Markets are flat this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.
The NFIB Small Business Optimism Index rose from 94.8 to 95.2 last month. We see big positive numbers on plans to increase employment and capital expenditures. Earnings trends are down, however. Note that confidence is still depressed however.
Job openings continue remain at 16 year highs, according to the JOLTs jobs report.
The IBD / TIPP economic optimism index inched up as well last month
Junk bond spreads are widening as troubles continue in the energy patch. According to one prognosticator, the current risk premium for high yield debt is implying a 44% chance of a recession next year. Note the Fed seemed to be pretty sanguine about HY in the FOMC minutes.
China’s economic slowdown is having repercussions all over the global economy. The US is probably the most insulated, but it is wreaking havoc in South America and Asia.
There were 33,000 completed foreclosures in November, down from 41,000 last year, according to CoreLogic. The foreclosure rate of 1.2% is back to late 2007 levels.
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