Morning Report: 7% of all mortgages are in forbearance.

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change
S&P futures 2912 42.1
Oil (WTI) 12.71 -0.29
10 year government bond yield 0.64%
30 year fixed rate mortgage 3.43%

 

Stocks are higher this morning as earnings continue to come in. Bonds and MBS are flattish.

 

7% of all mortgages are in forbearance, according to the MBA. Ginnie Mae loans (FHA and VA) are now at 10%. Fannie loans are 4.6% and Freddie are 5.5%. Private label increased to 7.5%. The FHFA has also released a press release saying that lump sum payments at the end of the forbearance period are not required.

 

The Economic Policy Institute (a lefty think tank) estimates from a poll that initial jobless claims are understated by 9 – 14 million due to system problems, in other words people who can’t register because the state unemployment sites are overwhelmed with traffic. If they are right, then the actual number of people who lost their jobs due to COVID is about 37.5 million. In other words, about 662 livelihoods per person who has died from the virus.

 

The COVID lockdown is beginning to affect the food supply as well. At some point the cure is worse than the disease.

 

The Fed begins the two-day FOMC meeting this week. They can’t do much more monetary policy wise, but it sure would be nice if they announced a facility to allow mortgage bankers to repo servicing advances.

 

Home prices rose 0.4% MOM and 3.5% YOY in February, according to the Case-Shiller Home Price Index. It will be interesting to see if the COVID crisis affects home prices nationally. FWIW, Pulte said on its conference call that it hasn’t cut prices at all. In some markets where there is excess spec inventory, builders are adding financing incentives, but not breaking price.

 

We are starting to see warehouse banks curtail high balance loans. Cash-out refis are also getting harder to do. I heard a rumor that Ginnie Mae may also introduce some sort of vehicle to pass some of the forbearance costs onto lenders (perhaps a special pool for forbearance loans). While the government’s forbearance policies may provide relief to homeowners, the unintended consequence is a severe restriction in credit.

 

One of the big trends in the aftermath of the financial crisis was the Millennial Generation preferring to live in urban walkable areas. COVID-19 might have stuck a fork in that trend. Good news for suburban SFR property owners.

19 Responses

  1. The balloon payments that most lenders are requiring for forbearance will be an issue too.

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    • No doubt. If the government can’t push all of the forbearance costs back onto the servicers, then Fannie and Freddie will need another bailout. I think that is the elephant in the room here.

      Liked by 1 person

  2. History is a fractal. It keeps on repeating.

    https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC2714797/

    By early 1958 it was estimated that ‘not less than 9 million people in Great Britain had … Asian influenza during the 1957 epidemic. Of these, more than 5.5 million were attended by their doctors. About 14 000 people died of the immediate effects of their attack.’3 Not only was £10 000 000 spent on sickness benefit, but also with factories, offices and mines closed the economy was hit: ‘Setback in Production — “Recession through Influenza”’

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    • So only 14,000 out of 9 million?

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    • you ate my fractal

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    • It was a double whammy – not only did I and my teammates all get sick and miss 2-3 weeks of school but in the summer I couldn’t find a real job and ended up taking one in a Chinese restaurant washing dishes. The ceiling was 6′ in that kitchen and I was 6’2″. I have not eaten shrimp since.

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    • I kicked the hornets nest on PL over this.

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      • Lemme guess, she’s a lying whore who’s in Putin’s employe as well as OrangeManBad.

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        • No, “We should do an investigation” and “But Trump…”

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        • There is enough contemporary corroboration [reported in detail by the WaPo] to make the allegations credible.
          I will only add, at the risk of being revealed as a now to be defined male chauvinist pig, that our daddies told us to respect women and that meant to respect “no” as “no”. So I am not too moved by groping that stops when “no” is spoken. Women may be easier to read now then when I was young. I dunno. My wife is always right. This is the current rule in my love life.

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        • In this case it’s beyond copping a feel. The broad said that Biden fingered her. That’s a rape allegation rather than a sexual harassment allegation.

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        • Don’t mean to quibble but in TX we only have definitions for “sexual assault” and “aggravated sexual assault” and JB could have been charged with “sexual assault” but not “aggravated sexual assault” in TX. IDK the definitions in DC, of course. Could be you are right!

          In any event, the abuse of power implied in a US Senator trying to diddle a clerk is disgusting. Could explain why he never gave Anita Hill any space in that infamous hearing.

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        • I feel like definitions change. He is alleged to have done more than grope—at the same time I don’t think any DC politician would have considered that anything more than making a pass.

          The protective bubble around politicians in that environment needs to be removed—whatever Biden did he did because he believed it was an option based on the environment, much like pre #MeToo Hollywood. Same as Bob Packwood had learned that pressuring staffers to have sex with him was fine as long as he supported abortion … until it wasn’t. Once everybody stops turning a blind eye, including the media, the behavior will continue.

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    • “Penthouse reported the “waitress sandwich” incident a year before Kelly,”

      You’ve got to love it when Penthouse is the one that originally broke the news on this.

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      • Reinforces what Kev wrote:

        The protective bubble around politicians in that environment needs to be removed

        Has it been?

        Does our current standard require a veto of Kennedy-Clinton-Trump-[Biden]going forward or is it only an information point? Obviously it IS an information point. If it were much more than that, WJC would not have remained popular to this day and DJT could not have won the election. Call it an information point plus, I think. JB should have not chosen Dodd – this will arouse the feminists who are already impatient with JB’s failure to address the fingering allegation [“respectfully”, apparently is their desire, whatever that means].

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      • “I attend a small Midwestern college. I never thought these letters were true…”

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  3. Still off the reservation.

    Like

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