Morning Report – Jobs Day 4/4/14

Vital Statistics:

 

  Last Change Percent
S&P Futures  1890.4 7.4 0.39%
Eurostoxx Index 3220.6 13.9 0.43%
Oil (WTI) 101.3 1.0 0.98%
LIBOR 0.23 -0.001 -0.33%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.34 -0.131 -0.16%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.76% -0.04%  
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 105.2 0.4  
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.1 0.4  
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2  
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.44    

 

Stocks are higher after an okay jobs report. Bonds and MBS are rallying
 
Nonfarm payrolls rose 192k in March, slightly behind the 200k estimate. February was revised upward to 197k from 175k. The ADP Jobs report was spot on, for once with their estimate of 191k. The unemployment rate was unchd at 6.7% and the labor force participation rate rose to 63.2%. Average hourly earnings were flat, while average weekly hours increased to 34.5. So overall, it is an okay jobs report, nothing great, but nothing terrible either. Par for the course these days. 
 
Separately, outplacement firm Challenger, Gray, and Christmas reported that announced job cuts fell 30% in March, making the first quarter the lowest in announced job cuts in 20 years. Announced job cuts are dropping, and the ISM reports show employment plans are increasing. 
 
Smallish homebuilder Beazer Homes gave an update yesterday. Orders are down 9%, while backlog is down 2%. Orders on the West Coast dropped 16%. It appears prices simply moved to far too fast out there. 
 
James Lockhart, former regulator for Fan and Fred says the stocks are worthless. At this point, they are litigation lottery tickets. 

 

57 Responses

  1. Frist.

    And Daisy has returned–I’m not really the cute kitten type, I don’t think.

    Like

    • Mark/Mich/yello/lms (if she be lurking):

      If a state or group of states proposed to go their own way and secede from the Union, would you oppose it and advocate that the federal government prevent it from happening, or would you advocate that the state(s) should be allowed to go their separate way if that is what the people of the state desire? Obviously there are a lot of details that would need to be sorted out and might impact your ultimate position, but I am mostly just interested whether, in principle, you are opposed to allowing states that no longer want to live under the laws imposed by the federal government to peaceably leave the union.

      Like

  2. OT: I’m about to buy a 2nd car without having set foot at the dealership. been negotiating the past few days through with email with 2 dealers. quite the different experience.

    Like

  3. NoVA:

    I bought my last two cars somewhat similarly: USAA did the negotiations and I went to the dealership and picked them up. I liked it. A lot.

    Like

  4. Scott and jnc: I’ll get back to both of you–need to run a couple of errands first.

    Like

    • jnc:

      Wonkblog piece on High Frequency Trading.

      I’ve been following this over the last week with great interest, and this is the first time I have heard that what is happening is already explicitly illegal under Reg NMS. If that is true, then the solution seems simple. But I wonder if it really is already as explicitly illegal as your link claims.

      Like

  5. “USAA did the negotiations”

    that’s what I used. and then I pressed for more. Mrs. NoVa’s grandfather was an naval officer on a P3

    Like

  6. HFT is a pain in the ass, but realize that these guys are skimming fractions of a penny. Back when I started in the business, bid / ask spreads on the floor of the NYSE were 1/8. And if you wanted a bulge bracket desk to execute your order, you paid them a nickel. Just saying that the costs of trading have been going down, regardless of HFT.

    That said, HFT adds no value to the market, so I will not be sad to see it go.

    Like

  7. I bought my last two cars somewhat similarly: USAA did the negotiations and I went to the dealership and picked them up. I liked it. A lot.

    I had no idea they did that. I use USAA for everything, mortgage, car insurance, life insurance, etc.

    Like

  8. It’s pretty cool, Brent. just be ready for the onslaught. Basically, I logged into out account, selected the make/model of the car we wanted to buy, confirmed my contact information, and within 1 min, my inbox and cell phone were blowing up with offers from area dealers. all of them from 3-5k less than MSRP.

    Like

  9. My cars are getting a little long in the tooth, so I will be looking to buy in the near future. Will definitely use them.

    Like

  10. jnc,

    I think you are mistaken about this. For better or for worse, only a minority (25% or less) will care in ten years.

    No, for several reasons. First, it is unlikely ever to be as low as 25% even in hard survey terms in which people are afraid to say what they think. Second, religious freedom is a core value of this country. The left will have to completely destroy it to “resolve” this issue to their liking. Third, even if only 25% “cared,” that 25% also isn’t going away and won’t be pushed to the back of the bus. This issue is nothing like race, and ultimately the gay marriage/gay rights ideology is incoherent and unsustainable, and the hegemony of the gay marriage ideology in fact is a direct assault on the integrity of real families (no, I don’t really care who takes offense at that right now).

    I’m indifferent as to whether or not any two (or more) people can call themselves married. I’d prefer to change the tax structure associated with marriage and I oppose these sorts of changes being executed through judicial fiat, but I expect that gay marriage won’t have nearly the staying power as a cultural issue as abortion has had.

    I don’t think the law can not take the institution of marriage into account, but not doing so at all would be preferable to corrupting it. You are very incorrect in thinking the controvery will not last like abortion. People refuse to stop opposing abortion, even though no one is forcing them personally to have abortions. Gay marriage is quite different. We and our children are being forced into recognizing it and treating it as equivalent, which goes beyond merely being offensive.

    Edit: On a broader note, marriage as an institution involving lifelong commitment is on the inevitable decline I believe. Gay marriage runs far behind no fault divorce as the cause of this trend and I don’t see marriage going back to the previous trends, but the decline will probably plateau and stabilize at some point

    Of course gay marriage runs far behind as a cause of what has already happened, since it was just invented out of whole cloth yesterday, relatively speaking. But I think you are just reinforcing my own point, which is that it is silly to claim that redefining marriage to include the oxymoron of gay marriage won’t make any difference. All such changes matter. The trend you point out is what allows me to have argued before on many occasions that all of the characteristics of marriage the revisionists give are fallacious, because none of them is even close to being a universal. Marriage is no longer deemed permanent. So that notion can go out the window. Love, commitment, exclusivity, etc.–all of these things can easily be shown to be be absent from a portion of recognized marriages. The only thing that has been defining and constant is sexual complementarity.

    Edit: Once the only truly defining characteristic of marriage has been abolished, therefore, what exactly will be left? I once again pose the question: what is marriage? How can anyone define it in a way that I can’t easily donstruct?

    Edit 2: Arguments like yours either assume that the merits do not matter or favor gay marriage. I question the first and obviously reject the second. I suspect that your argument here, that the issue will subside, is more based on the first — that it doesn’t matter whether gay marriage is a good or bad idea. In the long run, I would argue that the merits always matter and can’t indefinitely be suppressed.

    Like

  11. As to doing something rash, I am not that concerned. My firm needs me more than I need it, by a long shot. I have been fending off offers for a long time. Not that I don’t take it seriously.

    But when a band of radicals wants to contribute my money and attach my name to an offensive, very high-profile, offensive cause, I draw the line. That is what is currently happening at my firm. It is a recurrent pattern. Liberals are either too arrogant or to blind and ignorant to realize that their causes are their causes and not those of others. They see no problem taking other people’s money and names for their own offensive uses.

    Same as it ever was.

    Like

  12. jnc:

    I’d say she’s spot on. One of the things that I always did was to max the men’s physical training test–my point being that if I was going to lead men I’d darn well better be able to lead them, not be held to a different standard. I can’t speak directly to the Marine Corps training, since it’s quite different than Army training, but she makes excellent points about making more of the training co-ed and holding women to the same standard as men from the outset.

    I also agree that standards shouldn’t be changed in order to get women into certain roles, but the military should (and can) do a better job of preparing women to meet those standards. I’ve always said that I wouldn’t have succeeded as much as I did if I hadn’t been an athlete for 10 years before becoming an Army officer. Especially if you want to go into a front-line unit, you’ve got to be incredibly physically fit.

    And the movie GI Jane has always pissed me off–it would have been much more realistic (if less sexy) if they’d had her go to Ranger school rather than SEAL school.

    Like

  13. “Edit 2: Arguments like yours either assume that the merits do not matter or favor gay marriage. I question the first and obviously reject the second. I suspect that your argument here, that the issue will subside, is more based on the first — that it doesn’t matter whether gay marriage is a good or bad idea. In the long run, I would argue that the merits always matter and can’t indefinitely be suppressed.”

    Not precisely. I’m simply questioning the premise that this one issue will be the “catalyzing issue” as compared to what’s come previously.

    Like

  14. Thanks Michi. I seemed to remember that was what your experience was, but I didn’t want to assume.

    I think the writer is correct that the Marine Corps does a disservice to it’s female Marines by maintaining different standards initially.

    Eventually you get to a point where that’s not compatible with the mission and then they aren’t prepared to advance further.

    Like

    • jnc:

      I think the writer is correct that the Marine Corps does a disservice to it’s female Marines by maintaining different standards initially.

      I think this applies to pretty much any kind of program designed to increase the representation of a currently “underrepresented” demographic. It is one reason why most affirmative programs at universities are nefarious and counterproductive.

      Like

  15. QB – You may appreciate Andrew Sullivan’s take on the Mozilla firing:

    “Will he now be forced to walk through the streets in shame? Why not the stocks? The whole episode disgusts me – as it should disgust anyone interested in a tolerant and diverse society. If this is the gay rights movement today – hounding our opponents with a fanaticism more like the religious right than anyone else – then count me out.”

    http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/04/03/the-hounding-of-brendan-eich/

    http://dish.andrewsullivan.com/2014/04/03/the-hounding-of-a-heretic-ctd/

    Like

    • If this is the gay rights movement today – hounding our opponents with a fanaticism more like the religious right than anyone else…

      I’m curious what kind of hounding by the religious right he has in mind. I think the politically correct left displays much, much more intolerance of disagreement than the so-called religious right.

      Like

  16. “as it should disgust anyone interested in a tolerant and diverse society.”

    yeah, that’s not the goal anymore.

    Like

  17. He means how the right hounds Sarah Palin about who birthed Trig.

    Dude’s a freak and deserves to be interned like the rest of the climate deniers.

    Like

  18. I linked it and commented on it on PL last night. Based on the responses I received I’ve concluded that they actually don’t understand the arguments presented in the piece, even for what they are in favor of.

    Like

  19. Obviously there are a lot of details that would need to be sorted out and might impact your ultimate position, but I am mostly just interested whether, in principle, you are opposed to allowing states that no longer want to live under the laws imposed by the federal government to peaceably leave the union.

    Been thinking about this while running around. . . in principle, no, I’d let them go. I the Real World, though, I don’t think that this will ever happen peaceably, so I’m against the idea. I don’t think it would be a “win” for anyone.

    Like

    • Nich:

      I the Real World, though, I don’t think that this will ever happen peaceably, so I’m against the idea.

      Pretty much the only thing that could make a secession movement non-peaceable would be a decision by the feds to forcibly prevent it.

      I don’t think it would be a “win” for anyone.

      Shouldn’t the secessionists be able to make that judgement for themselves?

      Like

  20. I’m curious what kind of hounding by the religious right he has in mind.

    Probably Westboro

    Like

    • Brent:

      Probably Westboro

      Probably, although if so he should be more specific. Westboro >< the religious right.

      Like

  21. More “unintended” consequences.

    http://m.huffpost.com/us/entry/5041823?utm_source=digg&utm_medium=email

    I bet this was not predicted by anyone.

    Like

  22. Woodwork effect.

    Like

  23. ^^ no, i was laughed out of the room for suggesting that.

    Like

  24. Based on the responses I received I’ve concluded that they actually don’t understand the arguments presented in the piece, even for what they are in favor of

    Color me shocked.

    Like

  25. More “unintended” consequences.

    Which is why the claim that marijuana legalization will generate all of these revenues is crazy. You will just have more growers, which will drive the black market price down. No one will use the dispensaries.

