Morning Report – Fannie and Fred will continue for a while 1/31/14

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1761.9 -19.3 -1.08%
Eurostoxx Index 2974.7 -52.6 -1.74%
Oil (WTI) 97.39 -0.8 -0.86%
LIBOR 0.237 -0.001 -0.42%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 81.23 0.140 0.17%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.65% -0.04%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106 0.1
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 104.7 0.2
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.31
They’re beating the tape with the ugly stick as emerging markets continue to get clobbered. Bonds and MBS are rallying, with the 10 year trading at 2.65%.
We had some mixed earnings reports, with good news out of Google, a miss out of Mastercard, and a warning from Wal Mart.
Personal income came in flat in December (versus a .2% forecast), while personal spending rose .4%. The savings rate dipped to 3.9%. As I have said before – this is how recessions end. Spending increases and then wages increase. The PCE deflator came in in at 1.1%, showing inflation remains a non-problem.
Squabbling among Senate Democrats probably means that nothing will get done about the GSEs this year. Left wing Democrats like Elizabeth Warren and Sherrod Brown will refuse to back any plan to re-organize the GSEs unless it guarantees affordable loans for most buyers. This means they want whatever entity that replaces Fannie and Fred to be more than simply a re-insurer of privately insured mortgages – they want to continue the social engineering role of the GSEs. Not all Democrats are onboard with this idea, let alone Republicans who rightly view government activism as a contributor to the housing bubble. The left would be more than happy to continue the status quo, with Mel Watt (a CRA guy) running the show.

60 Responses

  1. 20 years a schoolin’ and they put ya on the day shift.

    Like

    • McWing:

      Will Teh Krugman remain consistent?

      One of the implications of what Krugman says is very interesting, and almost certainly not something Krugman would ever acknowledge. If it is true that:

      an immigrant worker is paid roughly the value of the additional goods and services he or she enables the U.S. economy to produce. That means that there isn’t anything left over to increase the income of the people already here.

      …and it is also true that:

      My second negative point is that immigration reduces the wages of domestic workers who compete with immigrants. That’s just supply and demand: we’re talking about large increases in the number of low-skill workers relative to other inputs into production, so it’s inevitable that this means a fall in wages.

      …then it must be true that low-skill domestic workers are actually being paid more than the additional value of the goods and services they allow the US to produce, and are hence a drag on the economy, particularly relative to immigrants.

      Consider the implications of that on Krugman’s advocacy for a higher minimum wage.

      Like

  2. “Consider the implications of that on Krugman’s advocacy for a higher minimum wage.”

    Krugman acknowledges the laws of supply and demand also apply to the labor market? Wow… that’s progress

    Like

  3. As I have said before – this is how recessions end.

    Damn, it’s been a long one though!

    Like

  4. Gotta admit that the Progressive’s faith in the CBO is fascinationg. GIGO doesn’t apply here I guess. Didn’t Obamacare teach us anything?

    http://m.washingtonpost.com/opinions/ruth-marcus-on-fiscal-issues-obama-has-only-silence/2014/01/30/a93eef1c-89e3-11e3-833c-33098f9e5267_story.html

    Like

  5. I would love one of our Progressives here to watch this clip from the daily show and comment on Rep. Pelosi’s responses. Was Stewart fair in his questioning? Was Rep. Pelosi honest in her answers

    http://www.mediaite.com/tv/stewart-laughs-in-pelosis-face-after-she-admits-she-doesnt-know-why-obamacare-site-failed/

    Like

  6. I saw that. Made me think of The Longest Yard!

    Like

  7. I’ll admit it. I liked the Replacements, with the chain-smoking British kicker.

    Like

  8. What should be done with people that have more than me but don’t deserve it?

    Like

  9. jnc, you must be the world’s most patient man.

    Alethia’s version of history is certainly. . . interesting at times.

