Morning Report: GDP comes in at 3.5% 12/22/16

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2259.3 -1.3
Eurostoxx Index 360.1 -0.4
Oil (WTI) 52.2 0.1
US dollar index 93.3 0.1
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.57%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.29

Stocks are flattish this morning on no major news. Bonds and MBS are flat as well.

We have a slew of economic data this morning.

The final revision for third quarter GDP came in at 3.5%. This is the fastest quarterly growth rate in two years. The GDP price index increased 1.4%. The early estimate for the fourth quarter is about 2.2%. The Fed is forecasting 2% growth for 2017.

House prices rose 0.4% MOM and are up 6.2% YOY, according to the FHFA House Price Index. As you can see from the chart below, we are at record highs for the index. Note the FHFA HPI only covers loans with a GSE / government loan, so it excludes the high end and cash sales.

Durable goods orders fell 4.5% last month. Ex-transportation they increased 0.5%. The core capital goods rate rose 0.9%. The core rate is a good approximation for business capital expenditures.

Initial Jobless Claims rose to 275k last week. This is a 6 month high, but is still quite low by historical standards.

Corporate profits rose 4.3% YOY in the third quarter. If we get some sort of corporate tax reform and regulatory relief, they could rise substantially. That is what the rally in the S&P 500 is telling you.

Economic growth downshifted slightly in November, according to the Chicago Fed National Activity Index.

President Elect Donald Trump named Carl Icahn to be his adviser on regulatory overhaul. “Under President Obama, America’s business owners have been crippled by over $1 trillion in new regulations and over 750 billion hours dealing with paperwork,” Icahn said in a statement released by the Trump transition team. “It’s time to break free of excessive regulation and let our entrepreneurs do what they do best: create jobs and support communities.” There will be all sorts of conflict-of-interest issues with the appointment, as Carl owns stock in many companies that are affected by government regulation.

Refis held steady in November, despite the big increase in rates, according to Ellie Mae. Time to close picked up slightly to 49 days from 48 the month before. Adjustable rate mortgages fell to 3.9%, a new low.

53 Responses

    • so when do they go from deranged to dangerous?


      • nova:

        so when do [did] they go from deranged to dangerous?

        That makes more sense, I think.


        • Election night, or thereabouts, when they started burning down churches and engaging in other potentially deadly crimes (or fake hate crimes meant to incite real, possibly violent, outrage) in order to blame Trump supporters for them.

          Basically, when it became clear that almost half the country doesn’t agree with them, still.


  1. Also Amazon’s Man in the High Castle Season 2 is great, especially for any WW II history aficionados.


    • jnc:

      Also Amazon’s Man in the High Castle Season 2 is great, especially for any WW II history aficionados.

      I’ve been watching. I think I am on episode 5 of season 2. I am enjoying it, although not sure I am actually understanding it.


      • It’s like Lost with Nazis.

        I like it because I believe it shows what a real fascist US would look like, not the Trump BS.


      • I like it. It’s interesting that Hitler is apparently aware that their are alternative realities where he was not victorious in WWII, and the allies one (and also other realities that are even worse than the present one). No sense at the end of the 1st season how he was getting the material or what he meant to do with it.


    • Homer: Ah, the Luftwaffe: the Washington Generals of the History Channel.


  2. It’s either going to be genius or a disaster, but it’s definitely not going to be like any administration in recent memory.

    Liked by 1 person

    • So the state department will be staffed with hot chicks.

      sounds like every successful marketing department. i worked with at a place once where their marketing model was sending hot 20somethings to meet with hospital CEOs. they sold a lot of consulting work.

      Liked by 1 person

  3. Worth a note:

    “We finally have an effective Ebola vaccine. The war on the disease is about to change.
    The virus was discovered in 1976.
    Updated by Julia Belluz
    Dec 22, 2016, 6:30pm EST”

    Liked by 1 person

  4. Still melting down.

    “Washington Is Governed by Fear Now
    Trump and Republicans in Congress have good reason to be scared of each other—and that might hold the party together, despite conflicting agendas.
    By Jeet Heer
    December 22, 2016”


    • The regulatory agencies are shitting bricks right now…


      • Brent:

        The regulatory agencies are shitting bricks right now…

        I read rumors today about Obama political appointees changing their status to career employees in order to make it more difficult for Trump to get rid of them, so they can help stymie any regulatory changes he might try to make. No idea how or even if this really can happen, but it wouldn’t surprise me.

        Like the mainstream media, the regulatory bureaucracy has largely been captured by the progressive left.


  5. The markets are closed, and I am on my way. Merry Christmas to all. Have a good one.

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Merry Christmas everyone!


  7. Just popping in to wish you all a Merry Christmas and Mark a Happy Hanukkah!!!!

    May your days be Merry & Bright!

    Liked by 1 person

  8. Merry Christmas, Happy Hanukkah, and Festivus to everyone…


  9. Merry Ramadan and a Happy Kwanzaa to to all. Christian and Jews are oppressors, so I do not celebrate their so-called “holidays” of oppression.

    Merry Winter Solstice!

    Recently on Facebook a guy related a story of wishing a customer service person Merry Christmas. Apparently, the guy was offended, and explained he was a Muslim and did not celebrate Christmas. The Facebook friend wished him Merry Christmas again, told him Jesus saves, and hung up.

    This mystifies me, though. I can’t imagine having that reaction to any normal exchange of pleasantries in customer service, no matter what my personal orientation. How many people who don’t believe in anything just wish the customer a “Merry Christmas” back, instead of huffily announcing they don’t believe in the customer’s false god? “Learn some science, you redneck!”

    The entitlement is astounding. Talk about checking your privilege.


    • It’s hard to decide who’s more zealous, Muzzies or atheists.

      Liked by 1 person

      • When it comes to thinking you get to shit on customers no matter where you work or what you do, I’m guessing righteous and easily offended Muslims.

        Of course, they are also more secure in their jobs, or have been, in recent history, as atheists going off on customers for wishing them “Merry Christmas” would have to worry about getting fired, rather than looked at as the victim in that scenario.

        Give your average atheist the same revered religious protection of other non-Christian religions deemed to be oppressed by Xtians, and I expect the level of entitlement would be the same.


    • That he was more worried about Islamaphobia than catching a mass murderer, or that he’s facing resignation? I can totally believe that first one.


      • IMO, obama firmly believes that Islamophobia is worse than terrorism. Hence the lecture about tolerance every time we get one.

        I am sure he believes it is just something we should put up with.


    • Guys like that are more worried about slip and fall deaths because there are more of them than terrorism related ones.

      They fail to understand that accidents don’t tear at society


    • McWing:

      Gonna be honest, I’m surprised D’s are embracing nullification.

      It is always a mistake to extrapolate from a particular thing the D’s do to a general principle.


  10. Still melting down:

    “Soon after his inauguration next month, President-elect Donald Trump will nominate someone to the Supreme Court, which has been hamstrung by a vacancy since the death of Justice Antonin Scalia in February. There will be public debates about the nominee’s credentials, past record, judicial philosophy and temperament. There will be Senate hearings and a vote.

    No matter how it plays out, Americans must remember one thing above all: The person who gets confirmed will sit in a stolen seat.

    It was stolen from Barack Obama, a twice-elected president who fulfilled his constitutional duty more than nine months ago by nominating Merrick Garland, a highly qualified and widely respected federal appellate judge.”

    Liked by 1 person

  11. So willful misinterpretation of statements by triggered leftists is going to be the new normal for the next four years…


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