Morning Report: Lennar beats expectations 12/19/16

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2256.8 1.5
Eurostoxx Index 359.6 -0.4
Oil (WTI) 51.7 -0.2
US dollar index 93.2 0.1
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.55%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.29

Stocks are up this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up as well.

Not much in the way of economic data this morning, however Janet Yellen speaks at 1:30pm EST.

The flash services PMI fell slightly to 43.5.

Today the Electoral College votes for President. The vote will then go to Congress to be certified in early January.

Homebuilder Lennar reported earnings this morning, with revenues up 15%, new orders up 12%, and backlog up 17%. Average selling prices rose only 2.9% to $357k, which indicates that home price appreciation is slowing. The press release didn’t address the cancellation rate, which will probably begin to grow for the builders as higher rates kick in. Lennar has a November 30 fiscal year, so it is probably a little early to see how higher rates are affecting them.

Lenders foresee a drop in margins and demand going forward as rates rise, according to the Fannie Mae Quarterly Lender Survey.  Fully 2/3 of lenders view rates as “not favorable” at the moment. Lenders expect margin compression as well as refi shops cut prices to stay competitive. Lenders do expect to continue to ease lending standards. Lenders also intend to execute more through the GSEs and the government and plan to reduce the number of loans they hold on their balance sheet.

CoreLogic put out its forecasts for 2017. Home price appreciation will slow into 2017 as higher mortgage rates and home prices take a bite out of demand. Credit quality will remain good, however and we will start to see more HELOC activity, while refis will decrease. Vacancy rates will remain low, and rental inflation will be around 3%.

Here is a look at the effects of rising rates for the mortgage lending sector.

33 Responses

  1. dude needs a BJ in the worst way.

    Liked by 2 people

  2. I have to say that the election of Donald Trump has been caused the most interesting exhibit of leftist projection ever…

    Liked by 1 person

  3. Live electoral college updates:

    Trump currently at 170, HRC at 83. The tension is unbearable!

    (When Trump officially secures the EC vote, will that set off a new round of meltdowns on the left?)

    Liked by 1 person

  4. First Trump gets elected, then Paul Waldman writes a column that you guys might agree with.

    Hell must have frozen over.

    Liked by 1 person

    • From Waldman:

      While that can happen on either side, it’s particularly acute with liberal celebrities, because their involvement in the campaign reinforces precisely the argument Republicans are trying to make, which is that Democrats are the party of the “elite” — not the economic elite, but an intellectual and cultural elite supposedly alien from the values and interests of ordinary, “heartland”

      Yup. What Waldman just can’t grasp is that reason it is so hard to stop the Hollywood elite from reinforcing the R narrative is because the narrative is actually true. As long as the D’s and the Hollywood elite are true to themselves, they will necessarily reinforce the R narrative.


    • Or the meltdown is ending and reality is setting in.

      Liked by 1 person

    • Eh, he’s not wrong.


  5. Irony alert.. obama warns trump about overusing executive orders.. That is like Charlie Sheen lecturing people about temperance…

    Trump should have told obama to stick his pen and phone up his ass…


  6. The left has some advice for us white guys:


  7. So does Krugman simply top the impressive list of the most dishonest hacks ever employed by the NYT, or is he quite literally insane? I can’t think of a third alternative.


    • BTW, it has just occurred to me that the Boston Red Sox unprecedented and shocking win in the 2004 ALCS after being down 3 games to 0 needs to be recorded with an asterisk pointing out that Red Sox won the ALCS despite losing the runs-scored total, 45-41. And we should really re-think how the MLB playoffs work. It is an outrage that the team that scores the most runs can still lose the series.


      • my dream as a kid was to win a world series with four 1-0 wins and huge losses that didn’t end up mattering in the other three games. i thought that would be the both hilarious and demoralizing for the other team.


        • nova:

          i thought that would be the both hilarious and demoralizing for the other team.

          And it has been both over the last month!


  8. Just an FYI, I used to be able to get to the comment view (where all the comments are listed without nesting) by clicking on the “My Sites” at the top left of the screen (desktop view) then selecting “comments” from the drop-down menu. “Comments” is now gone. Any suggestions?


    • McWing:

      “Comments” is now gone. Any suggestions?

      What device are you using? On my computer, it looks the same as it always has. But on my ipad I have experienced in the past the problem you describe. Next to where it says “my sites” there should be three lines which is actually a dropdown menu. If you click on that, you should be able to see the “comments” choice.


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