Morning Report: Profitability jumps for independent mortgage banks

Vital Statistics:


Last Change
S&P futures 3546 20.6
Oil (WTI) 42.84 0.17
10 year government bond yield 0.68%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 2.93%


Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.


Mortgage Applications fell by 2% last week as purchases were flat and refis fell by 3%. “Both conventional and government refinancing activity decreased last week, despite 30-year fixed and 15-year fixed mortgage rates declining to near historical lows,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Mortgage rates have remained below 3.5 percent for five months now, and it’s possible that refinance demand may be slowing and will not significantly increase again without another notable drop in rates.” Are we seeing prepayment burnout? Or was the 50 basis point adverse market fee adding some noise? I suspect it was the latter.


Independent mortgage banks made a profit of $4,548 on each loan in the second quarter, up from $1,600 in the first quarter. Average volume for the quarter was $1 billion. 96% of firms were profitable. Total production revenue increased to 429 basis points from 362 bp in the first quarter.


ADP reported 428,000 new jobs in August. The Street was looking for 900k. The consensus for Friday’s jobs report is 1.4 million.


Rental prices are collapsing in New York City and San Francisco. “Since [COVID-19] really started to affect the U.S. market in March, it has dramatically decreased the amount of people commuting to work every day—either because of social distancing measures or layoffs resulting from COVID-19’s effect on the economy. Given this, there is less of a reason for Americans to cluster in urban centers,” says Zumper analyst Neil Gerstein. “We believe this has caused a migration shift, and a subsequent demand shift, to historically cheaper cities.”



7 Responses

  1. This is a good one:

    The NBA’s ratings are in an inexplicable free fall after a brief player-led boycott last week.

    That’s like saying that a man was inexplicably injured after jumping off a cliff.


    • the media lives in such a bubble


    • When you go hard, hard political–you need to be prepared to lose half your audience. If the boycott (short as it was) happened in a vacuum, I don’t think it would matter. But the NBA has become a pro-CCP, anti-American organization and this has been going on for years and . . . stuff reaches a tipping point. Each time they pull some new stunt, a percentage of the audience walks away. When you become less about your products and more about things that aren’t your product, and alienate paying customers, you’re going to lose market share.


  2. This reminds me a lot of the reporting about the Clinton campaign disregarding Bill Clinton’s advice in the closing days of the campaign:

    “Throughout the campaign, Biden aides have grown accustomed to — and wary of — Democrats who question every move and worry at every tightening poll, a group derisively referred to as “bed-wetters” by less anxious Democrats. Biden’s campaign aides referred to actions taken to satisfy them as “Operation Rubber Sheets.””


  3. And the crazy continues:

    “University of California Can No Longer Use ACT, SAT Scores in Admissions Process, Judge Rules

    By Brittany Bernstein
    September 2, 2020 3:44 PM”


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