Morning Report: Home ages climb

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P futures 2842 -11.5
Eurostoxx index 386.37 -3.68
Oil (WTI) 67.28 0.48
10 Year Government Bond Yield 2.90%
30 Year fixed rate mortgage 4.58%

Stocks are lower this morning on overseas weakness. Bonds and MBS are up on the risk-off trade.

Inflation at the consumer level remains under control, with the Consumer Price Index rising 0.2% MOM and 2.9% YOY. Stripping out food and energy, it rose 0.2% / 2.4%. A big driver of the increase was shelter, adding 0.3%. Food rose slightly while energy declined.

The EU and the US are scheduled to meet to discuss ways to bring down tariffs. The US would like to see more soybean and energy exports to the Continent, and is hoping to derail a potential pipeline of natural gas from Russia to Germany.

The Turkish Lira is in freefall, and there is discussion of how that will affect Euro banks, specifically BBVA, BNP Paribas, and Unicredito. Yields on the Turkish 10 year bond have hit 20%. This is causing a flight to quality which is benefiting US bonds. While Turkey is probably not big enough to cause any sort of contagion, it could cause the ECB to go a little slower on policy normalization. Note Trump is stirring the pot, threatening to double tariffs.

Fannie Mae has also announced forbearance policies for borrowers affected by the California wildfires. Borrowers can get up to 12 months forbearance without penalty if they live in FEMA-designated disaster areas.

The average age of a home is 37 years old, according to the American Communities Survey. This really speaks to how weak housing starts have been since the real estate bubble burst. Pre-bubble they averaged 1.5 million a year.

Slower delivery times are beginning to affect manufacturers (and their earnings reports). Ultimately, bottlenecks are usually inflationary. This is also the downside of making supply chains elongated and lean – capacity is maxed so meeting incremental demand requires investment that many firms are reluctant to make. The good news is that demand is strong, but the downside is that this is yet one more inflationary issue. The odd thing is that capacity utilization is sitting at 78%, which is about the historical average.

18 Responses

  1. Good Twitter thread about nuking the Japs.


  2. “Surprisingly, among the 127 participants open to dating a trans person, almost half selected a trans person of a gender incongruent with their stated sexual orientation. For example, 50% of the trans-inclusive straight women and 28% of the trans-inclusive gay men were willing to date a trans woman, even though one wouldn’t expect either straight women or gay men to be attracted to women”

    it’s a fucking mystery.

    The high rates of trans exclusion from potential dating pools are undoubtedly due in part to cisnormativity, cissexism, and transphobia — all of which lead to lack of knowledge about transgender people and their bodies, discomfort with these unknowns, and fear of being discriminated against by proxy of one’s romantic partner. It is also possible that at least some of the trans exclusion is due to the fact that for some people, sexual orientation might be not (just) about a partner’s gender identity, but attraction to specific body types and/or judgment of reproductive capabilities.

    Get out.


    • nova:

      it’s a fucking mystery.

      lol. Seriously, this is the twilight zone. On this:

      The high rates of trans exclusion from potential dating pools are undoubtedly due in part to cisnormativity, cissexism, and transphobia

      So if I understand this correctly, if a man is so uncomfortable with his own body that he needs to pretend he is a woman, that is a perfectly acceptable expression of his “identity”. But if I am so uncomfortable with that same man’s body that I refuse to entertain the possibility of a sexual relationship with him, I a “cissexist” and a “transphobe”. Hmmmm….got it.


    • You bigots better start banging trannies, ASAP!


    • Now they are just being silly.

      I’m wondering how The Crying Game would go over today, if it were a new movie.

      The goal of both the left generally and the young millennial left in particular is to make everybody else as sick-to-death of their shit as possible.


    • Cue “Why can’t a woman be more like a man?” from My Fair Lady (1964)


      • Men make great women, in fact, because they’re men they make better women than women do.

        Liked by 1 person

      • That’s a good movie. Hopefully, our enlightened overlords will be able to burn the hatespeech film and shove it down the memory hole!

        My Fair Individual, the 2020 version, will feature a rewritten version of that song entitled: “Why Can’t All Men Be Dead”. It will be about a young cockney Christian youth (assigned a masculine gender at birth by a patriarchal doctor) who is taken in by a sexually ambiguous lesbian.

        The sexually ambiguous lesbian, in order to make him more palatable to elite society, convinces him to have a sex-change operation and become a vegan.

        Finally, xe rebels, finding independence from Ms. Higgins, denouncing xer in the press for still subscribing to oppressive cisnormative terms like lesbian and transwoman. Even the fact that Ms. Higgins reveals xe’s gotten pregnant several times through artificial insemination, only to terminate the pregnancy in favor of xer career, doersn’t save xer. Xer reputation is ruined, so she seeks assisted suicide through government funded euthanasia programs, and that way, in death, xe is finally redeemed.

        Movie ends with a rousing musical call for all white people and most cisnormals to kill themselves to make way for their superiors and stop wasting the precious resources of the earth.

        This stuff just writes itself!


  3. Good thread.


    • That blue wave is practically GUARANTEED! Lord know the majority of Americans want a complete destruction of the American political system when leftist SJWs don’t get everything they want.


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