Morning Report: Trump back at the White House

Vital Statistics:

  Last Change
S&P futures 3401 6.6
Oil (WTI) 40.55 1.39
10 year government bond yield   0.77%
30 year fixed rate mortgage   2.88%

Stocks are higher as we await a speech by Fed Chairman Jerome Powell. Bonds and MBS are down.

Trump is back at the White House and the Presidential COVID-19 scare appears to be over.

There were 6.5 million job openings at the end of August, according to the JOLTs report. Job openings fell 685,000 YOY, which represents the effect of COVID. The quits level was 2%.

After a COVID-related slumber, it looks like non-QM lending is coming back, at least for self-employed borrowers. “It’s not back to full volume, but it’s close,” says Mac Cregger, senior vice president and regional manager at Angel Oak, according to the report.

Mortgage delinquencies are expected to remain above pre-COVID levels through 2022, according to a recent report by Black Knight. The report compares the COVID experience to natural disasters, and looks at delinquency rates as the area rebuilds. Fears of another 2008-style delinquency spike are overblown; homeowners have $125k in tappable equity on average. “American homeowners now have the most equity available to them in history. Of those in forbearance, just 9% have less than 10% equity in their homes, which offers both borrowers and lenders multiple options in lieu of foreclosure,” said Ben Graboske, data and analytics president at Black Knight.

12 Responses

  1. https://reason.com/2020/10/04/the-case-against-trump-donald-trump-is-an-enemy-of-freedom/

    An issue by issue take down from a libertarian view, it couples well with Reason’s support for the L nominee. I recommend it to you.

    The author’s capsule of his viewpoint:

    On the broad federal issues I care about most – limiting the size and scope of government, protecting individual liberties, allowing for peaceable exchange between willing partners, and contributing to international peace and human flourishing — Trump has been not just passively suboptimal but actively malign. Rewarding his record will cement bad policy and complete the Republican Party’s transformation into a vehicle for big-government nationalism that’s openly suspicious of free markets and perceived enemies.

    Like

    • Mark:

      An issue by issue take down from a libertarian view, it couples well with Reason’s support for the L nominee.

      And if the election were a choice between Trump and the L nominee, it would make sense. Alas, it isn’t. The question is not whether or not Trump is bad, which he is, although not necessarily in all the ways detailed by Reason. The question is whether or not Trump is worse than the other option in the contest. Which isn’t the L nominee.

      Like

    • Like

  2. How soon-to-be-President Kamala Harris exercises her power:

    But Trump is the real threat to the Constitution, right?

    Like

  3. Like

  4. Seems like the term “Russian collusion” should be applied to an entirely different, and in fact real, conspiracy.

    Newly declassified handwritten notes from former CIA Director John Brennan show that the U.S. intelligence community knew in 2016 that Russian intelligence was actively monitoring, and potentially injecting disinformation into, Clinton’s anti-Trump collusion narrative. The intelligence concerning Russia’s knowledge of Clinton’s campaign plans was so concerning to Brennan and other national security officials that they personally informed Obama of the matter in the Oval Office in the summer of 2016. The handwritten notes from Brennan were declassified by Director of National Intelligence (DNI) John Ratcliffe and provided to Congress on Tuesday afternoon.

    According to the declassified notes, Brennan and the U.S. intelligence community knew months prior to the 2016 election that the collusion smear was the result of a campaign operation hatched by the campaign of Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton.

    “We’re getting additional insight into Russian activites from [REDACTED],” Brennan’s handwritten notes state. “Cite alleged approval by Hillary Clinton–on 26 July–of a proposal from one of her foreign policy advisers to villify [sic] Donald Trump by stirring up a scandal claiming interference by the Russian security services.”

    https://thefederalist.com/2020/10/06/breaking-dni-declassifies-handwritten-notes-from-john-brennan-2016-cia-referral-on-clinton-campaigns-collusion-operation/

    Like

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