Morning Report – Jobs report data dump 5/8/15

Stocks are higher this morning after the jobs report. Bonds and MBS are up big. European sovereign debt is rallying hard this morning.

Jobs report data dump:

  • Nonfarm payrolls 223k
  • two month payroll revision -39
  • March payrolls revised to 85k from 126k
  • Unemployment rate 5.4%
  • Average Hourly earnings +.1%
  • Labor Force Participation rate 62.8%

Overall, the report isn’t bad, and it had something for everyone to like. Stocks liked the unemployment rate and the fact that payrolls rebounded in April, while bonds could hang their hat on the weak hourly earnings number.

Wellington Denahan, CEO of mortgage REIT Annaly Capital had some criticism of the Fed and the effects of QE. Money quote: “Since 2009 when the experiment began, global bond markets have increased in value by roughly $17 trillion, or the size of the U.S. economy, while global equity markets have increased in value by a staggering $40 trillion. Yet the American wage earners have gained a relatively paltry $722 billion in comparison during the same period. Or to put it more clearly, for every dollar gained by the American worker, the global equity markets have the gained $55.”  As much as people complain about inequality, almost nobody asks if Fed policy in general, not just QE, is behind the rising inequality as the Fed creates serial bubbles. The left loves to point out that inequality began accelerating in 1979 (in order to blame it all on Reagan), however the dual mandate began right around that time as well, and as such began the mother of all rallies in stocks, bonds, and real estate.

44 Responses

  1. Happy Friday, all!

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  2. You too.

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  3. I missed the transgendered thread. A schoolmate of my son went to an all-girls college and then started transitioning to male. His Linked-In profile says he did get a bachelors degree and is now a music store manager.

    Most transpeople seem to just use hormones nowadays and don’t resort to the lopitov or addadiktomy surgery.

    I do get to go to a Jewish lesbian vegan wedding this summer. At least they are serving booze which puts it above all the Baptist weddings I’ve had to go to over the years.

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    • yello:

      I missed the transgendered thread.

      There seems to be an increasing amount of “trans” legal stories in the news recently. My guess is that, now that the left has all but successfully forced the redefinition of marriage on the nation by judicial fiat, it and its soldiers in the media and legal worlds are moving on to the next target, redefining the concepts of man and woman.

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  4. The British election results are causing Krugman to have a meltdown.

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/08/opinion/paul-krugman-triumph-of-the-unthinking.html?ref=opinion

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  5. Poor Krugman got whacked upside the head with a cowbell by the confidence fairy.

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  6. “yellojkt, on May 8, 2015 at 10:54 am said:

    Not only are the Brits not adding more cowbell, they are burning down the barn.”

    And yet the economy is recovering. Unpossible!

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  7. This looks like it will be good when it comes out.

    ““At Canaan’s Edge” addresses the three years leading up the assassination of Martin Luther King, Jr., a period that offers not the affirming, earlier victories of the movement in securing civil rights legislation or desegregated public facilities, but the increasing conflict between non-violent mass protest and rebellion by any means necessary to secure equal treatment and opportunity.

    The writing room for that miniseries offers a multitude of perspectives from Branch, a long time Baltimore resident, as well as Ta-Nehisi Coates, perhaps our finest essayist on race and also a native of the city, and James McBride, the novelist and screenwriter whose most recent novel, “The Good Lord Bird,” reflecting on the saga John Brown and the employ of violence against American slavery, won the National Book Award. Eric Overmyer, a noted playwright and veteran writer-producer on both “The Wire” and “Treme” rounds out the room.”

    http://davidsimon.com/a-maryland-film-festival-panel-slated/

    Michi – looks like the public event is happening today if you can manage to go check it out.

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  8. David Frum gets it:

    “The Right to Blaspheme

    Dissenting from the tenets of a particular religion is very different than discriminating against a category of persons.
    David Frum ”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2015/05/the-right-to-blaspheme/392654/

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  9. This is going to be a mess:

    “Illinois Supreme Court Rejects Lawmakers’ Pension Overhaul

    By MONICA DAVEY
    MAY 8, 2015

    CHICAGO — The Illinois Supreme Court on Friday rejected changes that legislators made to fix the state’s deeply troubled pension system, leaving Illinois where it had started — with a significant budget crisis, a vastly underfunded public pension system and no plan in sight.

    All seven members of the state’s highest court found that a pension overhaul lawmakers had agreed to almost a year and a half ago violated the Illinois Constitution. Under this state constitution, pension pledges cannot be “diminished or impaired.””

    http://www.nytimes.com/2015/05/09/us/illinois-supreme-court-rejects-lawmakers-pension-overhaul.html

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    • jnc:

      Under this state constitution, pension pledges cannot be “diminished or impaired.””

      Unfortunately economic reality is not governed by the Illinois state constitution. You can’t pay what you don’t have.

