Morning Report: Empire State Manufacturing Report disappoints 8/17/15

Markets are lower after a bad reading on the Empire State Manufacturing Survey. Bonds and MBS are up.

The Empire State Manufacturing Survey hit a 6 year low, as it tumbled from 3.9 to -15. This is generally not a market-moving index and it can be volatile, but given the dearth of things to trade on this morning, this is what people are focusing on.

Homebuilder sentiment rose from 60 to 61 in July, according to the NAHB.

The highlight of the week will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday. Bloomberg has a helpful primer on how to read them.

Oil has dropped below $42 a barrel and is back at 6 year lows. Interestingly, the consumer sentiment indices seem to have decoupled from oil prices. We saw that in the falling University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey last week. Oil’s drop may appear to be a momentum trade, although speccies are still net long.

Meanwhile in politics, Donald Trump remains the Republican headache that won’t go away, and the email crisis remains the Democratic headache that won’t go away. Bill and Obama went golfing over the weekend, so the fix is presumably in. That said, the Administration has thrown the book at every low-level type who mishandled classified info.

9 Responses

  1. Interesting piece on Trump as what an actual “moderate” looks like.


  2. @jnc4p: “On marijuana, the single most popular position was full legalization. On immigration, it was “the immediate roundup and deportation of all undocumented immigrants and an outright moratorium on all immigration until the border is proven secure.”

    Sounds like me! Except for the roundup and deportation of all undocumented immigrants. 😉 While I have zero objection to this, I think the expense of such an operation is going to be out of all proportion to its economic benefit.

    But I kind of like the whole idea of a candidate appealing to both left and righting “extreme” positions, and turning that into a successful populism. I like that Trump didn’t declare he’d support the eventual Republican nominee, and that he won’t sign Norquist’s tax pledge. Might regret it if he became president and then advocated for a box middle-class tax hike, but still . . . I like that he doesn’t want to bow and scrape before self-appointed king makers.


    • KW:

      I like that Trump didn’t declare he’d support the eventual Republican nominee…

      You like the lack of a declaration, or you like the fact that he might not actually support the eventual nominee?

      If it is true that he may not support the eventual nominee, then I am glad he told the truth about it so that he can be judged accordingly. But I don’t at all like the fact that he may not actually support the eventual R nominee. If he is really undecided about whether any of the other people on the stage with him would better represent his goals/values than Hillary/Sanders/Biden, then as far as I am concerned he doesn’t deserve to even be called a Republican, much less be considered for the position of R nominee.


  3. Interesting Ace of Spades Podcast on Friday about Trump and the Republican Party. Worth listening to.


  4. Trump is not gonna run third party. He is a real estate guy, first and foremost.

    The first thing you learn in real estate is that you don’t use your own money. If DT doesn’t get party cash, he isn’t going to spend his own money.

    Supposedly the campaign is pretty parsimonious with ad spending.


  5. Does Trump really need to buy ads right now?


  6. No. if anything, he should invest in staff and GOTV.


  7. @ScottC1: “You like the lack of a declaration, or you like the fact that he might not actually support the eventual nominee?”

    I like the lack of declaration. If it was possible he could win a 3rd party run as an independent, then I’d support his lack of support for the eventual nominee, but I don’t think that. But I like that he basically said: “Nobody puts Baby in the corner!”


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