Morning Report: Bank Earnings and Iran 7/14/15

Stocks are lower this morning after retail sales came in weaker than expected. Bonds and MBS are up.

Looks like we have a deal with Iran. Sanctions are lifted, but snap back if Iran violates any of the terms of the agreement. The immediate effect will to bring another 3 MM barrels of oil per day onto the market. Congress will have a vote on the deal.

Retail sales disappointed in June, with the headline number falling .3% versus expectations of a positive .3%. Ex autos and gas, they fell .2%, versus the .4% expectation. May strong numbers were revised down slightly. There appears to be some seasonal effects going on here (early Memorial Day “borrowed” sales from June) so don’t read too much into this number.

The NFIB Small Business Optimism Survey fell in June to 94.1 from 98.3. Weak sales and the political environment accounted for the decrease. Looks like hiring stopped in June.

Import prices fell .1% in June and are down 10% on a year-over-year basis.

Now that Tsipras has accepted the EU’s terms, he has to sell the idea back at home. Not going to be an easy task, but it will probably pass.

Hillary Clinton gave a speech yesterday on the economy, and it is more or less a grab-bag of assorted liberal ideas: increase the minimum wage, more aggressive enforcement of discrimination laws, paid family leave, free childcare, the usual.. She even went after Uber (who cheekily did a senior citizen promotion that day). It is clear she is feeling the #Bern and is worried about her left flank.

JP Morgan reported this morning that mortgage banking net income fell 20% in the quarter. Not a lot of color on mortgage banking in particular, however they are paying close attention to China (I’ll bet). The stock is up about 1 percent on the open.

Wells also reported this morning. Mortgage banking revenues fell 1% in spite of the fact that originations rose to $62 billion from $47 billion. Well’s market share fell to 13% from 28% three years ago.

11 Responses

  1. #Frist!

    I wonder how going after Uber will work for Hillary. I don’t think millenials will be super happy about that. Uber has it’s issues, but trying to shut down the little guy in favor of the big companies may not play as well in Petaluma as it will in DC. But who knows?


  2. Read Gawker stories on Uber. there’s no middle ground here. either you love it. or it must be crushed. how socialism got trendy again boggles the mind.



    Nice. Obama sides with Putin and Assad. This fucking guy.


    • I think it is a much better deal than I expected AND beats the alternative by a mile. Further, I think the EU, never mind Russia and China, will lift sanctions because of this deal. We should support it because we will be left outside the decision group if we do not, and we are the power to enforce a sanction for a breach by Iran, ultimately. In other words, we have leverage as the leader of the group that we will not have if we renounce it.

      YMMV, Binyamin.


  4. If I were Obama I’d worry, these are the same clowns that were responsible for making Obamacare popular


  5. I think the status quo was perfectly acceptable.


  6. on Iran. there is no reason to lift the sanctions. we’ve rewarded them for what exactly?


    • NoVA, The outlines of the deal were always going to be lifting sanctions in exchange for verifiable and inspected reduction of their nuke activity to power generation. The devil was always in the details and the details are better than what I thought we could get.

      we cannot impose sanctions all by ourselves. I know you understand that.


  7. The more western media and branded products we rain on Iran, the more Westernized they will become. Sanctions are a losing game.


  8. “we cannot impose sanctions all by ourselves. I know you understand that.”

    no. but i would be fine not be party to lifting them.


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