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  10. redefining the concepts of man and woman.

    All part of the master-plan. Some day I will finally get to marry my underage transgendered dog sibling.

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    • yello:

      All part of the master-plan.

      I wouldn’t elevate it to the level of an actual master-plan, which would imply some kind of coherent thought. I think it is much more akin to instinctual responses to emotional stimuli, without out any consideration of what came before or what will come after.

      Some day I will finally get to marry my underage transgendered dog sibling.

      You can do that already. You just can’t force a state to recognize it, nor can you force a priest to do the honors for you. Yet.

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  11. Scott, I expect to see this get pushed again:

    “A Path Is Sought for States to Escape Their Debt Burdens
    By MARY WILLIAMS WALSH
    JAN. 20, 2011

    Policymakers are working behind the scenes to come up with a way to let states declare bankruptcy and get out from under crushing debts, including the pensions they have promised to retired public workers.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2011/01/21/business/economy/21bankruptcy.html

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    • jnc:

      Scott, I expect to see this get pushed again:

      Something will have to be done. As McWing said, what can’t continue, won’t.

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  12. What can’t go on forever, wont.

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  13. You can do that already. You just can’t force a state to recognize it,

    Until I can write off my equine bride on my taxes, it isn’t a valid marriage.

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    • yello:

      Until I can write off my equine bride on my taxes, it isn’t a valid marriage.

      Depends on what “marriage” means, of course. Which nowadays could be anything.

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  14. that’s a tax benefit. marriage is a sacrament. and no law is changing that.

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    • that’s a tax benefit. marriage is a sacrament.

      Maybe in my Church of Equine and Canine Equality interspecies marriage is a beautiful and sacred thing. The wedding ceremony involves the human partner smearing peanut butter all over themselves as a sign of dutiful submission.

      Church Slogan: A dog is man’s best friend, with benefits.

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    • nova:

      marriage is a sacrament. and no law is changing that.

      For the left the state is God, hence the need for the state’s blessing in order for a marriage to be “valid”.

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  15. Explain again what the limiting principle is re marriage. What type of marriage should not be recognized by the State and why?

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    • McWing:

      Explain again what the limiting principle is re marriage…

      As I mentioned to nova yesterday, the left does not understand law making in terms of principles. It only understands it in terms of desired results.

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  16. Self-identifying as a dog?

    I’m not sure if Puppy Play is a fetish, an identity, or an orientation.

    Check it out (NSFW) and let me know your thoughts.

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    • yello:

      I’m not sure if Puppy Play is a fetish, an identity, or an orientation.

      Sounds like a mental health disorder.

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  17. Looks like at least one guy on the left gets it.

    “Pamela Geller Is Not “Morally Responsible” for the Terrorist Attack in Texas The defense of free expression should become stronger in the face of violent threats, not weaker
    By Steven Lubet”

    http://www.newrepublic.com/article/121744/pamela-geller-not-morally-responsible-texas-terrorist-attack

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  18. Michi – looks like the public event is happening today if you can manage to go check it out</

    @jnc4p: I’d seen the story on the news last night and would have loved to go (thanks!), but, work. Dang it!

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  19. For the left the state is God, hence the need for the state’s blessing in order for a marriage to be “valid”.

    If by “blessing” you mean tax and legal advantages, then yes. Eliminate those and level the playing field. If marriage is a sacrament, then the only place it should be recognized is in a church, not by the state.

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    • Mich:

      Mich:

      If by “blessing” you mean tax and legal advantages, then yes.

      By blessing I meant approval, acceptance, or endorsement.

      BTW, I doubt very much you have anything against legal and tax advantages for selected classes in principle.

      If marriage is a sacrament, then the only place it should be recognized is in a church, not by the state.

      Just because something is recognized by the church as a sacrament doesn’t mean the state can’t have an interest in it as well. But that aside, I think it is fair to say that, unlike yello, couples who view marriage as a sacrament don’t need either the state’s blessing or tax advantages to view their marriage as valid.

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  20. Does anybody here think that if there were no tax or legal advantages to state recognized marriage there would be no agitation for the State to recognize gay marriage? Or any of the other forms of marriage that we know (and some here pretend are too ridiculous to consider) are coming?

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    • Hello Everyone! I know, it’s been a very long time, but I have kept up with all the comments coming into my email. Just thought I would pass on how things have been going for me this past year, or more.

