Morning Report: Mortgage credit eased in October 11/7/16

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 25109.8 30.0
Eurostoxx Index 333.4 4.0
Oil (WTI) 44.5 0.5
US dollar index 88.0 0.4
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.82%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.61

Stocks are higher this morning after the FBI absolved Hillary Clinton of her email woes. Bonds and MBS are down.

Tomorrow we will go to the polls to vote in our fearless leader. Here is a cheat sheet for how markets should react based on the consensus of strategists. Punch line: Trump is negative for stocks, and positive for bonds. Hillary is the opposite. The effect will be only short-term as well. That said, IMO the black swan event is a D sweep.

Meanwhile, the fast money is hiding in gold.

Consumer spending increased in October, according to Gallup. A poll of consumers indicated that they spent on average $93 a day in October from $91 in September.

Credit eased somewhat in October, according to the MBA’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index. The jumbo end of the market drove the increase. Since the depths of the real estate bust, mortgage credit has increased tremendously, however compared to the bubble days it is extremely tight.

The labor market improved in October, according to the Labor Market Conditions Index. It rose to 0.7 from -0.2 in September. The LMCI is a composite index of various leading and lagging labor market indices, so it shouldn’t have much of an effect on markets.

55+ housing had a strong 3rd quarter, according to the NAHB.

Realtors have a huge influence of a borrower’s lender decision, according to a new survey out of Freddie Mac. The biggest factors are ease of doing business, reputation and the strength of their relationship with the realtor. From the article: “Eighty-four percent of real estate professionals have a select group of lenders to which they generally refer their clients. Of these, 73 percent have 1-3 lenders in their network and 24 percent work with 4-6 lenders. More than three-quarters (76 percent) say their clients always or often use their recommended lender referrals. This figure climbs to 87 percent among those who sell more than 20 properties per year.”

85 Responses

  1. Kevin, I think the most recent Westworld was the best yet and finally shows where it’s going.

    Also if you haven’t seen the original 1970’s movie, you should. They are referencing it more.

    Like

  2. well, i did manage to trade my Johnson vote in VA for one in Maryland. so that’s something. i’m hoping for the 5%.

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  3. From Vox:

    http://www.vox.com/policy-and-politics/2016/11/7/13532178/donald-trump-american-democracy-weakness

    “The thing I keep coming back to is the Muslim ban,” says MSNBC’s Chris Hayes. “That was an actual policy he called for while running for president, and if you switched in Jews for Muslims, it was immediately clear what it was. And it wasn’t disqualifying. To me, that was so, so upsetting.”

    Irrespective of the wisdom of the policy, Chris Hayes seemed to forgotten where a small minority of Muslims keep committing terrorist acts, killing infidels, and routinely promising to kill Americans. And there has been chatter about plans to get terrorist and sleepers into Americans through refugee immigration . . . which is a small but critical difference between Trump’s espoused policy and any historical attitudes against Jewish immigration.

    Like

    • Trump was not planning to ban Muslims from the US. Ever.

      This is just more of the same disingenuous D spin the MSM treats as fact.

      Like

      • More to the point, Trump was saying options needs to be discussed and considered, without all sorts of options being unavailable due to political correctness. One might suspect that some of the left object to discussions that include topics they don’t approve of. Or something.

        I love the fair, objective, “facts have a liberal bias” crowd. And it’s not like Trump can’t be challenged on his real positions and things he’s really said and his many, many flaws. Why things have to be exaggerated to be nothing like what they originally were mystifies me. Bad is never bad enough. Temporary pause on Syrian refugees, we might need to look at restricting Muslim immigrations becomes a “Muslim ban”.

        And still, down to the wire, there’s hand-writing over Donald Trump the fascist and autocrat, and how the founding fathers warned us he would come and take over and turn us into a fascist monarchy . . . as if that was remotely possible.

        The smart people have demonstrated, in this election cycle, they desperate need an education in American civics.

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        • “Why things have to be exaggerated to be nothing like what they originally were mystifies me.”

          Because the left has one and one only guiding principle: that they must be in charge as anyone else is too stupid and / or immoral to handle that responsibility. And everything is fair game in ensuring that happens.

          They know they are doing it. They don’t care. And all the sturm and drang over authoritarianism is pretty rich coming from the group who supports obama and rules by non-democratic means like regulatory fiat and lawsuits…

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    • And of course Hayes is confused over how people could possibly prefer Trump over “elites” on that issue.

      He should look in the mirror.

      Liked by 1 person

      • That whole article is Ezra Klein worried over how regular people picked the Republican candidate against the will of the elites who control the party. Something is clearly wrong, with every day folks with all their prejudices and failings are making the decisions, instead of their intellectual betters.

