Morning Report – 2015 could be the best year for housing since 2007 3/13/15

Markets are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds andMBS are flattish.

Inflation at the wholesale level remains nowhere to be found, as the Producer Price Index fell .5%. You can’t blame this on oil, as the index fell .5% ex-food and energy. Six out of the last seven months have been negative on the headline number.

Consumer sentiment fell to 91.2 from 95.4 in February, according the University of Michigan. Current conditions are down, but expectations fell quite a bit. Does a lot of snow make people depressed?

Freddie Mac is saying that 2015 could be the best year for housing since 2007. Given the carnage in housing over the past 8 years, that is like discussing the best season for the Detroit Lions under Matt Millen. They are forecasting housing starts of 1.18 million, mortgage originations of $1.3 trillion (of which 40% are refis), and home sales of 5.6 million.

The NYT has a good article on parsing the Fed’s language. Next week we will get the FOMC decision, and everyone will be looking for the presence of absence of the word “patient.” (In the context of “the Fed can be patient in raising interest rates.). If that word is removed, the market will take it to mean the Fed will hike rates at its June FOMC meeting. For LOs with borrowers who are floating, let them know that next Wed could be a big day in the bond market.

18 Responses

  1. Heh, heh, heh, heh, heh. . . .


  2. Does a lot of snow make people depressed?

    Does the Pope wear a funny hat?


  3. NoVA, can you share anything regarding your trip to the Hill yesterday?


  4. Not skiers

    Depends on the snow! 🙂


  5. i think this might actually happen.
    monday we’ll know more


  6. People who should know better spouting off.

    ““I would use the word mutinous,” said Eaton, whose long career includes training Iraqi forces from 2003 to 2004. He is now a senior adviser to “I do not believe these senators were trying to sell out America. I do believe they defied the chain of command in what could be construed as an illegal act.” Eaton certainly had stern words for Cotton.

    “What Senator Cotton did is a gross breach of discipline, and especially as a veteran of the Army, he should know better,” Eaton told me.”

    Someone needs to remind the General that being a Senator is not the same as being in the Army and that Senators and Members of Congress do not report to the President up “the chain of command” but are in fact members of a co-equal branch of government.

    Looking forward to see how many progressives/liberals/Democrats call him out on the point vs use his comments to buttress their case.


  7. @michigoose: “Does the Pope wear a funny hat?”

    I think it’s quite stylish. I wear mind when out shopping, or just lounging around the house. Makes me look taller.


  8. But the climate science shit is rock-fucking-solid!

    Will no one rid us of these malicious Wingnuts?


  9. Is this the vaunted tolerance of the left we hear so much about?

    After the show Ms. Walters castigated her. “’You know, the world is round,’” Ms. Shepherd said Ms. Walters told her.

    Or this?

    In 2010, Ms. Goldberg and Ms. Behar walked offstageafter the Fox talk show host Bill O’Reilly made a comment about Muslims none of them agreed with.


  10. It’s amusing to hear right-wing pundits declare that the 2016 POTUS election will be a “Foreign Policy” election. The coordination and messaging is as ham-handed as it is stupid.

    How popular will it be after Americans start to die?

    How is it paid for?

    The death of American hegemony is as hard to accept on the right as the idiocy of a right to healthcare is on the left.


  11. @gbowden41: re: science being wrong. It’s a fantasy this is new. Politics and funding and internal sniping and distortion had been with us since Newton and before. Alchemy was an art full of folks too knowledgable and mysterious for the hoipoloi to dare question. The underlying realities are the same,only the general structure it happens within gets modified.


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