Morning Report: The Fed takes down its rate forecast 12/17/15

Posted on December 17, 2015 by Brent Nyitray

Stocks are lower this morning, reversing the post FOMC rally. Bonds and MBS are up.

As expected, the Fed rose the Fed Funds target rate by 25 basis points. The statement generally focused on how the economy has improved. The biggest surprise in the statement and the projection materials was the forecast for rates going forward. The Fed lowered their expected Fed Funds range going forward. You can see the September versus December dot graphs below:

In the projection materials, they took up their forecast for 2016 GDP up a hair and took down their estimate for 2016 unemployment by a tick.

In response to the rate hike, banks hiked their prime rate to 3.5% from 3.25%. A lot of consumer debt, especially credit cards, are tied to the prime rate, which means consumers will feel the pinch.

The Philthy Fed Manufacturing Index fell to-5.9 from 1.9. while initial jobless claims fell from 282,000 to 271,000.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to 40.9 from 40.1.

The Index of Leading Economic indicators fell from 0.6% to 0.4%.

The nail that sticks up gets hammered down.

The FHFA is taking more steps to push lenders to provide financing to more multi-fam properties.

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Auf wiedersehen

Posted on December 17, 2015 by novahockey

Fröhliche Weihnachten.

Ich fahre im morgan nach Deutschland.

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