Morning Report: Lennar beats projections 12/18/15

Markets are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small.

Homebuilder Lennar reported better than expected earnings this morning with average sales prices up 6%, a decrease in gross margins and an increase in new orders of 10%. CEO Stuart Miller sees a “slow and steady” housing market improvement. He said the Fed rate hike was a sign of confidence in the economy.

 

Rob Chrisman discussed how TRID is impacting the non-agency markets. quotes one lender: “I see in your commentaries lots of feedback about TRID. Something else is happening and it appears, absent some quick changes in philosophy, the effect could be both a complete seizure of non-agency lending and possibly some firm’s very existence could be put in jeopardy. My firm has had 100% of the jumbo loans that we’ve sent for delivery rejected by our buyers. Yes – 100% – and we’re talking nearly 50 loans so far. Why? Every one had a TRID violation. Does that mean my firm screwed up and is alone on this? No. Two of the firms we sell to say they have purchased ZERO loans so far in December. ZERO. Why? Same reason. None of them were TRID compliant. The TRID rule is so severe, and so open for interpretation, and because the buyers are taking a zero defect approach – it is near impossible to manufacture a perfect loan from a TRID perspective. It’s clear to anyone in our business what could happen next. If I were a warehouse lender – I’d immediately cease funding non-agency loans. Same goes for any correspondent lender who doesn’t want a giant pipeline of unsaleable production. We’re large enough to be able to fund our unsaleable pipeline with cash. But many firms are not. What happens to a firm that has $5 million of cash on hand when its warehouse lender asks them to buy $6 million of jumbos (literally only 5 to 8 loans) off of the line? Game, set, match. Because TRID only affected new applications after 10/3 – the fundings are now only starting to be affected. This crisis is about to get real…”

Of course the reaction from the CFPB lawyers will undoubtedly be that these stooges in the mortgage banking industry just can’t get their act together.  And they better start expanding credit in our targeted areas, or else!

The latest CoreLogic Market Pulse is out: They expect home prices to reach their previous peaks in mid 2017. Note that the FHFA House Price Index (which covers a subset of homes) is pretty much already there.

Fannie Mae reports that lenders are easing credit standards in their latest mortgage lender sentiment survey. They hope that easier credit will help mitigate the drop in home affordability.

Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

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