    Like

  10. Alethia is right about the particular facts about the massacres and the role of South Korea’s military dictatorship, but is intentionally being blind about the reality of the North and the Soviet Union’s planning to invade the South all along.

    It’s simply anti-Americanism masquerading as intellectual sophistication.

    Like

  11. “Brent Nyitray, on January 31, 2014 at 10:40 am said:

    “Consider the implications of that on Krugman’s advocacy for a higher minimum wage.”

    Krugman acknowledges the laws of supply and demand also apply to the labor market? Wow… that’s progress”

    No. The cited piece is from 2006.

    Like

  12. Michi, you also missed the fight yesterday with Space over the proposition that OWS is anti-capitalist.

    Apparently they are all about the free market.

    Like

  13. what? did anyone else actually see OWS? I had to walk by one of their camps in DC for a few months.

    they are communists who are confused about what anarchy is.

    OWS guy: “we’re anarchist who want the state to own everything … you know the people”
    NoVA … {thinking .. oh, they’re commies. and where the hell is my town car driver?”]

    Like

  14. Apparently their actual web site is wrong too:

    “We need a break from capitalism. It has failed the 99%.”

    http://occupywallst.org/article/occupy-response-sotu-president-obama/

    Space was unpersuadable. OWS is just against crony capitalism and rent seeking but is fine with inequality provided it was earned.

    The root of the debate was arguing over whether or not President Obama was invoking OWS in his SOTU. I argued no as he gave the classic merit defense of inequality as a throw away line. Even as lip service, it was straight out of the free market boilerplate rhetoric.

    Like

  15. This should go over well with his base:

    “Report May Ease Way to Approval of Keystone Pipeline
    By CORAL DAVENPORTJAN. 31, 2014

    WASHINGTON — The State Department released a report on Friday that could pave the way toward President Obama’s approval of the Keystone XL oil pipeline.

    The long-awaited environmental impact statement on the project concludes that approval or denial of the pipeline, which would carry 830,000 barrels of oil a day from Alberta to the Gulf Coast, is unlikely to prompt oil companies to change the rate of their extraction of carbon-heavy tar sands oil, a State Department official said. Either way, the tar sands oil, which produces significantly more planet-warming carbon pollution than standard methods of drilling, is coming out of the ground, the report says.”

    http://www.nytimes.com/2014/02/01/us/politics/report-may-ease-way-to-approval-of-keystone-pipeline.html?emc=edit_na_20140131

    Like

  16. That makes no sense at all. OWS is not calling for increased regulation or more oversight. It’s gussied up communism.

    Like

  17. Correct. The argument was absurd but they stuck with it. They degenerated to “Well, I and my friends went to an OWS rally so therefore OWS is about what I personally believe”.

    Like

  18. The argument was absurd but they stuck with it.

    You have to admit, Alethia is nothing if not tenacious!

    I wonder how long it’ll be before she accuses me of being a red meat capitalist again? The Libertarian Avenger arises from the ashes!

    Like

  19. No shame in that.

    If you’re a communist at this point, you’re either a clown or evil. or an evil clown.

    Like

  20. looks like it to me.

    Like

  21. great now i’ve got this running through my head.

    Everybody loves a clown, so why don’t you?
    Everybody laughs at the things I say and do
    They all laugh when they see me comin’

    But you don’t laugh, you just go home runnin’
    Everybody loves a clown, so why can’t you?
    A clown has feelings, too

    Like

  22. Send in the clowns.

    Don’t bother, they’re here.

    Like

  23. Aletheia101
    4:49 PM EST

    Michigoose,

    I thought you were a conservative.

    That didn’t take long. . .

    And I’ll get you for that earworm, “Carl”!!

    Like

  24. Like

  25. Boom

    The news will also be sobering to investors in the municipal debt market. Lending money to cities and states has suddenly become a much riskier proposition. Cities and states are going to have to pay higher interest rates as bondholders will (correctly) reason that they will be sent to the back of the line for repayment should anything go wrong.

    http://www.the-american-interest.com/blog/2014/01/31/detroit-chooses-pensioners-over-bondholders-in-debt-plan/

    Like

  26. I’ll probably have a clown nightmare now……………….wish I hadn’t read this thread or looked at Scott’s pic. I never could go to the circus!

