Morning Report: GDP rebounds

Posted on October 29, 2020 by Brent Nyitray

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 3269 6.6
Oil (WTI) 35.25 -2.29
10 year government bond yield   0.77%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.90%

Stocks are flattish this morning after yesterday’s bloodbath. Bonds and MBS are flat as well.

COVID cases are surging in Europe, prompting many governments to institute strict social distancing measures.

Third quarter GDP rose 33%, while personal consumption rose 41%. These numbers were higher than expectations. Personal incomes fell by $540 billion after increasing $1.45 trillion in the second quarter, which was supported by government stimulus payments. Overall, the economy is improving, but it is still way below pre-COVID levels.

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 751k last week.

Corelogic reported that mortgage fraud risk fell by 26.3% YOY in the second quarter. This decrease was largely driven by a shift in the purchase / refi mix. Note that these are second quarter numbers, so they are a bit old.

Freddie Mac reported that the seriously delinquent rate fell by 13 basis points to 3.04% in September.

I will be a panelist at the IMN Mortgage Servicing Rights forum this morning at 10:45 this morning. It should be a good conference.

Filed under: Economy, Morning Report |

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32 Responses

  1. jnc4p, on October 29, 2020 at 12:04 pm said:

    Wickard v Filburn, the gift that keeps on giving:

    Liked by 1 person

    Reply
  3. ScottC, on October 29, 2020 at 12:19 pm said:

    Amusing flashback…Chris Cilliza on CNN 2 years ago:

    Where does that leave us? Almost nowhere. Except that you have to know this about The New York Times: They aren’t publishing an anonymous op-ed from just anyone in the Trump administration. They especially aren’t publishing one that alleges a near-coup within the federal government among people concerned the President is not only hopelessly out of his depth but also clueless about how hopelessly out of his depth he actually is.

    In short: If some midlevel bureaucrat in the Trump administration comes to the Times — or has an intermediary reach out to the Times — asking to write a piece like this one without their name attached to it, the answer would be an immediate “no.” Contrary to what Trump says on his Twitter feed, media organizations are very wary of giving anyone and everyone anonymity to make attacks.

    Trusting in the good faith, ethics and journalistic standards of the NYT is like believing in Santa Claus. I’m guessing Cilliza isn’t even close to feeling as embarrassed as he should be.

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  4. novahockey, on October 29, 2020 at 12:55 pm said:

    have you all seen this:

    Liked by 1 person

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  5. jnc4p, on October 29, 2020 at 1:05 pm said:

    Worth a read:

    “My Resignation From The Intercept

    The same trends of repression, censorship and ideological homogeneity plaguing the national press generally have engulfed the media outlet I co-founded, culminating in censorship of my own articles.

    Glenn Greenwald

    Today I sent my intention to resign from The Intercept, the news outlet I co-founded in 2013 with Jeremy Scahill and Laura Poitras, as well as from its parent company First Look Media.

    The final, precipitating cause is that The Intercept’s editors, in violation of my contractual right of editorial freedom, censored an article I wrote this week, refusing to publish it unless I remove all sections critical of Democratic presidential candidate Joe Biden, the candidate vehemently supported by all New-York-based Intercept editors involved in this effort at suppression.

    The censored article, based on recently revealed emails and witness testimony, raised critical questions about Biden’s conduct. Not content to simply prevent publication of this article at the media outlet I co-founded, these Intercept editors also demanded that I refrain from exercising a separate contractual right to publish this article with any other publication.

    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/my-resignation-from-the-intercept

    Liked by 1 person

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    • Let the mutherfuker burn!, on October 29, 2020 at 1:51 pm said:

      Not a fan of Greewald but I don’t know if I’d have the fortitude to leave a paying job on principal.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
    • novahockey, on October 29, 2020 at 2:14 pm said:

      that they would circle the wagon around Joe Biden of all people is the saddest part of all this.

      Liked by 1 person

      Reply
      • jnc4p, on October 29, 2020 at 2:34 pm said:

        It’s always been about Trump in the end.

        What’s really absurd is the rationalizations like this:

        “It was not Biden that the Washington press corps needed to hold accountable. Biden simply was not the story.

        But all that changes if and when he becomes the president-elect.

        The second he is declared victor – or, given how long that could take, perhaps even once all the votes are cast – political journalists should be holding him to the highest possible standards of transparency, logic, and clarity.

        They should be demanding detailed statements about policy and personnel so we can hold him accountable going forward.”

        https://presswatchers.org/2020/10/if-biden-wins-political-journalists-have-a-lot-of-catching-up-to-do/

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        • Kevin S. Willis, on October 29, 2020 at 2:57 pm said:

          Not clear why it changes when he becomes president-elect, or that it will (because then come mid-terms–you don’t want bad news about Biden impacting mid-term turn out!). Or why the press should intentionally not pursue stories or cover relevant information or ask hard questions in order to impact who becomes president. Why is that their job, exactly? Why do they think they have that obligation/right?

          Like

        • jnc4p, on October 29, 2020 at 3:05 pm said:

          Because Orange Man Bad and they are part of The Resistance now.

          Liked by 1 person

        • Brent Nyitray, on October 29, 2020 at 4:44 pm said:

          Biden won’t get break once elected because the media will want to take him out for harris

          Like

      • Kevin S. Willis, on October 29, 2020 at 3:14 pm said:

        The saddest part (whether they are right or wrong) is that they think they can do it and nobody will notice or care . . . also that they think this in their job, not reporting or otherwise producing things people might want to read.

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        • Brent Nyitray, on October 29, 2020 at 4:07 pm said:

          The thing they do not grasp is that credibility is not something that can be debated. Even if you are able to parry all of my points about bias, it doesn’t mean i am going to be buying what you’re selling. It isn’t a debate club.

          Like

    • Kevin S. Willis, on October 29, 2020 at 3:05 pm said:

      Greenwald has balls made of iron and the size of coconuts. Good on him. Whatever he does next, I will make sure that I read.

      The Intercept was pretty good at the outset. Too bad that’s collapsed.

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  6. jnc4p, on October 29, 2020 at 3:14 pm said:

    And Greenwald’s article about the Hunter Biden E-mails is up:

    https://greenwald.substack.com/p/article-on-joe-and-hunter-biden-censored

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    • ScottC, on October 29, 2020 at 4:15 pm said:

      jnc:

      And Greenwald’s article about the Hunter Biden E-mails is up:

      Greenwald mentions Taibbi, which reminds me of something I have been meaning to tell you for a while now. I have to admit that all those years ago, I was wrong about Taibbi, and you were right. I’ve haven’t changed my mind about my old criticisms of his articles, but I”ve concluded that the problem was not deliberate deception or a lack of concern for truth. I think Taibbi has been perhaps the single best commentator on the American media since Trump got elected, and I have a newfound respect for him because of it. So thanks for introducing him to me.

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      • jnc4p, on October 29, 2020 at 6:22 pm said:

        Thanks. Taibbi is certainly biased and comes at things with a point of view but I don’t think he’s dishonest.

        Also being older and not at Rolling Stone as much has changed his tone somewhat.

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      • jnc4p, on October 30, 2020 at 11:18 am said:

        For you Scott:

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  7. jnc4p, on October 29, 2020 at 7:52 pm said:

    And Taibbi’s own piece on the current events.

    https://taibbi.substack.com/p/glenn-greenwald-on-his-resignation

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