Morning Report: Mortgage credit eased in October 11/7/16

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 25109.8 30.0
Eurostoxx Index 333.4 4.0
Oil (WTI) 44.5 0.5
US dollar index 88.0 0.4
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.82%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.61

Stocks are higher this morning after the FBI absolved Hillary Clinton of her email woes. Bonds and MBS are down.

Tomorrow we will go to the polls to vote in our fearless leader. Here is a cheat sheet for how markets should react based on the consensus of strategists. Punch line: Trump is negative for stocks, and positive for bonds. Hillary is the opposite. The effect will be only short-term as well. That said, IMO the black swan event is a D sweep.

Meanwhile, the fast money is hiding in gold.

Consumer spending increased in October, according to Gallup. A poll of consumers indicated that they spent on average $93 a day in October from $91 in September.

Credit eased somewhat in October, according to the MBA’s Mortgage Credit Availability Index. The jumbo end of the market drove the increase. Since the depths of the real estate bust, mortgage credit has increased tremendously, however compared to the bubble days it is extremely tight.

The labor market improved in October, according to the Labor Market Conditions Index. It rose to 0.7 from -0.2 in September. The LMCI is a composite index of various leading and lagging labor market indices, so it shouldn’t have much of an effect on markets.

55+ housing had a strong 3rd quarter, according to the NAHB.

Realtors have a huge influence of a borrower’s lender decision, according to a new survey out of Freddie Mac. The biggest factors are ease of doing business, reputation and the strength of their relationship with the realtor. From the article: “Eighty-four percent of real estate professionals have a select group of lenders to which they generally refer their clients. Of these, 73 percent have 1-3 lenders in their network and 24 percent work with 4-6 lenders. More than three-quarters (76 percent) say their clients always or often use their recommended lender referrals. This figure climbs to 87 percent among those who sell more than 20 properties per year.”

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