Morning Report: Personal Income and Personal Spending numbers disappoint 10/30/15

Markets are higher this morning in spite of some disappointing spending and income numbers. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Personal Income rose 0.1% in September and personal spending rose 0.1% as well. Both numbers were below the 0.2% Street estimates. The core personal consumption expenditure index rose 0.1% in September and is up 1.3% year-over-year. The savings rate increased to 4.8% from 4.7%, a sign that consumers are still de-leveraging. Economic optimists are going to point to the turmoil in the financial markets as the reason for the weak numbers. Economic pessimists are worried about entering another recession.

The employment cost index rose 0.6% in the third quarter, in line with expectations. This is an uptick from the June quarter, which was the lowest reading since 1982. On an annual basis, wages and salaries increased 2%. while benefit costs increased 1.8%. The labor market is tight for skilled labor, especially construction.

Pending Home Sales fell 2.3% in September, according to the NAR. Blame low inventory, especially at the lower price points.

The Chicago Purchasing Managers index jumped in October. Production and new orders drove the increase, which is a positive sign for the economy.

Consumer sentiment dipped in October, according the University of Michigan survey.

Congress passed a bipartisan 2 year deal that raises the debt ceiling and eliminates the sequester. This takes any government shutdown worries off the table.

As we approach Halloween weekend, Bankrate takes a look at the states with the highest zombie foreclosures… Needless to say, they are concentrated in the Northeast and the rust belt.

Stock certificates from the tech stocks of yesteryear, inlcuding Computing Tabulating Recording Company (IBM) and The Haloid Company (Xerox).

38 Responses

  1. “Senior Citizens Are Going to Hate Ted Cruz’s Tax Plan

    —By Kevin Drum
    Thu Oct. 29, 2015 6:53 PM EDT”

    I consider this a point in it’s favor.


  2. Yeah, it’s a stumper why this angel’s still single.

    She animatedly tells a story about a recent Tinder rendezvous: “One time, I agreed to meet with this guy at 8 or 9 at night. Before we met, I said to him, ‘This is the work I do, I know the chief of police … so, don’t try and get creepy; I know all my rights.’ And five minutes later, he was like, ‘Actually, I’m really not OK with how you just assume I’m a bad guy. And I get very bad vibes from that, so we shouldn’t hang out anymore.’”
    “I was in a rage. He was a total fuckboy about consent,” she said.

    Uh Hunh, his problem with her was about consent. She, er, nailed it.


    There was one time, one guy, knowing what I did and what I talked about, he made consent part of foreplay,” she reacalls. “You know, very intentionally asking, ‘Is this okay? Is this okay?’ It was cute. It was great.”

    I can safely say I wouldn’t fuck her with your dick.


  3. I will go out on a limb and suggest that in 20 years this chick will have about 50 cats…


  4. Remember the rule: Don’t stick it in the crazy


  5. Like

  6. @mcwing: “And five minutes later, he was like, ‘Actually, I’m really not OK with how you just assume I’m a bad guy. And I get very bad vibes from that, so we shouldn’t hang out anymore.’”
    “I was in a rage. He was a total fuckboy about consent,” she said.”

    This is actually a great, emotionally protective strategy. There’s a built in excuse as to (a) why her relationships never work out and (b) why it can’t possibly be because she is extraordinarily unpleasant for guys to be around. It will always be because men just aren’t enlightened enough to understand how important consent is, so they are all pretty much wanna-be rapists, and anyone who doesn’t like listening about how awful men are or how horrible her former almost-boyfriends were or about the natural and unavoidable defects of masculinity . . . it’s because they just aren’t enlightened.

    “I can safely say I wouldn’t fuck her with your dick.”

    Misogynist! Woman-hater!


    • Misogynist! Woman-hater!

      I am in a Monday night men’s group that has been together since 1991. One of our original members is now in a nursing home suffering from ALS, Lou Gherig’s disease. We have done several Monday nights out there, including his first night, when we moved him in.

