Morning Report: Forbearances down

Vital Statistics:


Last Change
S&P futures 3137 24.1
Oil (WTI) 40.14 1.39
10 year government bond yield 0.73%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.16%


Stocks are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat.


Slow news day.


Many banks are closing early today, however it looks like the stock market and the bond market are open for a full session.


No economic news today, but we do have a lot of Fed-speak.


4.6 million homeowners are in forbearance, according to Black Knight. This works out to be 8.7% of homeowners, which is down from 8.8% the previous week.


More evidence that people are fleeing to the suburbs. Home searches for suburban zip codes are surging. “This migration to the suburbs is not a new trend, but it has become more pronounced this spring,” said Javier Vivas, director of economic research. “After several months of shelter-in-place orders, the desire to have more space and the potential for more people to work remotely are likely two of the factors contributing to the popularity of the burbs.”


A repo man is not always intense

32 Responses

  1. NoVA:

    What do you call 200 masked people, mostly white, some of whom are armed, who go to the black mayor of Richmond’s private residence and demand that he comes down to answer to them, and then when he doesn’t, proceed to vandalize the apartment building?

    Answer: a mob.

    Liked by 1 person

  2. i’m sure you all saw the Post story about the blackface and them turning on each other.

    if feel like we went through the exercise before, but we’ll need to assign roles in the camps.


  3. Worth a read:

    “Why Policing Is Broken

    Years of research on brutality cases shows that bad incentives in politics and city bureaucracies are major drivers of police violence

    By Matt Taibbi”


    • I didn’t realize how far back it went, and how much it was endorsed by liberal politicians.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Let liberals understand the role of police unions in this. While conservatives must understand that police do pick more on darker skinned people, liberals need to understand police misconduct resulting in brutality happens to caucasians in larger raw numbers, although not proportionately, and they must understand the overwhelming role of the unions.


      • Is it possible that certain ethnic populations commit crimes at a higher rate than others?

        It’s not like black representation in, say, basketball, is representative of the overall population. If that’s the case, are they legitimately targeted?


        • Yes,to the first, but probably not, to the second.

          At least, that was my personal experience. Response times to calls for police help in Austin were always much faster on the west side of IH35 and when the police did get to the east side scene they too often picked out the wrong person as a perp [sometimes the caller]!


        • My argument would be that excelling at athletics reflect natural physical prowess while we high criminality reflects the consequences of the Great Society.


      • Mark:

        While conservatives must understand that police do pick more on darker skinned people…

        They also “pick on” more males than females. A lot more, in fact. What should we take from that?


        • Three things: men aged 16-20 are the number one demographic of perps, men are more threatening physically to cops, and male cops are more likely to cut a female some slack.


        • Mark:

          Three things: men aged 16-20 are the number one demographic of perps…

          Black men or white men?


        • IDK. FBI says for violent crime men 20-30, more white than black, but over-represented black by quite a bit.


        • Mark:

          …but over-represented black by quite a bit.

          So, then, perhaps police “pick on” blacks disproportionately for the same reason that they “pick on” men disproportionately?


        • Perhaps. I don’t think so. But I do think it is a mistake to think of this as a primarily racial problem. Change the way police are vetted, how strong their immunity is, how careful their training, and how limited their unions can be made and police violence against non-violent suspects will be significantly reduced. Across the board. When I use the term “picking on” I don’t mean stopping and arresting killers, burglars, armed robbers and the like.

          I mean the propensity for violence against citizens for minor or no infractions at all. Or for “back talk”. Or because you called in a fight across the street and then the cops bust down your door because they have your address, without even an apology. This has happened to white folks in Austin, but disproportionately to blacks. Old white lady was thrown down by Round Rock cop on a traffic stop because she gave him some lip. Black schoolteacher was handcuffed and jailed for giving officer some lip on a traffic stop. Lots of unnecessary bullshit.

          These incidents are apparently fewer now but not zeroed out by any means. Your local cops may be more discerning, of course. But APD’s overall rep is fairly good. So I know there are much worse forces out there.


        • I think mostly but also because of profiling (like stop and frisk) which is not unreasonable it the goal is to prevent crime. But reports suggest low level discrimination but not in violent interactions anywhere—which makes sense. If you’re a little bit racist and are going to express that, hassling black folks with traffic stops or stop-and-frisk is a way it might manifest.

          It’s not going to manifest in active or even potential shoot out situations.

          Arguably one might be unconsciously biased and have that show up in deadly altercations but the numbers just don’t support that.

          Will also note that Taboo by Wilfred Reilly is a good and recent book on the topic that I am currently listening to. He also wrote Hate Crime Hoax which will likely be my next listen.


        • “Lots of unnecessary bullshit.”



    • Also included in the resolution is a new, year-round “Black Joy Campaign,” described as resources and training for teachers to identify additional measures of racial inequity and collect data in schools, the newspaper reported.

      Holy crap.


  4. And on to the next round:

    “Protesters tear down statues of Union general Ulysses S. Grant, national anthem lyricist Francis Scott Key

    By Marty Johnson – 06/20/20 08:22 AM EDT”

    Note the academic quoted trying to justify tearing down Grant’s statue. They are cognitively and morally unable to truly describe the nature of what they are seeing.

    And this won’t stop the mob:

    “Many on Twitter pushed back against the toppling of Grant’s statue in San Francisco.”


Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in: Logo

You are commenting using your account. Log Out /  Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out /  Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: