Morning Report – Housing data dump 6/24/14

Vital Statistics:

 

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1950.4 -2.6 -0.13%
Eurostoxx Index 3284.3 1.8 0.05%
Oil (WTI) 106.1 0.0 -0.03%
LIBOR 0.234 0.001 0.43%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.26 -0.017 -0.02%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.60% -0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.5 0.0
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.6 -0.1
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.21

 

Markets are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are up small. Philly Fed Head Charles Plosser said that he could see 2.4% GDP growth for the rest of the year and more slack taken out of the labor market.
New Home Sales spiked to 504k in May, much higher than the 439k estimate. The median sales price of a new home was 282k and the seasonally-adjusted estimate of new homes for sale was 189,000, or about 4.5 months’ supply. This Friday, we will hear from homebuilder KB Home when they report second quarter earnings.
Consumer Confidence rose to 85.2 form 83 last month, and higher than the 83.5 forecast on the street. This is the highest level since January 2008. Perceptions on the economy and the job market are improving, although they are still highly negative.
The Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index came in stronger than expected. We are seeing pricing pressures build. Prices paid (the cost of inputs) rose at a 1.11% rate, while prices received rose at a .37% annualized rate. Eventually producers will pass those increases on, which will eventually get inflation closer to the Fed’s comfort zone.
Home prices were flat month-over-month in April, according to the FHFA. On a year-over-year basis, they were up just shy of 6%. Prices are back at July 2005 levels.
Home prices posted an 11% gain, according to Case-Shiller. Home price appreciation is leveling off.
And if that weren’t enough, The Black Knight Financial Services Home Price Report has prices up .9% month-over-month and up 6.4% year-over-year.
The reason for the difference between the reports? FHFA covers only sales with a conforming mortgage, while Case-Shiller covers everything. The Black Knight report uses an algorithm to correct for distressed and short sales. Regardless of the index you use, the easy money has been made in home price appreciation and now we should see house prices begin to track wage growth again.
Treasury Secretary Jake Lew is expected to announce expanded programs to help struggling mortgage borrowers on June 26. The new aid will “build on previous administration initiatives that helped stabilize the housing market.” Treasury said. We know that the administration is considering a program for the first time homebuyer that gives a break on MI payments if they borrower goes through counseling. I doubt that we are going to see something dramatic like an expansion of HARP eligibility dates. The administration also seems to think that easing buyback requirements will loosen credit. It may, it may not. As noted in the article, if it were a game changer, Obama would be announcing it himself, not having Lew do it at a housing conference.

35 Responses

  1. Honest question, why should the US do anything in Iraq?

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  2. @McWing: They might have weapons of mass destruction.

    We shoulda stayed out of Iraq, unless we were willing to annex it and make it a U.S. Territory, which I would have been all for but I’m probably in the minority there. We certainly don’t need to be there now.

    As for what we’re doing there now, I think it has something to do with global warming.

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  3. Kevin, I actually agree with you re Iraq. Either we annex it and suck all the oil out as fast as possible or we install a friendly thug and arm him and then suck all the oil out.

    Now, as Makos at DKos would say, Fuck them.

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  4. ” unless we were willing to annex it and make it a U.S. Territory

    that would have made sense. the Kick their Ass, Take their Gas plan.

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  5. Funny story about Senate D’s not having enough busywork to show voters back home.

    http://www.politico.com/story/2014/06/harry-reid-democrats-senate-gridlock-108212.html

    If they voted for Harry Reid why are they bitching? I mean, the Senate D women are stupid and don’t know any better, but the men are suppose to, no?

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  6. At this point, just stay out of Iraq. What’s really pointless is sending in 300 advisers.

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    • George, I will repeat this – the US interest is truly with the Kurdish north, which is stable, not Arab, not run by thieves and terrorists, democratic, and just happy with oil. They like us there. They trade with the west. They drink and smoke and don’t dress the women like mummies. Aid for the Kurds is fine with me. Aid for the Iranian sympathizers or AQ? Why?

      Kerry went to the Kurds and asked them to back the regime actively. I am sure the Kurds were polite, and they will destroy the AQ who might threaten their borders. They will secure Kirkuk. But it will be for the Kurds, not for Maliki.

      JNC, you’ve got mail.

      Like

  7. That’s just enough to get somebody killed, but not enough to make a difference. it’s a “we have to do something, this is something, let’s do it”

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  8. @novahockey: “that would have made sense. the Kick their Ass, Take their Gas plan.”

    And “make ’em behave”. Private property, real banks, capital accumulation of capital, easy to start a real business, enforced contract law, yada yada. Impose evil America’s system of laws and morals. Only way you’re going to make war and get a decent country afterwards. Swapping out one dictator for another is just a silly waste of time.

