Morning Report – spring selling season begins early 02/03/14

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1776.5 -0.1 -0.01%
Eurostoxx Index 3003.0 -11.0 -0.36%
Oil (WTI) 97.79 0.3 0.31%
LIBOR 0.236 -0.001 -0.42%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.22 -0.088 -0.11%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.67% 0.03%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106 -0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.7 -0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.26
Markets are flat this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down.
In spite of all the snow falling in the Northeast, the spring selling season more or less begins now. Last week, we heard from PulteGroup and D.R. Horton who both observed that traffic patterns were unusually strong in January, indicating the spring selling season has begun early. Regarding interest rates, both companies said the shock from higher rates appears to have worn off and buyers realize the low rates of a year ago aren’t coming back. Both companies target the first time homebuyer who still remains absent from the market, although the move-up buyer appears to be doing well.
Why is the first time homebuyer struggling? Student loan debt and a lousy job market are considerations. Also they are competing with professional investors for starter homes who are buying them to rent.
The Census Bureau reported that the homeownership rate fell to 65.2% at the end of the fourth quarter. The big excesses of the bubble years have been worked off.

Nonvoting San Francisco Fed Head John Williams said that the issues in the emerging markets aren’t changing the Fed’s forecast for the U.S. economy and that the FOMC doesn’t “focus too much on the short-term developments in the markets.” Take that to mean that emerging markets sell-offs aren’t going to affect Fed tapering, at least as long as credit availability remains unaffected.

30 Responses

  1. I think they dubbed in Bob Dylan’s voice for the Chrysler commercial. No way he sounds that good in real life.

    Oh, and FRIST!

    Like

  2. I liked the radio shack ad

    Like

  3. How would you have liked to be a company that dropped millions for an ad that played in the fourth quarter?

    Like

  4. Every single commercial that aired during the game was better than the game, even if they were crappy commercials. We left the party we were at early…………….oooops. And I enjoyed the half time show…………….so that was worth the price of admission maybe.

    Have a great week everyone!

    Like

  5. It can only be a drafting error if one thinks that Max Baucus lied when he said that the law was intentionally written to exclude Federal exchanges from subsidies so that States would set up their own exchanges. It was an inducement.

    Geez, that was a biased article.

    I guess I’m confused. I thought the WaPo played it down the middle?

    Hah, that’s always funny. How far left do you have to be to believe that?

    Like

  6. “Brent Nyitray, on February 3, 2014 at 10:37 am said:

    How would you have liked to be a company that dropped millions for an ad that played in the fourth quarter?”

    How would it be any different than an ad that ran in Q1? I don’t know anyone who actually purchases based on these ads.

    Like

  7. “novahockey, on February 3, 2014 at 10:43 am said:

    i’m having a bit of fun at wonkblog:”

    From your piece:

    “Another case is pending before Judge James Spencer in Richmond, Virginia, fully briefed and awaiting a decision.”

    I’ve been in Judge Spencer’s courtroom before while he’s heard a case. He’s a very good judge.

    See also:
    http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A47449-2004Dec8.html

    Like

  8. what brought you to his courtroom? if you don’t mind sharing.

    Like

  9. Eschoo and Pallone are officially in the running for E&C ranking. Eschoo would have to jump a few people to get it. Pallone is next in line after Dingell. but apparently he’s interested too.

    Like

  10. Here’s a pretty decent piece on Philip Seymour Hoffman that my niece sent me. She knew him a little as an actress who lives in Manhattan. A very poor and starving actress, so they didn’t run in the same circles at all, he was just accessible.

    We live in the golden age of character actors — in an age when actors who have done their time in character roles are frequently asked to carry dark movies and complicated television dramas. The line between character actors and movie stars is being erased — in art, anyway, if not in life. In life, it’s different, because the “movie star” remains not just the product of looks and charm, but also a kind of social construct, with very distinct social obligations. Character actors like Philip Seymour Hoffman and James Gandolfini have found themselves getting more and more leading roles because they are permitted to behave onscreen in ways that George Clooney and Matt Damon never could. But the same permission extends offscreen, and that’s where we see the cost; indeed, we pay to look at men who look like us only when they convince us that that they live in psychic spaces that we could never endure…unless, of course, we happen to be enduring them.

    http://www.esquire.com/blogs/culture/hoffman-junod

    Like

  11. Ok, the claim is so that the Feds have jurisdiction in screwing us, er, in imposing the mandate.

    http://www.cato.org/blog/exactly-what-max-baucus-saying-here

    We all

    Like

  12. Nova, the company I work for was party to some litigation that was being decided. I remember being impressed by both his no BS demeanor with the lawyers and also his fairness to both sides to make sure each got to present their argument.

    More details will have to await a dinner at Charlie Palmer’s.

    Like

  13. Celebrity is the American version of aristocracy. I don’t understand why these people evoke an emotional response similar to a family member from people who have never met them.

    Edit – Great piece lmsinca. Thanks for linking.

    Like

  14. JNC, I don’t understand all the memorial stuff outside their place of residence or where they lived…………….especially like you said, if you don’t even know them.

    My cousin died in December and we had a really remarkable Budhist service for him. He was an absolutely beloved educator in a very poor school in Los Angeles for over 25 years. It was very moving for all of us to hear from his students and fellow teachers who were so grateful for the contributions he made to their lives, but it was all real, if you know what I mean.

    I think it’s too bad when anyone dies young but it’s generally not a personal loss. I will miss seeing him in movies though…………..I liked his style.

    Like

  15. More details will have to await a dinner at Charlie Palmer’s.

    ah, turf and turf.

    Like

    • nova:

      FYI, big game for ND tonight versus newly enshrined #1 in the nation, Syracuse. Last time the Orange were number 1, the Irish took them down. That was in South Bend, though. This one is in the Dome. I’d say good luck, but I hope the Orange crush the Golden Domers.

      Like

  16. Check yourself.
    Before you wreck. Yourself.

    Like

  17. yep. Mrs. Nova is pretty excited about it. should be a good one.

    Like

    • After Saturday’s huge win over over Duke (best game of the college season so far), the Orange are apt to have a letdown. Although ND barely got by my pathetic Eagles (in OT) on Saturday, so they are not that great.

      Like

  18. BTW, Joe Nameth and his coat were the BEST thing about the Super Bowl.

    I bet he was wearing pantyhose too!

    Like

  19. FFS.

    Tens of thousands of people who discovered that HealthCare.gov made mistakes as they were signing up for a health plan are confronting a new roadblock: The government cannot yet fix the errors.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/national/health-science/healthcaregov-cant-handle-appeals-of-enrollment-errors/2014/02/02/bbf5280c-89e2-11e3-916e-e01534b1e132_story.html

    I’m sure the screw-ups are just one-offs, right? Once we’re through this rough patch smooth sailing, right?

    Like

  20. Troll, I assume you are being facetious. The popular will has little to do with bailouts.

    Like

  21. ah, turf and turf

    If I get a top hat may I join you?

    Like

  22. Germany benefits from the profligacy of their Southern neighbors because it keeps the euro weak and German manufacturing competitive.

    Like

  23. But on borrowed money that German old-age pensions are backstopping. That’s what I don’t get.

    Like

  24. “Michigoose, on February 3, 2014 at 4:43 pm said:

    ah, turf and turf

    If I get a top hat may I join you?”

    Sure. We need to figure out when Brent is coming to DC again and plan around that.

    Like

Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: