Morning Report: Fed week 7/25/16

Vital Statistics:

Last Change
S&P Futures 2167.0 -0.3
Eurostoxx Index 341.8 2.0
Oil (WTI) 43.5 -0.7
US dollar index 88.1 0.2
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 1.57%
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 103.3
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 104.2
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 3.53

Stocks are flattish this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are flat as well.

The big event this week will be the FOMC meeting on Tuesday and Wednesday. The Fed will probably stand pat, however it will be interesting to see how Brexit is treated. The markets have become much more sanguine about the event and the Fed Funds futures have reacted accordingly.

The other thing to watch with the Fed is their stance on QE, and re-investing maturing proceeds back into the market. The Fed’s buying has supported the mortgage market and their exit would cause mortgage rates to rise at the margin.

The Democratic National Convention opens today after a WikiLeaks document dump over the weekend. It shows the Clinton campaign coordinated with the DNC (which is supposed to be neutral) to undermine Bernie Sanders’ campaign. It also showed how much the media gets its marching orders straight from the Democratic Party. Debbie Wasserstein-Schultz resigned from her position as head of the DNC and immediately joined the Clinton campaign. Protesters are gathering in 100 degree heat in the City of Brotherly Love.

22 Responses

  1. Frist!

    “The Democratic National Convention opens today after a WikiLeaks document dump over the weekend. It shows the Clinton campaign coordinated with the DNC (which is supposed to be neutral) to undermine Bernie Sanders’ campaign.”

    I’m shocked and appalled. It totally wasn’t obvious to anyone with half-a-brain that this was happening.

    The real take away from this is that politicians are old and out-of-touch and don’t understand that email leaks happen constantly, and you don’t put anything in an email that you don’t want to become public knowledge, especially if you are a public figure or a person of interest or in a position of power where anyone else might find what you say in an “unguarded” email (which, if you’re smart and in touch with reality, you would never do). I’m sure the RNC has plenty of similar stuff, especially given the Donald Trump nomination, but still . . . the Democrats and liberals are always positioning themselves as the “smart” ones, the folks who understand modern reality and technology and think and embrace science, yet demonstrate here they don’t understand the reality of email.

    Anyone with even a vague understanding of email and security understand that email is inherently insecure, and subject to all sorts of well-established attacks. It’s vulnerable at dozens of points. You can close some of those up with PGP or some variation thereof, but sending encrypted emails is a pain in the ass and most folks don’t do it, because the inconvenience doesn’t seem worth it just so long as their emails aren’t actively being published at the moment.


  2. I’m also astonished at the number of people declaring the RNC convention disaster, post-convention, because a lot of prominent establishment Republicans boycotted it, basically, and for reasons they mostly read into body language and presentation that are a lot harder to see if you watch it without the enlightened media’s “interpretation”.

    Before the convention, it was going to be violent. There were going to be shootouts. Donald Trump’s thugs were going to bludgeon protestors to death, motorcycle gangs were going to shoot it out with minorities, there were going to be riots, fires, people were going to die . . . mostly because of the violence and bigotry and fear of Trump’s supporters. The reality is Trump turned in a pretty conventional convention without a lot of the big names in the GOP establishment.

    Does anyone learn a lesson based on the inaccuracy of their dire predictions? I predict they do not. They will continue to predict a Trump presidency would usher in the end of the world, despite the fact all their predictions about the RNC convention were entirely wrong.

    Memo obvious went out to tell the American people about Trump’s “dark” vision of America:

    I haven’t heard the whole thing, but there was plenty of “America is awesome” in there, “Make America great again”, bringing back American jobs, protecting Western civilization from terrorism. These things are “dark”.

    Another observation is what feels to me like a sudden conversion of the left and in the press about the state of the world. While agree that things are not nearly so dire as Trump may suggest, when one looks at the actual numbers and statistical trends, I’ve been arguing that for years. Where you almost never see the position that things aren’t all that bad is in the press. I’ve had liberals on PL and elsewhere accuse me of being brainwashed or “buying into the lie” that things are improving on almost all fronts numerous times. Now that Donald Trump is effectively agreeing with them, varying only on the particulars, he’s a cynical liar and things really aren’t all that bad.

