Stocks are down after Greece voted down further austerity. Bonds and MBS are up.
The jobs report last Thursday was okay for the most part. The labor force participation rate hit a new low, however.
The ISM Non-Manufacturing Index came in a little light, but was generally strong. Business Activity accelerated, however that was offset by weakening employment growth. Employment activity in the services sector has been decelerating for months.
The week after the jobs report is usually pretty data-light and this week is no exception. The highlight will be the FOMC minutes on Wednesday.
The immediate fallout of the crisis should be bond (and MBS) bullish. US stocks are down in sympathy with global markets, but there should be almost no exposure here. The ECB will probably take additional measures to boost markets via QE, so that should be stock and bond bullish here.
On to the next crisis, which is the bursting of the Chinese stock and real estate bubbles. China’s government is pulling out all the stops trying to support stock prices (the invisible hand meets the iron fist). In many ways it it reminiscent of the Japanese government in the 1990s, where they tried to artificially support markets through “price keeping operations.” Of course these measures inevitably prevent necessary adjustments from occurring, which is why Japan has stayed in economic stagnation for over a generation.
The Chinese situation has more potential to affect US markets than Greece. Chinese money is behind a lot of the price appreciation in the cities, especially at the high end. Whether it stays or goes will be dependent on what the Chinese government wants.
Filed under: Morning Report |