Morning Report – Lenders more optimistic about 2015 3/20/15

Markets are higher this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up.

Slow news day.

There is no economic data this morning and much of the Street will be exiting early ahead of yet another snowstorm.

Now that we no longer can rely on housing equity extraction to fund consumption, the correlation coefficient between spending and wages is higher than ever.  One more reason why the Fed will probably not begin raising rates too aggressively until we start seeing real wage growth. As of now, we are seeing about 2% annual wage growth versus slightly below 2% inflation. So real wages are in fact growing, just not by much.

Mortgage lenders are more optimistic about 2015 than mortgage consumers, according to the Fannie Mae quarterly survey of lender sentiment.

12 Responses

  1. I’m becoming more and more convinced that there is never any real news! 🙂

    Here in MD the governor’s attempt to withdraw a raise for state employees is rumored to be failing. . . which I (for one) would applaud. Wages may really be going up.

    Frist!

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  2. No, the COLA. Which is the first COLA I’ve seen in over 10 years. They don’t believe in them in red states (or Utah, at least–everything is stuck in the 1950s there).

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  3. Wages may really be going up.

    The two leading indicators of the job market – initial jobless claims and job openings have been flashing green (boom time levels, really) for months now. The lagging indicators (wages and the labor force participation rate) have been dormant. I suspect we are on the cusp of wage growth (although with inflation so fundamentally low, I don’t expect a massive hike, but it will be something).

    The big question is whether the labor force participation rate goes up meaningfully from here. That will act as a damper on wages at least initially, but it will be better for the economy in the longer run.

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  4. Does the Federal government have the Constitutional power to mandate that the Soveriegn states spend their (the State raised) tax revenue a certai way or on a certain project?

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  5. if you have thoughts/links, any info regarding policy accountability/transparency, hit me up at novahockeypl@gmail.com

    stuff that i can use in a public forum.

    thx

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    • McWing:

      Insane.

      Yes. I thought this perfectly encapsulates the twilight zone world that the left has created on campuses these days.

      At one point she went to the lecture hall — it was packed — but after a while, she had to return to the safe space. “I was feeling bombarded by a lot of viewpoints that really go against my dearly and closely held beliefs,” Ms. Hall said.

      Understandable. College is the last place where one should be confronted with viewpoints that challenge one’s “dearly and closely held beliefs”.

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  6. Things could be coming to a head in Greece.

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  7. http://morningafter.gawker.com/john-oliver-shut-down-the-fuck-barrel-of-pernicious-1693070305/+jayhathaway

    unbelievable. check out the comments. so close, but they can’t figure it out.

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  8. @ScottC: “Understandable. College is the last place where one should be confronted with viewpoints that challenge one’s “dearly and closely held beliefs”

    It is appalling that a school would require their students to think. Or might accidentally do something that might require them to think. Or expose them to anything that doesn’t confirm their own pre-existing biases.

    Than goodness she was brave enough to run away from any challenging or different thoughts.

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