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    • KW:

      “The thing I keep coming back to is the Muslim ban,” says MSNBC’s Chris Hayes. “That was an actual policy he called for while running for president, and if you switched in Jews for Muslims, it was immediately clear what it was. And it wasn’t disqualifying. To me, that was so, so upsetting.”

      Hmmm…The thing that I keep coming back to is “vote for me because I am a woman”. That is an actual argument HRC made while running for president, and if you switched in “man” for “woman”, it was immediately clear what it was. And it wasn’t disqualifying. To me, that is so, so upsetting.

      Liked by 1 person

      • only the left is permitted to play the identity card.

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      • Just because you’ve been playing the identity card your whole life doesn’t mean that others can’t.

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        • Mich:

          Just because you’ve been playing the identity card your whole life…

          Can you provide me with a single instance in which I have “played the identity card”? Thanks.

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        • I’m kind of of the opinion that whites, and especially white males, are only now playing the identity card, because identity politics are only useful or compelling to marginalized groups and their members, and only over the past three or four decades, in the post affirmative-action world, are white males being marginalized. When you are the “dominant” (or default) group, there’s no reason for identity politics because you are the default. When you cease to be the default, both the “need” and the inclination to play the identity card becomes much greater. And, predictably, saying “No, you don’t get to play the identity card, you’re a white male” gets about the same reception as you’d expect it to get with anybody else playing identity politics.

          Liked by 1 person

        • When’s the last time you voted for someone who isn’t a white man for president?

          There’s nothing wrong with identity politics when the candidate is qualified.

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        • Mich:

          When’s the last time you voted for someone who isn’t a white man for president?

          Identity politics relates to why you vote for a person, not just the fact that you vote for them. Never in my life have I voted for someone because they shared some arbitrary physical characteristic with me. Nor even that they shared some particular experience with me. I have only ever voted for someone based on the ideas/policies they espouse.

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        • “Can you provide me with a single instance in which I have “played the identity card”? Thanks.”

          I can’t think of one myself, but, generally, folks like Trump constantly play the identity card. Nationalism and xenophobia are cards in the deck, same way victimology and special privileges are.

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        • And, look, “vote for me because I’m a woman and this gives me special insights” isn’t all that different than “vote for me because I’m a business person and that gives me special insights” or “vote for me I’m an entrenched politician and have been all my life and that makes me uniquely qualified”.

          Because, again, that goes back the “default” mode: in politics, men don’t need to play identity cards because it’s always been men who became president. “Vote for me because I’m a woman” is an effective card to play, where as “vote for me because I am male” is not.

          I’d vote for Margaret Thatcher for president, if that was an option, and not just because she was a woman but because, wow, what a woman! She was an iron lady. And I’d be lying if I said the fact she was a tough-as-nails, a$$-kicking lady wouldn’t figure into it.

          Identity politics exist, and has in some form forever, because it’s effective, and people respond to it.

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        • KW:

          And, look, “vote for me because I’m a woman and this gives me special insights” isn’t all that different than “vote for me because I’m a business person and that gives me special insights” or “vote for me I’m an entrenched politician and have been all my life and that makes me uniquely qualified”.

          I think they are quite different. I can at least imagine how business or government experience might give one special insights relevant to being president. I can’t imagine how being a woman might provide any insights relevant to being president. That’s just straight up sexism.

          And, BTW, the idea that one is uniquely qualified because of physical characteristics shared by 50% of the population is pretty much wrong by definition.

          Identity politics exist, and has in some form forever, because it’s effective, and people respond to it.

          I can understand why a political strategist might care whether appeals to identity politics are effective, but I can’t understand why that would or should matter to voters who are the objects of those appeals. Lying to voters is pretty effective, too, but that doesn’t mean we shouldn’t condemn politicians when they do lie.

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        • “When’s the last time you voted for someone who isn’t a white man for president?”

          that’s not ID politics. unless the vote is cast because of the candidates demographics.

          ID politics also assumes the group benefits because one of its members wins office. I don’t see that playing out ..ever.

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        • @novahockey: “D politics also assumes the group benefits because one of its members wins office. I don’t see that playing out ..ever.”

          I see votes cast under the assumption that the group benefits because one of it’s members wins office. I don’t ever see those benefits materializing, but of course once one becomes a powerful elected official, there new identity group is not racial or gender-based, but power-based. Their new group is the ruling elite.

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  4. You know, we always poo-poo identity politics. But I think I’m in favor of it now.

    Unless you’re a serious comic book geek and tech geek and film geek, you can’t possibly understand my issues and what is important to me. If you want my vote, you had better know the difference between Star Trek and Star Wars, and the difference between Marvel and DC, and how DNS servers work. If you don’t? Unqualified!

    Like

    • Because countries with identity politics are so stable and peacefull.

