Morning Report – Q1 GDP comes in negative 5/29/15

 Stocks are lower after first quarter GDP was revised downward. Bonds and MBS are up.

The second revision to first quarter GDP came in at -0.7%, a little better than expected. The port strike and a harsh winter are affecting the results somewhat, so take the number with a grain of salt. There are also questions regarding the seasonal adjustments BEA puts on GDP data – the first quarter has been unusually weak the past two years.

Personal consumption came in at +1.8%, a small drop from the first revision and a touch lower than expected. The headline inflation number was negative, however the core was up 0.8%. Inflation is still running below the Fed’s target of 2%.

In other economic data, the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment survey improved in May to 90.7 from 88.6. The Chicago Purchasing Manager Index fell.

Wall Street is a young person’s game for the most part – by the time you are in your 30s you are old and if you are in your 40s, you are a senior citizen. Right now, Wall Street is staffed with people who have never seen a rate hike. I keep saying it, but the stock market is assigning a 100% probability that the Fed can raise rates without anyone blowing up. The last 3 times rates rose, we blew up the MBS market, the stock market and the residential real estate market. And we have a sovereign debt bubble on our hands right now.

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