentage, and Biden was white applicants and Trump was Black applicants the government would have an airtight case against you under disparate impact theory.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I think the votes that have been counted, and will be counted, are all real votes. As far as I know every Sec of State in the battleground states have worked very hard to verify the votes. They have observers of both parties and even video of the process.

      If Trump loses, it will be fair and square but he can be the anti-Amreican he always is and try to stop or suppress the vote if he wants.

      Like

      • We’ll see. I will reserve judgement until i see the numbers.

        Like

      • lms:

        As far as I know every Sec of State in the battleground states have worked very hard to verify the votes.

        But how/why would you know?

        Like

        • I’ve read and seen news reports from many of the big cities and voting districts that have observers from both parties in the room as well as cameras and also heard from Sec’s of State from both R & D states discussing the process.

          I know it varies greatly from state to state but I don’t expect to see anything but minor mistakes and I don’t think, if there is fraud, it will be at the counting level of voting.

          I think it’s still a toss up to be honest and calls to stop the count will not be heard.

          If you can prove me wrong go for it though.

          Like

        • lms:

          I’ve read and seen news reports…

          From what sources? The same one’s that, for example, spent 4 years pushing the Russia Collusion Hoax?

          If you can prove me wrong go for it though.
          What would you accept as proof? For example, if I could demonstrate that a mail-in ballot had been cast in the name of person who died 35 years ago, would that constitute proof that voter fraud has occurred?

          Like

        • I am saying if the percentages are way off, it means the ballots were no good to begin with.

          But I have confidence that Democrats are capable of competently counting bogus ballots

          Like

        • Also, working in a small government bureaucracy myself, I will tell you that “working very hard to verify” doesn’t really mean all that much. They will typically be highly dependent on what people one or two or three steps below are doing and reporting, and there are dozens of places in the chain where confusion can result in profound–if honest–errors that remain entirely undetected for far, far too long.

          Seen it happen. Again and again.

          Like

      • I think the votes that have been counted, and will be counted, are all real votes.

        I don’t. In fact I know that’s not the case. People’s Pundit has covered examples–using publicly available information–that prove, with the actual data, that mail-in ballots for people who have been dead for 40 years have been processed and counted. So they definitely aren’t ALL real votes. Unless I’m mistaken about what being dead means.

        100k votes, all for Biden, showing up in MI and WI looks very suspicious. I would be equally suspicious if they were all for Trump. That’s typically not how actual voting works.

        The calling a lid on vote counting in a hotly contested election is just weird. Really weird. States with fewer votes left to count than a single Florida district need an extra three days while Florida was basicaly done in a day? That smells very rank, to me.

        In any case, what these folks are doing–IMO–leave them all open to recount demands and court challenges. So if the goal was to give Biden legitimacy and a clear path to victory, they did it all wrong.

        Like

    • Okay Brent, you’re the mathematician so let me know what you discover.

      Liked by 1 person

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