Morning Report – Bonds could have a bumpy ride this week 6/1/15

Stocks are higher this morning as Europe and Greece work towards a deal. Bonds and MBS are flat.

Personal Income rose 0.4% in April, ahead of the 0.3% estimate, but personal spending was flat as people used income gains to pay down debt. The year-over-year growth rate is the lowest in 5 years.

The core PCE index (the Fed’s preferred measure of inflation) rose 0.1% in April and is up 1.2% year over year. Low inflation remains a persistent thorn in the Fed’s side and will provide a ready excuse to postpone rate normalization.

Construction spending rose 2.2% in April, which came in well above expectations. March was revised upward from -0.6% to +0.5%. These are month-over-month numbers – on a year over year basis, construction is up 4.8%. Residential construction continues to lag.

The ISM Manufacturing Index rose to 52.8 from 51.5 in April. The manufacturing economy continues to perform relatively well.

Greece owes the IMF 300 million this Friday, and as of now they have no way to pay for it. Greece is demanding that the ECB and IMF recognize that Greece has shifted to the left, however so far Europe isn’t budging. Between the Greek saga and the jobs report on Friday, bonds could exhibit some real volatility this week.

11 Responses

  1. It gets better and better. More of this!

    I love it!

    Public Attacks On Victims: When a student accuses a faculty member or another student of sexual misconduct, the only University response consistent with Title IX is contrition, acceptance, and support.

    This makes me orgasmic!

    Prohibited behaviors include weighing, evaluating, questioning, critiquing, deconstructing, or otherwise assaulting the victim’s complaint. This proscription applies to all departments: it is inappropriate to challenge a victim’s factual account or legal assertion through the disciplines of law, philosophy, rhetoric, logic, or physics. Statements of support and belief in the victim’s account remain acceptable — and strongly encouraged — under any discipline.

    I just busted a …

    Professor Kipnes’ columns suggest that it is appropriate in the course of discussing an accusation to report what the target says in response to it. Unless the response is a full acknowledgement of wrongdoing and apology, it is not appropriate. Repeating what the wrongdoer says in response to an allegation re-victimizes the victim. The pretense of “neutrality” or “even-handedness” or “telling both sides” has its roots in privilege. Neutrality is not neutral in any academically meaningful sense.

    Beta male nerds are the dumbest, AmIRight?

    We recognize that these concepts can be difficult to understand for some, particularly those in the physical sciences

    I’ll say it again, everybody loves the strong horse, hence no criticism of the Business or athletic colleges.

    http://popehat.com/2015/05/31/leaked-northwestern-university-email-states-rules-for-title-ix-investigations/

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  2. So I guess since we can’t convince everyone that the planet is on the brink of a carbon-related collapse, the only thing to do is RICO the utilities and the natural resource industries.

    We can’t have studies that disagree with the orthodoxy on global warming. We just can’t.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/the-fossil-fuel-industrys-campaign-to-mislead-the-american-people/2015/05/29/04a2c448-0574-11e5-8bda-c7b4e9a8f7ac_story.html

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  3. Clearly the government would never abuse statutes like RICO or structuring withdrawals to go after non-organized crime targets.

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  4. And you know he is probably scratching his head wondering why people consider democrats to be anti-business…

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    • jnc:

      Another definitive campus rape expose falls apart when re-reported.

      The whole campus rape issue reminds me of the daycare hysteria of the 1980s.

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  5. Brent, I know low inflation “justifies” low rates, but do you really think the Fed wants HIGH inflation, or does it want just a wee bit MORE inflation?

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  6. Mark, I take the Fed at their word that they want inflation at 2%.

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