    Although the press still hasn’t been able to look at violent crime stats without lots of qualifiers that still make it horrible in some way, just primarily the fault of white conservatives and gun owners.

    Liked by 1 person

  3. During a Secretary of State presser, a reporter gets busted for hunting Pokemon’s:

    [audio src="" /]

    That’s our press core!

    BTW, I got imagine one of the reasons the left didn’t get the riots and violence they were pushing for at the RNC convention was because which you want real violence, you’ve got to depend on spoiled, upper-middle class millennials . . . and they were all busy playing Pokemon Go during the RNC convention. That’s my theory.


  4. NoVA, from the AC piece you linked over at PL this is a good observation:

    “I was speaking with a friend the other night, and I made the point that the meta-narrative of the 2016 election is learned helplessness as a political value. We’re no longer a country that believes in human agency, and as a formerly poor person, I find it incredibly insulting.”


  5. bahahahaa

    Liked by 1 person

  6. Our national descent into incoherent idiocy continues apace:

    Cities interested in hosting future NCAA championships are being asked to specifically outline how they will protect participants and spectators from discrimination.

    These potential future bidding cities must complete a questionnaire from the NCAA by Aug. 12 detailing any local anti-discrimination laws, provisions for refusal of services and other facility-specific information. Currently awarded host sites will have a separate deadline, which will be determined later, to submit this same information.

    The questionnaire follows the Board of Governors’ April adoption of a new requirement for sites hosting or bidding on NCAA events in all divisions. These hosts must demonstrate how they will provide an environment that is safe, healthy and free of discrimination and also safeguards the dignity of everyone involved in the event.

    The following was particularly indicative of the dishonest, fantasy-land worldview of these people.

    The requirement follows the recent actions of legislatures in several states, which have passed laws allowing businesses or government to refuse to provide services to some people based on their sexual orientation or gender identity.


    • The actual questionnaire is absurd. It’s as if they gave almost no thought at all to the actual substance of the questions. I think it demonstrates that this is nothing but an exercise in virtue signalling:

      Click to access NON-DISCRIMINATION_QUESTIONNAIRE_20160722.pdf

      2) Has your city, county/parish, and/or state passed anti-discrimination laws that are applicable to all persons?

      What does this even mean, “applicable to all persons”? Does it mean a law that protects “all persons” from any kind of discrimination whatsoever (which would be impossible)? Or does it mean a law that “all persons” must follow (which is a constitutional necessity for all laws)?

      5) Does your city, county/parish and/or state have provisions that allow for refusal of accommodations or service to any person?

      First of all, one doesn’t need “provisions” to “allow” for refusal of accommodations or service. That “allowance” happens naturally in the absence of laws. Second, of course state law “allows” for people to be refused accommodation or service for all kinds of reasons, most notably and obviously a refusal to pay for it.

      6) If the Event is planned to be held on institutional/campus property, does your institution have provisions that interfere with any person’s choice of bathroom or locker room?

      Unless all bathrooms and locker rooms are open to anyone at all times (which they are not at almost any university in the US), then the answer to this must be “yes”.

      7) If the Event is planned to be held on institutional/campus property, does your institution have provisions that allow for refusal of accommodation or service to any person?

      Of course. Every university in the entire nation has a process, called an “admissions process”, that is designed to pick and choose which people will be provided accommodations and services and which people will be refused such.

      Who can take these people seriously?


      • I will never understand how letting drag queens use the women’s john became a cause celebre for the left..


        • the whole point of being a leftist is pretended to stick it to the man. and when the larger cultural has pretty much accepted what you thought was edgy and fringe, you have to push the envelope.


        • I don’t understand how it became such a huge issue, for anybody, period. I think it has something to do with Facebook. All the memes.


      • “Second, of course state law “allows” for people to be refused accommodation or service for all kinds of reasons, most notably and obviously a refusal to pay for it.”

        I think you just might have gotten to the nut of it. I.e., where all this accommodation stuff is drifting. I feel like a Universal Basic Income is going to get worked into it at some point.


  7. Wonder if the Democratic convention will be what the Republican convention was supposed to be.


    • Don’t they have some Pokemon to catch? And who are these people? Paid agitators, Trump supporters, or BernieBros who want the schadenfreude of a Hillary defeat? Seems suspicious.


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