Morning Report: Housing Starts top 1.2 million 8/18/15

Stocks are lower this morning after WalMart earnings disappoint. Bonds and MBS are down small

Housing Starts were more or less flat in July at just over 1.2 million. June was revised higher. Multi-fam starts dropped while single family rose. Building Permits fell however from 1.33 million to 1.12 million. Multi-family permits accounted for almost all of the drop. Goldman took up their Q3 GDP tracking estimate from 2.2% to 2.4% on the number.

Speaking of housing, the Home Despot reported better than expected earnings this morning as well. An improving housing market is encouraging people to spend on renovations.

PIMCO expects housing to grow at 10% for the next 2 – 3 years. Household formation is picking up, and we have simply underbuilt for a long time.

23 Responses

  1. Up until 3 in the morning discussing my oldest daughter and her quasi-abusive and almost certainly sociopathic boyfriend who she looooooves and I despise with a black hate that passeth all understanding.

    To all you childless folks out there: you made the right decision. Don’t ever waver. Trust me. IF you do have children, never, ever give them any kind of autonomy ever. You will be sorry.

    I am sleepy.

    Oh, and . . . Frist!

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  2. If you have daughters, do not let them date. Or ever interact with boys. Or use any social networks. I think a convent is probably the best solution.

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  3. How old is your daughter?

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  4. I have heard boys are tougher from 9 – 12 (the gasoline and matches phase) and then girls are tougher.

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  5. My daughter is 17. 18 in December. My youngest daughter is 10 and the teenage years are looming now. Already decided the youngest is not allowed to date. Ever.

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  6. I actually agree with this:

    “If you’re dying to know more, you’re in luck: Klein has written plenty of books about climate change, including This Changes Everything: Capitalism vs. the Climate and The Shock Doctrine: The Rise of Disaster Capitalism, which MSNBC host Rachel Maddow praised as “the only book of the last few years in American publishing that I would describe as a mandatory must-read.””

    Her books make clear that the agenda isn’t about mitigating climate change. It’s about getting rid of capitalism. Climate change is just the “crisis” that’s needed to justify the government involvement. The other great thing about her books is she explicitly makes clear that economic growth would be “reserved” for third world countries with high poverty levels and would be stopped in the developed countries due to the amount of consumption that it generates.

    I cite Klein directly as the real voice of the progressive left on this issue every chance I get.

    Vox also gets into the climate “racism” argument by noting which countries get hit the worse by natural disasters and cites that as why “environmental justice” is needed. Meaning redistribution of wealth from the developed world to the undeveloped world.

    http://www.vox.com/2014/6/3/5772314/the-tragedy-of-climate-politics-in-one-map

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  7. Bjørn Lomborg, director of the Copenhagen Consensus Center, told me that all of the carbon-reduction targets advocated by the U.N. or the European Union would result in imperceptible differences in temperature, at enormous cost. “We would be far better off and richer if we did simple things like painting roofs in hot climates white and investing in new technologies that could help us adapt to any change that is coming,”

    This. The solutions to a slightly warming planet are to (a) do simple things to mitigate the heat issue and improve pollution (b) be thankful its getting warmer and not colder, because there’s not much question that colder leads to higher mortality rates AND poorer crop yields (alarmist’s insistence that hotter weather leads to droughts and floods that will lead to starvation and cannibalism in short order), (c) don’t trade carbon credits or offsets to the worst offenders in the developing world, provide modest incentives to create their newer energy infrastructures in ways that are more environmentally friendly.

    Even if the solution to “global warming” was to cut American consumption of energy and meat and everything else by 50%-75%, it’s absurd to pursue that solution. It will not happen. Politicians will be tarred and feathered if they are seen as making it happen. Etc.

    “Cimate racism” . . . Racism! Is there anything it doesn’t do?

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    • KW:

      Politicians will be tarred and feathered if they are seen as making it happen. Etc.

      The left can just get the Supreme Court to declare that it is mandated by the constitution, as they tend to do for every other policy preference they have.

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  8. Also, I can’t shake the feeling that the way that “climate change” is responsible for every new hurricane and drought or flood is the same way the angry gods used to be responsible for such thing, and required virgin sacrifices to appease them. I suppose we should be glad the consensus hasn’t gotten around to advocating virgin sacrifice. Yet.

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  9. I think the electric car is simply a better mousetrap, and that is the game changer, climate-wise.

    But the last thing progressives want to hear is “Relax, the market is solving it as we speak.”

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    • Brent:

      But the last thing progressives want to hear is “Relax, the market is solving it as we speak.”

      That is because, as jnc noted, the progressives are not really interested in solving the problem of AGW. The are interested in solving the “problem” of capitalism, using AGW as a convenient excuse.

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  10. The name for these people is watermelon: green on the outside, red on the inside…

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  11. i can’t believe that socialism is trendy.

    http://www.weeklystandard.com/Content/Public/Articles/000/000/015/791jsebl.asp

    Liberalism had been running wild in the nation since the Great Depression. At the end of the Carter administration we had it cornered in one of its dreadful low-income housing projects or smelly public parks or some such place, and we held the Taser gun in our hand, pointed it at the beast’s swollen gut, and didn’t pull the trigger. Liberalism wasn’t zapped and rolled away on a gurney and confined somewhere until it expired from natural causes such as natural law or natural rights.

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  12. NoVA, what’s this about you and boating?

    Edit: I highly recommend this to start with before purchasing.

    http://carefreeboats.com/

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  13. Interesting take on Trump’s immigration plan:

    “There’s an old saying that in a negotiation, he who cares least wins.”

    http://www.vox.com/2015/8/18/9171919/donald-trump-immigration-plan

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  14. @jnc4p: “I read Donald Trump’s immigration plan, and it’s even crueler than I expected”

    Interesting. When liberals want to do things to increase the cost of energy, gas, transportation, food, start a business, etc, I feel there aren’t a lot of Vox articles on the cruelty of such things.

    Ultimately, I think Donald Trump’s immigration plan is nationalistic fantasy. That being said, I’d love to get rid of birthright citizenship. If The Donald is instrumental in advancing that cause, that would be awesome.

    Birth right citizenship should be used as an incentive for legal immigration. So, if you are here legally with a visa of green card, you get birthright citizenship. If you are here illegally, your child does not get birthright citizenship. One has to assume that birthright citizenship is largely non-beneficial for first world countries, given that the only two developed nations that offer birthright citizenship are the US and Canada.

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  15. the only two developed nations that offer birthright citizenship are the US and Canada

    My son was born in London, and I was living there on a work permit. He is not a UK subject..

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  16. JNC — this weekend we visited a development in PW county. further out, more space for roughly the same $$ as my place inside the beltway. planned community with a marina proposed. so just daydreaming “hey, i could have a boat.”

    but i’ll look into the link.

    actually, this location would do it: http://carefreeboats.com/locations/stafford-va/

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  17. It’s much better than having to deal with actually owning the boat, until you want to get to something larger than the 30′ range.

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  18. i think i’d name the small runabout or deck boat “Misappropriation.”

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  19. “Misappropriation”

    Heh.

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