All Things in Moderation

Saudis, Russians Bury Differences, but Mexico Threatens Oil Deal

Mexico exits talks, putting oil truce at risk; negotiations to continue Friday

From The Economist, an article explaining a Russian “dump” of Venezuela enriching a Putin ally at the expense of the Russian people:

ROSNEFT is responsible for 40% of Russia’s oil output, but it is much more than just another oil firm. A large chunk of its shares are owned by the Russian state. Its boss, Igor Sechin, is one of Vladimir Putin’s closest henchmen. …

Bear this in mind when trying to make sense of the announcement, on March 28th, that it has sold all its Venezuelan assets to an unnamed Russian government entity.

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Thanks to a low oil price, sanctions and the Maduro regime’s spectacular corruption and ineptitude, Venezuela is in no position to repay all its debts. But this is not too much of a problem for Rosneft, since it can dump its Venezuelan assets on to Russian taxpayers. They will no doubt be delighted to hear that they have paid for this with 9.6% of Rosneft’s own shares (worth more than $4bn), thus reducing their stake to just over 40%. The deal gives Mr Sechin ever tighter control of the firm.

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The main aim of the deal, it seems, is to help Rosneft escape the consequences of doing business with a pariah. Over the past two months America has penalised the company’s trading arms for handling Venezuelan oil. These sanctions are global in scope and affect its customers, too. Sinochem International, the trading arm of a Chinese state-owned refinery, has rejected Rosneft’s oil. The Kremlin’s solution is to distance Rosneft from Venezuela while reassuring the Venezuelan kleptocracy that it still has Russia’s backing. “I received a message from brother president Vladimir Putin who ratified his comprehensive strategic support for all areas of our [relationship],” tweeted Mr Maduro.

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 The Kremlin would like cheap oil to drive American shale producers, whose costs are higher, out of business. This is a risky game. Russia has alienated the Saudis, who might draw closer to America as a result. Rosneft can survive oil at $25 a barrel. But under Russian law the royalties it pays to the Russian state fall sharply as the oil price slides. As covid-19 spreads in Russia, Mr Putin will have to draw on the country’s reserves to help ordinary people cope. Mr Sechin’s sleight of hand has solved a problem for Rosneft, but not for Russia. ■