Morning Report: Competition for Zillow’s Z-estimate 12/10/15

Markets are rebounding this morning after several days of losses. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Initial Jobless Claims rose 13k to 282,000 last week. The story remains the same: companies are reluctant to let go of employees.

Import prices fell 0.4% in November and are down 9.4% year over year. Blame low commodity prices. Note that some strategists are starting to say the downside in oil is limited at these prices.

The Bloomberg Consumer Comfort Index rose to 40.1 from 39.6 the prior week.

Everyone knows to treat Zillow’s Z-estimates with a grain of salt. Pre-crisis, they generally overstated property values and post-crisis, they have generally been low. Their median error rate is something like 8% (which is calculated by measuring the difference between the modeled value of a house and what it actually sells for). Now Redfin is rolling out their own model, which they claim has an error rate closer to 2%.

Rental prices in Manhattan have risen so much that potential renters are balking at the asking prices. Rental vacancies are at the highest level since 2006. In November, the median monthly rent in Manhattan rose to $3661, up 4% YOY.

17 Responses

  1. Frist!

    … and I’m unstoppable!

    Like

  2. Southpark apparently channels the Obama administration:

    ““we are at war, but the only way to win this war is to be as understanding, non-biased, and politically correct as possible””

    http://www.salon.com/2015/12/10/always_brash_south_park_gets_brave_from_kids_with_guns_to_the_p_c_principal_this_was_their_most_compelling_and_self_aware_season/

    Like

  3. I’m not sure Salon entirely gets it, but this season of South Park has, indeed, been incredibly awesome. I love those guys.

    Like

  4. Zillow estimates tend to be fairly accurate but when they are wrong, they are really, really wrong.

    Like

    • Know your tropes for exploiting terrorism:

      http://thefederalist.com/2015/12/10/know-your-tropes-for-exploiting-terrorism/

      You see how it all fits together. If we can’t admit to the real motive of Islamic terrorists or address their actual strategic goals, we need to invent new motives and goals and use these polite fictions to dictate what actions are acceptable and unacceptable as a response. And if we’re going to do that, we might as well invent motives and responses that allow us to remain comfortably in the rut of our established domestic political routine.

      In declaring that No True Muslim is inspired by the Religion of Peace to engage in terrorism, which has Nothing to Do with Islam, we invite ourselves to engage in Bin Laden Syndrome by Proxy, because otherwise we might be tempted to do Exactly What ISIS Wants. We had better continue along undisturbed in our pre-existing routine, Or the Terrorists Win.

      Like

  5. Interesting — Redfin came in at 41k higher than the appraisal i just had a month ago (refi). i think redfin is a tad high. but i also think the appraiser was a tad low. but it wasn’t so low that it skunked the deal.

    Redfin – 721
    Appraiser – 680
    Zillow — 600. and that’s not even blogging true.

    i really think it’s 700

    Like

  6. The American workforce is expected to shrink by the equivalent of about 2 million full-time workers in 2025 compared to its size had the ACA not been passed, the nonpartisan Congressional Budget Office said in a report Monday (Dec. 7), while the labor force’s total pay will be nearly 1 percent less than it would have been without the law. The CBO predicts people will opt to work fewer hours and make less money in order to avoid higher taxes and increase their subsidies, a sister argument to the claim that employers will cut workers’ hours to dodge the requirement to offer them adequate insurance.

    https://www.cbo.gov/publication/51065

    Like

  7. I’m told that having the law is better than the previous status quo.

    Like

  8. That’s an improvement. I was told to STFU

    Like

  9. I’m talking about here, at ATiM, not at PL. Sadly it did not get me a death wish from cao (who I’m told is a tender and considerate lover), though Quarterback and Scott (I think) did receive them for denigrating it.

    Like

  10. Zillow: $340,111
    Redfin: $350,809

    I like that Redfin shows comparable sales. I now know exactly how much my neighbor just paid for his.

    Like

  11. “The American workforce is expected to shrink by the equivalent of about 2 million full-time workers in 2025 compared to its size had the ACA not been passed”

    We need more H-1Bs.

    Like

  12. This is awesome:

    “Attacks on Trump just make his supporters like him more

    To the amazement of a GOP media consultant, a focus group of Trump supporters hugged the candidate tighter after hearing negative information about him, saying they trust him — not the media or the GOP.

    By David Weigel”

    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/attacking-trump-just-makes-these-voters-like-him-more/2015/12/10/2de9edf8-9f44-11e5-a3c5-c77f2cc5a43c_story.html?hpid=hp_hp-top-table-main_trumpsupporters-135pm%3Ahomepage%2Fstory

    Like

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