    Like

  26. Pretty much the only thing that could make a secession movement non-peaceable would be a decision by the feds to forcibly prevent it.

    Oh, I imagine that there would be a sizable proportion of the population in any given state that wouldn’t take kindly to being made non-Americans.

    Like

    • Mich:

      Oh, I imagine that there would be a sizable proportion of the population in any given state that wouldn’t take kindly to being made non-Americans.

      I suspect it wouldn’t be a realistic option unless approval was pretty overwhelming in a given state.

      Like

  27. I’ve got two VW dealers fighting for my business. it’s awesome.

    this deal keeps getting better and better all the time!

    Like

  28. I suspect it wouldn’t be a realistic option unless approval was pretty overwhelming in a given state.

    I most definitely agree. Which is why I don’t think it would happen in the Real World.

    Like

  29. I’ve got two VW dealers fighting for my business. it’s awesome.

    *Doing the arm circling dance*

    Go NoVA! Go NoVA!

    Like

  30. The free market is a wonderful thing. Good thing you aren’t being forced to use Obamacar ™.

    Like

    • jnc:

      Good thing you aren’t being forced to use Obamacar ™.

      If you like your car, you can keep it. (Unless it is a subcompact….)

      Like

  31. The obamacar would advertise 60 miles to the gallon, get 12, cost 50 grand, but would be subsidized such that some people go it for free and others had to pay full cost.

    It would also lose money and Congress would have to bail out the manufacturer each year.

    Like

  32. Groan!!!

    Like

  33. “It would also lose money and Congress would have to bail out the manufacturer each year.”

    Wait, that’s not far removed from the current state of affairs.

    Like

  34. The Obamamobile.

    the homer
    Presenting the car designed| or the average man the Homer! -Questions?|-What does this monstrosity cost? Jerry, what’s the sticker price? $82,000! This monstrosity costs $82,000? What have I done?

    and of course, someone actually built one:

    http://wheels.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/03/homer-simpsons-perfect-car-comes-to-life-at-24-hours-of-lemons/

    Like

  35. the tolerant left in action…

    Like

  36. If a state or group of states proposed to go their own way and secede from the Union, would you oppose it and advocate that the federal government prevent it from happening, or would you advocate that the state(s) should be allowed to go their separate way if that is what the people of the state desire?

    Does your hypothetical have anything to do with the right to own slaves?

    Like

  37. Yes Yello Scott wants to own slaves. His talk of liberty and self determination is all a ruse! You found him out!

    The jigs up you bastard! Come clean and admit you want to subjugate some group of people!

    Like

    • McWing:

      The jigs up you bastard! Come clean and admit you want to subjugate some group of people!

      I am routinely amazed at the success that the professional left has had in manipulating its base with mindless, unthinking caricatures of their political opponents. As Obama once said about himself, they really believe their own bullshit.

      Like

      • I am routinely amazed at the success that the professional left has had in manipulating its base with mindless, unthinking caricatures of their political opponents.

        That really didn’t answer my question.

        The last group of people who sought to secede were doing so exactly over that issue so I don’t see it’s irrelevance. I’m going to carry this over to the newer thread.

        Like

        • yello:

          That really didn’t answer my question.

          If that was a serious question, then you are too stupid for me to bother with.

          Like

  38. I’m pretty sure that Slate piece was in the “A Modest Proposal” vein.

    Though Salaten is a complete d-bag.

    Like

  39. Will no one stop this monster?!?!?!

    Like

  40. Hey, you can’t pretend to trademark Obamacar. I was using that years ago. Don’t make me sue you.

    Like

  41. The last group of people who sought to secede were doing so exactly over that issue so I don’t see it’s irrelevance. I’m going to carry this over to the newer thread.

    And yet, ironically, in this case it is the people trying not to be subjugated by the radical left who like the idea of separation.

    I’m just for giving liberal a few of the least desirable areas and letting them do the best they can. It is their ideology that is alien to the USA and that is ruining it. Maybe Australia would take them and put them in the Outback.

    Like

Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: