Dear Diary 2020 Edition (from a younger person)

In January, Australia caught on fire. I don’t even know if that fire was put out, because we straight up almost went to war with Iran. We might actually still be almost at war with them. I don’t know, because Jen Aniston and Brad Pitt spoke to one another at an awards show and everyone flipped the fuck out, but then Netflix released Cheer and everyone fell in love with Jerry, but then there was a thing happening in China, then Prince Harry and Megan peaced out of the Royal family, and there was the whole impeachment trial, and then corona virus showed up in the US “officially,” but then Kobe died and UK peaced out of the European Union
In February, Iowa crapped itself with the caucus results and the president was acquitted and the Speaker of the House took ten years to rip up a speech, but then WHO decided to give this virus a name COVID-19, which confused some really important people in charge of, like, our lives, into thinking there were 18 other versions before it, but then Harvey Weinstein was found guilty, and Americans started asking if Corona beer was safe to drink, and everyone on Facebook became a doctor who just knew the flu like killed way more people than COVID 1 through 18.
In March, shit hit the fan. Warren dropped out of the presidential race and Sanders was like Bernie or bust, but then Italy shut its whole ass down, and then COVID Not 1 through 18 officially become what everyone already realized, a pandemic and then a nationwide state of emergency was declared in US, but it didn’t really change anything, so everyone was confused or thought it was still just a flu, but then COVID Not 18 was like ya’ll not taking me seriously? I’m gonna infect the one celebrity everyone loves and totally infected Tom Hanks, but then the DOW took a shit on itself, and most of us still don’t understand why the stock market is so important or even a thing(I still don’t), but then we were all introduced to Tiger King. (Carol totally killed her husband), and Netflix was like you’re welcome, and we all realized there was no way we were washing our hands enough in the first place because all of our hands are now dry and gross.
In April, Bernie finally busted himself out of the presidential race, but then NYC became the set of The Walking Dead and we learn that no one has face masks, ventilators, or toilet paper, or THE GOD DAMN SWIFTER WET JET LIQUID, but then Kim Jong-Un died, but then he came back to life… or did he? Who knows, because then the Pentagon released videos of UFOs, and we were like man, it’s only April….
In May, the biblical end times kicked off historical locust swarms and then we learned of murder hornets and realized that 2020 was the start of the Hunger Games but people forgot to let us know, but then people legit protested lockdown measures with AR-15s, and then sports events were cancelled everywhere, But then people all over America finally reached a breaking point with race issues and violence. There were protests in every city, but then people totes forgot about the pandemic called COVID Not One Through 18. Media struggled with how to focus on two important things at once, but then people in general struggle to focus on more than one important thing, and a dead whale was found in the middle of the Amazon rain forest after monkeys stole COVID 1 Through 19 from a lab and ran off with them, and either in May or April (no one is keeping track of time now) a giant asteroid narrowly missed earth.
In June, science and common sense just got thrown straight out the window and somehow wearing masks became a political thing, but then a whole lot of people realized the South was actually the most unpatriotic thing ever and actually lost the civil war, and there is a large amount of people who feel that statues they don’t even know the name of are needed for … history reasons, but then everyone sort of remembered there was a pandemic, but then decided that not wearing a mask was somehow a god given right (still haven’t found that part in the bible or even in the constitution), but then scientists announced they found a mysterious undiscovered mass at the center of the earth, and everyone was like DON’T YOU DARE TOUCH IT, but then everyone took a pause to realize that people actually believed Gone With The Wind was like non-fiction, but then it was also announced that there is a strange radio signal coming from somewhere in the universe that repeats itself every so many days, and everyone was like DON’T YOU DARE ATTEMPT TO COMMUNICATE WITH. IT, but then America reopened from the shut down that actually wasn’t even a shut down, and so far, things have gone spectacularly not that great, but everyone is on Facebook arguing that masks kill because no one knows how breathing works, but then Florida was like hold my beer and let me show you how we’re number one in all things, including new Not Corona Beer Corona Virus, Trump decides now is a good time to ask the Supreme Court to shut down Obama Care because what better time to do so than in the middle of a pandemic, but then we learned there was a massive dust cloud coming straight at us from the Sahara Desert, which is totally normal, but this is 2020, so the ghost mummy thing is most likely in that dust cloud, but then I learned of meth-gators, and I’m like that is so not on my fucking 2020 Bingo card, but then we learned that the Congo’s worse ever Ebola outbreak is over, and we were all like, there was an Ebola outbreak that was the worse ever?
In July…. Aliens? Zeus? Asteroids? Artificial Intelligence becomes self aware?

How has the US/Commie Bastards relationship been more beneficial to the Commie Bastards under Trump?

 

H/T TO GEORGE.

For the most part I think it has not been.

BHO did not take Russia seriously until 2014 [Crimea].  But after DJT was elected, at least in 2017-18, his Admin continued to take Russia seriously and I can list stuff it did:

Authorized lethal military aid to Ukraine.

Shuttered two Russian consulates, multiple diplomatic annexes, and expelled 60 diplomats – Seattle and SF.

Sanctioned Russian oligarchs and officials. 40 or so of them.

Expanded the Magnitsky sanctions list. This I had forgotten.  Had to look it up because I thought he did the opposite.

Made RT and Sputnik register as foreign agents.

I think there were additional sanctions of Russki businesses who aided NK and Iran.

Publicly blamed Russia for a cyberattack on the Ukraine, not a biggie, but I am being fair.

On the other hand, he publicly treats Putin with deference [I don’t need examples here, do I?] and has denied the findings of our own national security establishment regarding Russian meddling in our election process.  Personally, I think the Admin responses have become more erratic since his first group of professional advisors chosen from the military have been replaced by political appointees.

I get that he wants out of AFG.  I get that he wants out of the ME.  These are not stupid goals.  I don’t get screwing around insulting NATO and pulling troops out of Germany.  I do think that invites more bullying in eastern Europe from Russia.

Morning Report: The CFPB can stay, but the structure must change.

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 3037 -13.1
Oil (WTI) 39.04 -0.69
10 year government bond yield 0.63%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.16%

 

Stocks are lower on COVID fears. Bonds and MBS are up small.

 

Many states are slowing or reversing re-opening plans.

 

The Supreme Court ruled that the CFPB is permitted to stay, but the Director can be fired at will. This was a Solomon-esqe decision that split the difference between people who wanted the entire bureau eliminated and those that wanted the bureau to to run on autopilot.

 

Jerome Powell and Steve Mnuchin will appear before the House Financial Services Committee this afternoon. There will probably not be anything market moving however just be aware.

 

Home prices rose 0.3% MOM and 4% YOY according to the Case-Shiller index. These are April numbers. The South and West were the hot spots, while the Northeast was weak.

 

Ginnie Mae put out a APM which deals with re-securitizing re-performing Ginnie loans. These loans are ineligible for traditional Ginnie pools and will have to go into new custom pools which will presumably trade far back of normal GII pools. In a nutshell, this will impact FHA and VA pricing for the worse.

 

Democrats are preparing a nationwide eviction moratorium. Meanwhile, FHFA is working on continuing forbearance for multifamily borrowers who suspend evictions. Obviously, nothing here is going to be good for investment properties, so expect pricing to soften here (or programs get pulled back).