Morning Report: Mortgage banking revenues fall at JP Morgan 1/14/16

Markets are up this morning after yesterday’s bloodbath. Bonds and MBS are up.

Initial Jobless Claims ticked up to 284k last week. Import prices fell 1.2% as the dollar rallied, and consumer comfort ticked up a tiny bit last week.

JP Morgan reported good numbers this morning. Mortgage Banking net income fell 21% as revenues fell 10%.

The bursting of the China bubble is going to dominate the markets for the foreseeable future. This will be an epic battle of Mr. Market versus Big Communist Government. With debt at 282% of GDP, China’s economy is more fragile than it appears. This is another reason why long term interest rates are probably not headed much higher for the foreseeable future.

Note that the Chinese stock market is dominated by retail investors, not institutions. This makes their market more volatile. They are pouring money into Chinese government debt (probably a good call), the dollar (another good call) and gold.

Note that in the President’s State of the Union address, housing was basically ignored. The country has an acute shortage of affordable housing, and housing starts are still mired well below historical averages. Getting housing back on track is the difference between 2% GDP and 3% GDP. Unfortunately, the only mention political candidates have regarding housing is that Wall Street is evil, the banks are too big, and there needs to be more government control. Which is most definitely not the way to increase credit or confidence.

20 Responses

  1. Frist!

    Bwahahahaha, Kevin Willis!

    Why doesn’t pasting the link work for me??


  2. What a moronic answer.

    I’m guessing she never gets really specific questions like this.


    • McWing:

      What a moronic answer.

      Pelosi is a prime example of the fact that, as long as you have a D next to your name and are on the “correct” side of an issue, you can say the most inane, senseless things without injuring your political career. The media will leave you alone.


  3. It may be time to start watching the debates. Reading the coverage from last night, I think Trump has a real shot at going all the way now.


    • jnc:

      Reading the coverage from last night, I think Trump has a real shot at going all the way now.

      I haven’t really read anything. What do you think changed last night?


      • His answers to Cruz on New York and also to the moderator about happily wearing the mantle of anger.

        I.e., he’s getting better at this as he goes along.


    • I paid no attention to the coverage last night, but I’ve been saying that I think Trump has it in him to win the nomination if he sticks with it, and possibly the presidency, running against either Sanders or Clinton. I don’t think it’s guaranteed, nor do I believe it would be anything but a close election (in terms of popular vote, at least) but I think Trump could take it.

      Folks on the left side of the aisle want to blame the Tea Party or the GOP establishment or Fox News or whatever for Trump, but I see the Trump movement as almost wholly reactionary to the left’s advances on issues such as gay marriage (and the mechanism), the response to the idea that a caterer might not want to cater a gay wedding, the unwillingness to ID Islamic terrorists and Islamists, a response to concerns about Syrian and Muslim integration that doesn’t seek to deconstruct such concerns logically, but rather make the people that have them horrible people for even daring to worry about such a thing. Trump is the loudest, most unapologetic response to the left (especially on issues such as immigration and Islamic terrorism) . . . and I think that resonates will folks who feel their concerns over Syrian refugees or gay marriage are not treated at all seriously, but just condemned. Also, the new, micro-agressive, repeal-the-first-amendment crop of college liberals probably contributes, too.

      That, and he doesn’t take shit from people. I gotta admit, I like a guy who just doesn’t take shit.


      • KW:

        but I see the Trump movement as almost wholly reactionary to the left’s advances on issues such as gay marriage (and the mechanism), the response to the idea that a caterer might not want to cater a gay wedding…

        You may be right, but I am not at all sure that, at least on these issues, supporting Trump is a rational reaction. I don’t know what Trump thinks about gay marriage itself, but I would bet almost anything that he has no coherent, principled view about the mechanism by which it was foisted on the nation. If he has spent even 10 minutes thinking about the constitutional issues I would be surprised. (I wonder if he has ever even read the document.) And frankly the legal bullying that is exemplified by these efforts to punish politically incorrect views on gay marriage are, I fear, precisely the kinds of tactics that would appeal to a President Trump, even if only with regard to other issues.

        This is why I do not look forward to a Trump/Clinton general election. One has no constitutional philosophy at all and the other has a highly destructive one. Great choice.


      • @scottc1: “but I am not at all sure that … supporting Trump is a rational reaction”

        Well, no, but my point being he is (and the Tea Party) is as much of a product of the response of the general population on the left to the concerns of such people, which is to call them stupid and on the wrong side of history and so on, and treat them like their concerns are stupid or deranged or racist.

        It’s not that Trump is a great policy alternative, it’s that he spits in the face of the folks who have been spitting on right wingers, those bitter clingers to guns and God, and trying to turn their concerns and issues into irrational mental problems that are easily dismissed. Given a chance to support a guy that flips them the bird, a lot of people do it, I think, even though he’s not necessarily going to govern as a conservative, or particularly well at all.


  4. Charlie Rose interviews Obama hagiographer with such hard-hitting questions like: “How smart is he? Is he one of our brightest presidents?”

    Charlie Rose MP3 File …

    “A keen analytical intelligence . . . he speaks in these wonderful paragraphs . . . I think there is very little he doesn’t understand . . . ”



  5. I find it delicious that people are arbitraging the free bernie sanders bumper sticker market on Ebay…


  6. Observation:

    For two 2015 movies that picked up franchises started in the 1970’s, Mad Max: Fury Road succeeded in every way that Star Wars: The Force Awakens failed.


  7. Like

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