      First, my disability claim: It took 2 full years, minus 3 weeks. I got my approval in January along with my backpay and I finally will be able to get medical care starting in July. I have my first 2 Dr. appts set, 1 with my new PP (prev one retired) and I have 1 with my orthopedic surgeon to get things going on my neck. BTW, this 2 year process took 1 year longer than necessary simply due to mistakes made by SSDI. First mistake is what forced me into the Judicial review which ate up 9 months to get to the hearing and the mistake that caused it was the SSDI rep who called me about my crushed foot and as I explained she needed to wait at least 10 days to pull new medical records and even though she agreed, did not wait. If she had waited, I certainly would have been approved, just as I was once I made my judicial appearance last July. Ah, but then there is the second mistake, which actually led to a third mistake. Second mistake, the subpoenaed Vocational Rehab Expert failed to appear at my hearing. While the judge was prepared to approve my claim, he legally could not without the VRE input. So he had to send her a letter of questions. It only took him 10 days to have the letter ready to send. After waiting to hear something for more than 90 days later, it was discovered, due to ME calling them, that the letter had never been sent. So, between the SSDI NOT waiting for new medical records, and the VRE not appearing, AND, the more than 3 months lost due to not sending that letter, my SSDI wait time had more than 1 year of unncecssary delays. No wonder the wait times for approval are SOOO FREAKING LONG. But in the end, it’s done, our bills are caught up (can’t believe we held onto our home, came so very close to losing it), and we are finally able to breathe a sigh of relief.

      On the inverse condemnation case with the City of BA: Not much news to give. I called my attorneys office in January to see where we are and if we needed to come up with any more money for the lawsuit (just got my SSDI backpay). Financially all was good and was told they expect us to be “almost” done by the end of this year. Evidently it’s a nice way of saying, not this year, perhaps next. We’ll see how it goes.

      And finally an announcement that takes how I believed before and now adds a personal element which only enforces my belief even more: We kept our 2 granddaughters last weekend. Ivy is 14 1/2, Jada is 9 1/2 (have to include the 1/2s LOL). They are both awesome kids in every way; smart (both take AP courses), independent, talented and of course, absolutely gorgeous (Jada is a child “Marilyn Monroe” and Ivy could play Cote De Pablo’s sister, looks just like her). This has been something that I have suspected for more than 2 years so I was not surprised one bit. Ivy announced, first to her parents a couple weeks ago, and then to me and her Pipa (I’m Mima) this past weekend, that she is Gay. I AM TOTALLY AND COMPLETELY PROUD OF HER. With so many haters out there (Oklahoma is filled with haters of all kinds) and being at her age having to face many of them in school, she showed just how strong she is, how strongly she knows herself and how strongly she chooses to BE WHO SHE IS.

      And for those of you on here who believe it’s WRONG, that she is simply MAKING A CHOICE, or whatever your hate or intolerance tells you, well, you can just go Fuck yourselves. She is only 14 and she has NO experience(s) for her to make a “choice” like this; and no, she is not sexually active and therefore can’t even rely on that for a “choice”. She is who she is. She was born with her insides not matching her outsides; plain and simple. Both my husband and I have her back. Be careful what you say because being gay is just something that happens to many and no one, and I mean NO ONE, has the right to tell my very wonderful granddaughter who she can and cannot love or marry.

      And I guess that’s all the news I have. I hope to give good news about my surgeries as soon as we get to them and, hopefully on our house lawsuit if we ever get to it.

      Hope you all have a great weekend and a Happy Mother’s Day to you Ladies!

      On Sat, May 9, 2015 at 10:46 AM, All Things in Moderation wrote:

      > Let the mutherfuker burn! commented: “Does anybody here think that if > there were no tax or legal advantages to state recognized marriage there > would be no agitation for the State to recognize gay marriage? Or any of > the other forms of marriage that we know (and some here pretend are too > ridic”

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  21. Who here do you think has said or believes that?

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  22. Not sure if that was a response to my post or not. If it was, please be more specific cause I don’t want to give a reply without knowing what is being asked. If no, then please ignore the crazy woman behind the curtain.

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  23. Oh, and my post wasn’t directly at you. I’m never quite sure if my post will show as a general comment or if as if in reply to a particular person. Again, crazy old woman.

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  24. And for those of you on here who believe it’s WRONG, that she is simply MAKING A CHOICE, or whatever your hate or intolerance tells you, well, you can just go Fuck yourselves.

    This one.

    No worries.

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  25. “First, my disability claim: It took 2 full years, minus 3 weeks. I got my approval in January along with my backpay and I finally will be able to get medical care starting in July.”

    Congrats. Glad you finally got this resolved.

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  26. Unintentional humor from the Washington Post Editorial page:

    “Two years ago, then-Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli II, a Republican with libertarian leanings”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/striking-a-balance-on-privacy-in-virginia/2015/05/09/fc22d59e-f35b-11e4-84a6-6d7c67c50db0_story.html

    No, Cuccinelli does not have “libertarian leanings”.

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  27. Is this how American Progressives view the American Right?

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2015/may/09/labour-left-miliband-hating-english

    Are they correct?

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  28. Just checking in to say Hi………………Hope you’re all doing well. We’ve been really busy and although my intentions are always good to read and comment…..I never quite get there….

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  29. Is that you, lms, or one of your girls?

    Like

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