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  9. Kevin, I disagree. A friendly dictator doesn’t have to last forever and no MEastern country has shown any interest in a Western style governing system.

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    • McWing:

      Another fantastic article from Williamson.

      Back when we had liberals here, from time to time one of them would object to my oft-expressed notion that liberals tend to want to nationalize everything. I asked a few of them how they determined which policies should be nationalized and which should not. I never got much of a response to that question.

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  10. Interesting how Karzai understands how the US government works:

    “See, the Western opinion is trying to promote a model of governance here where the government is working for itself rather than for the people.”

    http://www.theatlantic.com/international/archive/2014/06/an-exit-interview-with-afghan-president-hamid-karzai/373199/

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  11. “The point of Social Security — like the point of insisting that health insurance is “a right” rather than a consumer good — is to redefine the relationship between citizen and state”

    I like how my ramblings and mutterings have found an audience.

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  12. Heh.

    Juicer gonna cut a bitch though.

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  13. I have a neighbor who works for the ex-im bank. he’s been working some long hours.

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  14. My question still stands then if the Kurds can take care of themselves, why should we do anything?

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    • My question still stands then if the Kurds can take care of themselves, why should we do anything?

      Good question. My view would be to help them as they transition to independence so they remember it is better to pipeline oil west than north or east. Shouldn’t take any heroic or military measures. More like sending agriculture and engineering experts to help them completely modernize. We did that for Czechoslovkia to help them transition after the Soviet puppet gummint fell. A little help works with friends but all the help in the world doesn’t benefit us if they hate us.

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  15. @McWing: “Kevin, I disagree. A friendly dictator doesn’t have to last forever and no MEastern country has shown any interest in a Western style governing system.”

    No, in my fantasy world we don’t give them a choice. It doesn’t matter whether they are interested or not. If they aren’t interested, they can move to Iran. But they had better be able to move faster than the drones can track them. What we did in Iraq was so ass-backwards, the mind boggles. And when I say ass-backwards, I mean the overall possibly. Our military men and women kicked ass.

    It would be a democratic but not home-grown government. And one not turned over to the locals for at least a generation, preferably three.

    Problem is friendly dictators rarely turn out to be friendly. Especially these days. When it comes to setting up puppet regimes, we never get what we pay for.

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    • Kevin:

      No, in my fantasy world we don’t give them a choice. It doesn’t matter whether they are interested or not. If they aren’t interested, they can move to Iran.

      You mean treat them the way the left treats its domestic political opponents?

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  16. To be clear, the optimum outcome is we keep captured territories. We should still have West Berlin. It should be U.S. West Berlin. And the U.S. Philippines. And U.S. Japan. Iraq should be a U.S. territory in perpetuity. I don’t want Afghanistan but I supposed a case could be made for it.

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  17. They only have to do our bidding till the oil’s gone, then who cares.

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  18. @ScottC: “You mean treat them the way the left treats its domestic political opponents?”

    Are we a more liberal nation now than we were 50 years ago? It’s not an ineffective strategy.

    Indeed. Yes, only moreso. Unacceptable for dictators, as it treads on their sovereignty, however. But I’m good with it.

    @McWing: “They only have to do our bidding till the oil’s gone, then who cares.”

    I’m an imperialist at heart.

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  19. I love that Hack Sargent is defending crony capitalism and the corrupt ExIm bank.

    http://m.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2014/06/24/another-government-shutdown/

    Right now voters love crony capitalism and corporate welfare!

    Does Schumer have any idea of the implications of his statement?

    “The Tea Party is moving the Republican Party so far to the right on important issues like the Export-Import Bank, that the business community is now farther from the Republican Party and closer to Democrats. On issue after issue, from Ex-Im to immigration reform and tax extenders, the Republican leadership in the House is choosing the Tea Party over groups like the Chamber of Commerce that used to be the bedrock of the GOP.”

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  20. Mark, it helps boost exports but the risk associated with the loan guarantees falls on the taxpayers. It had to be bailed out in the 1980’s. It’s classic private profits with socialized losses or as Elizabeth Warren put it “socialism for rich people”.

    Also, the process that determines who gets the loan guarantees is political and corrupt.

    http://articles.latimes.com/1987-12-21/news/mn-20449_1_export-import-bank

    Red State synopsis with citations

    http://www.redstate.com/diary/brian_d/2012/05/04/top-ten-reasons-to-end-the-export-import-bank/

    Bernie Sanders piece against it.

    http://www.commondreams.org/views02/0515-09.htm

    & other quotes:

    http://www.nationalreview.com/corner/296249/its-not-just-conservatives-who-oppose-export-import-bank-ramesh-ponnuru

    Like

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