      This Connor Friesdorf piece gets to it nicely:

      “Even the most naive iteration of colorblindness looks damned good next to the subset of people who’ve interrogated their whiteness and then embraced white supremacy or separatism. The academic left casts all proponents of color-blindness as naive. Perhaps they’re correct that the ideal of colorblindness alone will never bring about an America where anti-black racism is no more prevalent than anti-Irish racism is today. But isn’t it more naive to imagine that masses of white people will identify more strongly with their racial tribe and then sacrifice the interests of that tribe?

      There is no precedent for such a trajectory.”

      http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/09/the-lefts-attack-on-color-blindness-goes-too-far/403477/

      Like

  5. Dogwhistle: The way everything anybody you disagree with says about anything becomes racist, sexist, homophobic or anti-Semitic.

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    • Hi Kevin, how have you been? I miss all of you guys sometimes and especially the comedy!

      Like

      • It’s been busy. Deadling with dad’s dementia the cleaning out and selling his hoarder house. My sister and myself have co-durable power of attorney, which is also not ideal. Wife recently had heart surgery to plug the hole in her heart, but it’s 2016 so they just guided a tube from a vein in her going to her heart and opened up the patch like a little umbrella. Technology is amazing. Now, she’s having issues with tachycardia and they want her to have a thyroid test . . .

        And my oldest daughter is back together (for the eighteenth time) with her piece-of-shït boyfriend . . . he didn’t go to college, can’t hold down a job, ridicules her for going to college (oh, no, wait, now it’s him “just kidding”) and is a sociopath. So could be worse, could be better. How are you?

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        • That surgery sounds amazing. Walter’s was too really. The third wire from the device actually went through his heart and back out to attach to one of the lower chambers.

          Too bad about your daughter’s boyfriend. I remember those days of dating issues with my kids, hopefully she’ll wake up sooner than later. Our granddaughter is dating someone I’m not too thrilled with either so I know how you feel.

          Personally I’m doing great. Still lifting weights and running now. Swim occasionally but mostly in the summer. No health issues at all so I feel pretty lucky. I finally gained some weight permanently and feel stronger for it.

          We’re still working but consider ourselves semi-retired. Just not ready to pull the plug on the business yet.

          Liked by 1 person

  6. Hmmmm, I voted, didn’t want to but I did. Couldn’t pull the trigger for Hillary so voted for Gary Johnson. I’m not in love with him either but I had to go third party which is what I’ve pretty much done my entire life. I wouldn’t have voted at all except there are so many fucking propositions this election I just couldn’t let them slide by without a vote, and one of the guys running for Assemblyman here grew up with my daughters and is a real asshole so had to vote against him…….excuse my French this morning, I’ve learned to hate elections…..LOL

    Are you guys going to have an election party here tonight? I’ll check in if you are!

    Things here are returning to normal……….got both daughter’s married off, Walter’s recovering from surgery #1 and is the proud owner of a beautiful defibrillator/pace maker/3rd wire device, waiting still for prostate surgery but he’s feeling a bit better, my frozen shoulder is completely healed and I’m running my first 10K race a week from Saturday.

    Hope you’re all doing well!

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    • Forgot to mention that my son and family voted for Trump…..uggghhh, both daughters and their mates voted for Hillary………..also uggghhh! 😉

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    • Good to hear from you lms. Much like NoVA, I’m having to do the responsible thing and vote HRC. “I’m stuck with her”. I’d rather vote for Johnson.

      I think Trump is going to outperform expectations, but not win.

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      • jnc:

        I’m having to do the responsible thing and vote HRC.

        And here I thought I couldn't get any more depressed.

        BTW, didn't nova say he voted for Johnson?

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      • OMG, you seriously voted for her? I might have if I thought there was a chance Trump could win CA but I wouldn’t have expected you to do it!

        I’m just so glad no one here thinks Trump is an appropriate candidate. It gives me hope oddly, praying he doesn’t come too close even.

        Hope you’re doing well jnc! 🙂

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        • He doesn’t bother me as a candidate, I sincerely prefer the Cuda.

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        • lms:

          I’m just so glad no one here thinks Trump is an appropriate candidate.

          I think Trump is horrible, but no more horrible than HRC. They are, perhaps, horrible in different ways, but one is no more palatable than the other. In fact, if the binary choice between the two came down to my vote and my vote alone, I would cast it for Trump. I think that he will ultimately be able to do less damage to our constitutional order than HRC can do, because HRC will have the full support of all the other D’s in government and the media, whereas Trump will be opposed by the media, the D’s, and a good portion of the R’s in congress. Congress is far more likely to act (as it is supposed to) as a check on executive power with Trump in office than with HRC in office.

