Morning Report: New Home Sales rise

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3099 -19.1
Oil (WTI) 39.94 -0.49
10 year government bond yield 0.71%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.16%

 

Stocks are lower this morning as COVID cases increase. Bonds and MBS are up small.

 

Mortgage Applications decreased 8.7% last week as purchases decreased 3% and refis fell 12%. “Refinance applications dropped to their lowest level in three weeks, but the index remained 76 percent higher than a year ago,” said Joel Kan, MBA Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting. “Despite the decline last week, MBA still anticipates refinance originations to increase to $1.35 trillion in 2020 – the highest level since 2012.” There has chatter in the market that originators are backing off on their pricing as they are inundated with files.

 

New Home sales increased 13% compared to a year ago to 676,000. This is up 17% on a month-over-month basis. From what we have been hearing from the homebuilders, demand is robust. Note that KB Home reports after the close today. Note that the builders are not cutting prices either.

 

Home prices rose 0.2% MOM in April, and are up 5.5% YOY, according to the FHFA House Price Index. “U.S. house prices posted another positive monthly increase in April,” according to Dr. Lynn Fisher, Deputy Director of the Division of Research and Statistics at FHFA. “Regionally, results varied. Two of the usually stronger growth areas, the Mountain and Pacific divisions, were flat over the month but other divisions continued to experience strong price appreciation even with all of the COVID-19 challenges. Both the New England and South Atlantic regions saw monthly decreases in prices, but all divisions posted positive year over year growth of at least 5 percent. The number of
transactions used to estimate the HPI were slightly down from March to April but were still a robust sample. We expect the normal spring bump in sales was pushed off by the COVID-19 shutdowns and may extend into the summer months as states reopen and real estate sales pick back up.”

 

The National Multifamily Housing Council reported that 92.2% of tenants paid their June rent as of 6/20. “With the support of expanded unemployment benefits, stimulus funds and significant efforts by apartment community owners and operators to help residents impacted by the outbreak of COVID-19 and resulting financial hardships, it seem most renters were once again able to meet their obligations,” said Doug Bibby, NMHC President. “The early steps taken by lawmakers have proven critical to keeping many safely and securely housed. As we move forward and the economy begins to recover, it will be vitally important that lawmakers continue to support the nation’s renters and forestall even greater economic harm.”

 

 

13 Responses

  1. I should have held firm with my original prediction.

    Appeals Court orders Sullivan to dismiss charges against Flynn, 2-1.

    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/06/24/us-appeals-court-orders-judge-to-dismiss-case-against-michael-flynn.html

    Liked by 1 person

  2. I love Thomas Sowell. Been watching some YouTubes and wanted to share that. That is all.

    In a related note, I miss William F. Buckley and Firing Line (although with Firing Line was actually on the air, I found it boring and pointless, but I was also very young).

    Like

  3. Headline:

    “Black Lives Matter protests have not led to a spike in coronavirus cases, research says

    By Leah Asmelash, CNN
    Updated 4:10 AM ET, Wed June 24, 202”

    Actual story:

    “In fact, researchers determined that social distancing behaviors actually went up after the protests — as people tried to avoid the protests altogether. But obviously, these demonstrations caused a decrease in social distancing among actual protesters.

    “Our findings suggest that any direct decrease in social distancing among the subset of the population participating in the protests is more than offset by increasing social distancing behavior among others who may choose to shelter-at-home and circumvent public places while the protests are underway,” the report reads.

    It’s still possible that protests may have caused an increase in the spread of the virus among those who attended protests, according to the report.”

    https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/24/us/coronavirus-cases-protests-black-lives-matter-trnd/index.html

    Like

    • Fascinating. What is the point of talking about data when you don’t know when some objective data will get you called out as a racist. Or when someone else coverage will lead to you being charged with harassment.

      The anti-free/speech stuff has gotten bizarre.

      Like

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