      On that first night, a woman wheeled herself across the hall to introduce herself to her new neighbor. She was a paraplegic as a result of an auto collision, she told us, which was caused by her drunk boyfriend, who died in the wreck. Our friend introduced himself and explained that he had ALS and that we were his Monday night mens’ group, and that he would be delighted to find another time to visit with her, as our time together was limited. She replied that she would like to visit with us, because she had a lot to tell us about men.


      I told her I was certain that we would all feel enlightened, but that our time with our dying friend was valuable to us, as well, and I offered to help her by pushing her chair back to her room.

      She has stayed away from our friend, to his satisfaction, and from us, when we appear on Monday nights to wheel him around, or to take him out for dinner in the van with the incredible lift mechanism.

      There are some Prime Examples out there.


  7. I’ll admit it, people who are concerned with unequal outcomes between consenting adults interest me.

    One supposed problem (according to those who see problems when transactions between consenting adults result in unequal outcomes


  8. The usual suspects are surprisingly quiet after obama decided to put boots on the ground in Syria… Shouldn’t Cindy Sheehan be doing a jamba juice hunger strike or something with MSNBC giving us hourly updates?

    Know what I don’t get? The middle east should be about as strategically interesting as Botswana. We are self-sufficient energy wise, and Iran is about to dump another million barrels of oil per day on the market. The electric car is only going to get better and cheaper, which is going to devalue the stuff even further. It isn’t 1974 anymore.

    So why the fuck are we getting even more involved in the middle east?


    • So why the fuck are we getting even more involved in the middle east?


      An interesting homemade video linked below:


    • Brent:

      Know what I don’t get? The middle east should be about as strategically interesting as Botswana.

      Except that we already have a long history of being involved in the Middle East that we don’t have in Botswana. The decreasing value of oil doesn’t make that history, nor the on-going effects of that history, go away. It is not obvious to me that if we simply decided to have nothing to do with any nation in the Middle East, those nations would reciprocate. I am also not sure that we could ever decide to have nothing to do with the Middle East without setting Israel adrift to fend for itself.

      Is it even possible to be just a little involved in the Middle East?


  9. We’re now Europe’s bitch, er, army.


  10. Guess the War on Poverty was a complete failure:

    “Bernie Sanders’s claim that more people live in poverty ‘than almost any time’ in U.S. history”


    • jnc:

      “Bernie Sanders’s claim that more people live in poverty ‘than almost any time’ in U.S. history”

      Reminds me of Ford’s “There is no Soviet domination of Eastern Europe.” A candidate entirely divorced from reality.


  11. Jnc4p, if I remember correctly you lobby on the Hill. As such you’re around Powerful People. Thinking about the Hillary emails released so far there is an awful lot of ass kissing and fawning over her. Is that usual for elected politicians? Are they really that shallow and vein that it works?


  12. Do you guys think that the presence of Trump in 2016 will encourage a Michael Moore or Jon Stewart to run in 2024?


  13. Think Tom Steyer and Rob Reiner.


  14. @Scottc1: ““Bernie Sanders’s claim that more people live in poverty ‘than almost any time’ in U.S. history””

    This is true if you accept the left’s constant moving of the goal posts, and the constant redefinition of poverty. Given that poverty now involves obesity and having NFL Sunday Ticket on your DirectTV . . . and 3 cell phones . . . eh, it just ain’t what it used to be.

    Put another way, the left’s definition of poverty will always remain fluid, so no matter how much wealth is redistributed, and no matter how good the circumstances of people at the lowest ends of the spectrum are, they will still be “in poverty” and that will still be bad, even when poverty becomes defined as only being able to afford sufficient healthcare to live 300 years and having to get by with only one flying car.


  15. We’re also expanding definitions of poverty, or kinds of poverty, so we’ll have people who are “Internet Poor” or “Mobile Communications Poor” or “Graduate School Poor” or what have you. Since poverty really no longer involved serious lack of access to baseline food, education and healthcare, it’s has to be expanded to cover other things that some people have that other people do not.


  16. ” Is that usual for elected politicians? ”

    I think that was directed at me. It’s not unusual, but this level is weird. It’s taken the hand holding to an extreme. And I can’t think of anyone else who relies on staff to that extent .

    but most of that is due to the ridiculous schedules members have. I’ve never heard of (and its possible that i’m ignorant of) someone using email to get an answer to whatever question happens to pop up at any giving moment.