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        • I always just though you were a little bit in love with Sarah……….:)

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        • If I could vote for a way to make it look like Trump won just to see the rending of garments from some on the left, I would But, that’s rude of me. No, I don’t think Trump would make a president but I suspect he’d be a better president than he was a presidential candidate. He was awful at that.

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        • I can appreciate all of that Scott. I do agree they’re both horrible. I suppose if I really had to choose, if my vote suddenly became important, I’d probably vote for Hillary. As far as I know she still has some check on her authority in the Senate and Congress. I think we’re at least due for just more status quo and not that many changes with her. I don’t know though it’s a real mess isn’t it?

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        • I still love pre-election Sarah Palin. And I still like her, I just think she had something of a breakdown after they lost against Obama.

          I don’t like Trump as a candidate and would prefer him not to be president. Would’ve like someone to vote for, but there’s not. But I also don’t like the “everybody who likes Trump is a racist-bigot-sexist-xenophobe” thing. But it will prevent a mass exodus to the Democrats, however, whose moral purity tests will end up helping keep Republicans Republican.

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        • “OMG, you seriously voted for her?”

          Yes, while opposing pretty much all of her policies. It came down to voting for the crook, because it was important.

          But I expect the House to stay Republican, so gridlock is always the fall back position.

          Liked by 2 people

      • You need a t-shirt that says:

        “I’m With Her”

        “(At Gunpoint)”

        “(Call of the Police)”

        Then the logo.

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      • I believe that NoVA posted on PL that he was going to have to vote for her because both he and I rate Trump’s chances higher than are generally being credited.

        NoVA was then going to go have his arm amputated.

        Liked by 1 person

  7. Are any of you going to be around tonight watching the results? It’s depressing but I’ll probably still be watching just in case I need to pack a bag and find my passport! 🙂

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    • lms:

      but I’ll probably still be watching just in case I need to pack a bag and find my passport!

      Now, now. If you didn’t leave under Obama, there’s no need to leave under HRC.

      Like

    • I will try to pop in. I’m expecting a clear HRC victory, although there might be some nail biting here and there. Mostly curious to see if Trump conceded graciously or does not.

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    • Probably not. Democrats/progressives/liberals can enjoy their night of gloating.

      Facebook is currently intolerable.

      Liked by 1 person

      • Hey, who are you on Facebook? I’ll friend you and make your Facebook experience more tolerable, with Charlie Brown cartoons and inspirational memes.

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      • Facebook has been intolerable for a year now! I almost never check in anymore. I occasionally check for pics from my DIL of the grandkids but otherwise it’s either political fighting or political propaganda. I can’t even imagine checking in there tonight.

        Liked by 1 person

      • Ever see Tropic Thunder? Remember the Ludacris song at the end? That’s how I feel about my Facebook feed right now:

        “Yeek yeek woop woop! why you all in my ear?!
        Talking a whole bunch of shit
        That I ain’t trying to hear!
        Get back motherfucker! You don’t know me like that!
        (Get back motherfucker! You don’t know me like that!)”

        Liked by 2 people

        • Perfect. I’ve been avoiding it whenever possible. I have one friend on there fighting breast cancer and posting about her experiences, kind of wish she wouldn’t, but I feel obligated to acknowledge her journey and other than that I look for pics of the grandkids.

          Like

        • They should have an option to tag posts as political and then to also filter those out.

          Liked by 1 person

  8. Hi Michi, hope you’re doing well. I was so sad to hear about Sue.

    Liked by 1 person

    • I don’t know if you saw, but I sent her flowers on behalf of ATiM.

      Like

      • No I didn’t jnc, that was so thoughtful! She was a beautiful person and one of the best at the Plumline! I’ll never forget our cheer leading personas and the way we boycotted Greg that time.

        Like

        • One of my 7YO granddaughters is running for president of two second grade classes.

          Her platform: I like all of you. I’m funny. And I will like you even if you don’t vote for me.

          In the same 2 classes of the second grade, there was a mock election, which came after the two advanced classes did their own reading of the candidates’ platforms on ite internet, She voted for Gary Johnson, because he was the only one who had climbed Mt. Everest. Her sister voted for HRC because their mother likes HRC.

          Addendum: After she said that, I told the twins that I had voted for GJ in the real election. Quite spontaneously, the girls mused then about how only Clinton and Trump were on TV, which wasn’t fair to GJ.

          Amazing how much they notice, even if the thought process is not yet adult.

          Liked by 2 people

        • That is a great story Mark!

          Like

  9. Haha, Walter just rented two movies for tonight so I guess we’re not watching the results……………fine by me. I’ll check in here later though in case there’s any verbal action going on!

    Like

  10. I was just talking to a friend of mine who was a Texas Ranger and now works for Treasury and he said and I quote….”Hillary is a criminal and should be in jail”…..

    Like

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