Morning Report; Despite strong data, more people are worried about their jobs 8/9/18

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P futures 2859 3.5
Eurostoxx index 389.41 -0.28
Oil (WTI) 67.29 0.35
10 Year Government Bond Yield 2.94%
30 Year fixed rate mortgage 4.58%

Stocks are higher this morning on decent earnings. Bonds and MBS are up.

Very slow news day.

Initial Jobless Claims fell to 213,000 last week, an exceptionally low level. The 4 week average is sitting at 45 year lows.

Inflation at the wholesale level was surprisingly weak in the first of two inflation readings this week. The Producer Price Index was flat MOM and rose 3.3% YOY. Ex-food and energy, it rose 0.1% MOM / 2.7% YOY. Tariffs explain some of it, but freight and packaging costs pushing prices higher too.

Freddie Mac has extended mortgage forbearance measures due to the wildfires in California. Borrowers in FEMA-declared disaster areas may be allowed to suspend mortgage payments without penalty for up to a year. Fannie Mae is expected to do something similar.

Fannie Mae’s Home Purchase Sentiment Index fell in July for the second consecutive month as inventory and affordability issues weighed on homebuyer moods. The net number of respondents who think it is a good time to buy fell by 4 percentage points and the number who think it is a good time to sell fell by 6. Most respondents think mortgage rates and home prices will rise over the next year. One interesting data point: a big jump in the number of people who are worried about their job. The net number of people (% who are concerned less the % who are not concerned) fell by 11 percentage points. This certainly flies in the face of the data out there, and sentiment surveys are usually not very predictive, but it is a surprise.

10 Responses

  1. “One interesting data point: a big jump in the number of people who are worried about their job.”

    Did they only survey house Republicans?


    Seriously, our problem is finding and keeping qualified people (and that the fact that there is no such thing as upward wage pressure in the opinion of our compensation department). We’ve had people leave to the tune of doubling their pay. Memphis is not exactly an economic Powerhouse but there is plenty of work to be had. Even if a given job fell through, there would be another one out there.


  2. I thought this was good… Why Jordan Peterson strikes such a nerve on the left…

    My take on it is that JP elicits such rage and mocking because the left believes culture belongs solely to them, and they cannot stand the fact that an unauthorized interloper is saying stuff that is off-message.

    I also think the left does realize that identity politics has jumped the shark, and they also realize it.


    • It’s also mannerisms and the ability to frustrate interviewers on the left.

      Having Hannity, et al being their primary opposition for so long has made this generation slack when it comes to actually debating.

      Peterson is far closer to William F. Buckley Jr. than Alex Jones when it comes to being able to actually defend an argument.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Also he analyzes them. In real time. He doesn’t insult them or call them liars, he uses that psychology background of his and literally starts a process of a kind of “combative psychoanalysis” on them.

      And these are people for whom general “therapy” is self-administered or esteem-bolstering sessions, not actual clinical analysis. They aren’t prepared for accurate observations about their own immediate behavior or penetrating questions.

      He’s the atheist asking why, if God is all-powerful, he lets so many awful things happen in the midst of the Baptist convention. He’s not a casual infidel. He is a threat to the primacy of their faith, and the power of their church.


    • Well, I can only assume there are a large number of dedicated True Believers scrubbing everything Caitlin Flanagan ever wrote and listening to every hour of any interview or podcast she’s ever participated in, hoping to find the smoking gun to get her out of the Holy Church of the Atlantic, which I think everyone can agree has gone entirely too Episcopalian and seems to let in just anybody, if the appropriate boycott can’t be organized.


  3. Well this does it!

    I don’t understand why the lefties want to force immigrants to stay in this fucked up country. How is forcing illegals to stay here not a violation of international law?

    Liked by 1 person

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