  17. Thanks NoVa. I am assuming that the Politicians are unaware that they are subject to manipulation via their desire for flattery?


  18. that’s a safe assumption.


  19. @markinaustin: “So why the fuck are we getting even more involved in the middle east?”

    Somebody clearly thinks it’s a great idea. Military Industrial complex, maybe? Eisenhower warned us, after all.


  20. @markinaustin: “An interesting homemade video linked below:”

    Interesting the amount of suffering people feel under occupation, although the “occupation” seems much onerous (from the videos) than other forms of occupation, historically. I find it interesting how we judge such things, especially when you put a scale to them. That is, if you have to select how bad something is on a scale from 1 to 10, if it is the worst thing you experience or your most negative emotional experience, then it is a 10 or 11, no matter how much worse things could be.

    On the whole, videos like that make it seem like a bunch of folks trying to live their lives and make a living. Amazing they can’t figure out how to get along reasonably well, but apparently . . . it’s not a skill we’re good at as human beings.


  21. I think Israel is quite capable of handling itself..


    • Brent:

      I think Israel is quite capable of handling itself..

      So exactly how laissez-faire do you think our FP should be with regard to the ME?

      If Iran wants nukes, let ’em have ’em? If ISIS can take over Syria, let’em? If someone attacks Israel, stand aside and watch? Let Iraq go whichever way it might?

      I am not just being rhetorical, here. I definitely have instinctive sympathy for the isolationist viewpoint, but those are real questions that the isolationist view really must address. And given the arc of history I am not at all convinced that US interests overall benefit from US disinterest and dis-involvement in international problems. I am also not sure, given our history, that the depth of our involvement is fully a matter of choice. So when it is said that we shouldn’t involve ourselves in ME problems, I wonder exactly what is envisioned, and how it is expected that the US would be better off for it.


  22. It sounds harsh, but I say let them kill each other over who sticks their ass in the air the right way 5 times a day…


    • Brent:

      It sounds harsh, but I say let them kill each other over who sticks their ass in the air the right way 5 times a day…

      If that was all there was to it, I would totally agree with you. But I just think it is naive to think that ME politics and fighting have no impact on the wider world or US interests in that world.


  23. I don’t see any pressing interest in the ME any more… I don’t think leaving the ME will hurt us with respect to terrorism and it may help. The middle east is more of a headache for India, Europe, and Russia. Let them deal with it.


    • Brent:

      I don’t think leaving the ME will hurt us…

      I am still curious what this actually means in terms of real policy. No boots on the ground? OK, I get that much. No financial aid to any nation? No military aides? No military cooperation or advice to selected nations? No weapons sales to any players? No attempts to alter behavior at all (ie Iran getting nukes)? No embassy staff? How far do you go, and if you are not going all the way out, are you really mitigating the downside of being in?


  24. I’d sell weapons. If Europeans want military action they should do it, or hire the Ruskies. If we’re attacked, think Hiroshima for the host country.


  25. damn skippy. but an ohio-class sub on station and call it day.


    • McWing:

      KW on Houston’s mayoral election:

      And that same kind of affiliation-driven politics is the reason why, in spite of all of Houston’s serious municipal challenges, the topic that is dominating the discussion is a so-called civil-rights ordinance addressing in part the all-important question of public accommodations — read: toilet rules — for transsexuals. Houston may not know how it’s going to balance the books, but it is by-God certain that a fellow who wants to while away some time in the damas’ room at Taco Cabana has a civil right to do so if he’s feeling feminine that day, and that this right simply must be codified in the city’s legal code. (The rule was already thrown out once by the state supreme court on the grounds that it was improperly adopted.) In Houston’s well-heeled and hipsterish Upper Kirby neighborhood this morning, I took a moment to speak with some volunteers for the Human Rights Campaign, a gay-rights group, who were very excited about the great toilet battle to come on Tuesday. I asked them what they thought about Bill King’s pension-reform plans.


      That’s the problem with American politics, that right there.


  26. Agreed. Pensions are underfunded by the billions but Trannies gotta pee, so…


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