    Like

  27. Have you guys seen this test yet?

    http://www.buzzfeed.com/ashleyperez/what-career-should-you-have

    I got: Writer

    You are a maker. Creative from the day you were born, you spend most of your time thinking about the world you live in. You are open to new ideas and value beauty and originality more than most. We both know you’re not really the office type, so give yourself some room to create. Other occupations: director, producer, advertiser.

    Like

    • lms:

      You got: Professor

      You are a thinker, in constant search of knowledge and answers to life’s most illusive questions. You love to analyze everything, testing out theories and pushing mental boundaries. Basically you’re an Einstein, but then again you probably already knew that.

      Like

  28. Very close Scott except they forgot the argumentative factor. I wouldn’t take your class and you probably wouldn’t’ buy my book, haha.

    Like

  29. Lol, that’s better than what my husband said. He said he’d buy it and use it as a white elephant gift so I asked him when was the last time he actually read a book.

    Like

  30. Nightmare scenario

    You got: Humanitarian

    You are a giver, a justice seeker. You spend more time thinking about others than yourself, and more than anything just want what you’re doing to help someone in some way. Essentially, you is kind, you is smart, you is important. Other occupations: social worker, judge.

    Like

  31. Wow, McWing………………..I can’t actually think of anything else to say but WOW. Are you sure you’re not a closet …………………..Democrat!

    Like

  32. You got: Designer

    You are an artist, creative juices are oozing out of you. You’d make just as good of a designer as you would an architect, as long as you get to create something. You live your life like Michelangelo, constantly looking for the sculpture within the stone. Other occupations: architect, editor.

    Like

  33. Phillip Seymour Hoffman found dead in apartment.

    Like

  34. Above could be a hoax. Stand by.

    Like

  35. Here’s a post link.

    http://nypost.com/2014/02/02/philip-seymour-hoffman-found-dead-in-his-apartment/

    Ever see Before the Devil Knows your Dead? Excellent work.

    Like

    • McWing:

      Ever see Before the Devil Knows your Dead? Excellent work.

      Oh yeah. Some of Marisa Tomei’s best work!

      It’s sad but OD’s by adults just make me mad.

      Especially very well off adults.

      Like

  36. I guess it’s confirmed.

    It’s sad but OD’s by adults just make me mad.

    Like

  37. Test wouldn’t open for me. 😦

    Like

  38. I go back to the OxyClean soap guy! Dudes in his late forties and still snorting coke? C’mon? You got a wife and kids! It’s embarrassing.

    Like

  39. BTW, I think it was the Oscar Wilde as dinner guest that doomed me.

    But c’mon, I’m supposed to pass that shit up? Oscar Wilde? I don’t have the strength.

    Like

  40. Drip Drip.

    “Labor union officials say Obama betrayed them in health-care rollout
    By Steven Mufson and Tom Hamburger, Published: January 31”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/business/economy/labor-union-officials-say-obama-betrayed-them-in-health-care-rollout/2014/01/31/2cda6afc-8789-11e3-833c-33098f9e5267_story.html?tid=pm_pop

    Like

  41. The PL freaks must be shitting themselves over Volock.

    Like

  42. “It’s sad but OD’s by adults just make me mad.”

    Why? I immediately thought of something Kevin Smith (Silent Bob) said during one of his podcasts with Jason Mewes (Jay), a recovering addict, that i caught in person a 2-3 years ago: you want to play in an adult world, manage your shit and accept the consequences.

    And second what Scott said. Although I wonder how much a prop bet on “the first play from scrimmage will result in a safety” paid off.

    Like

  43. Nova, I guess it’s more along the lines of they should know better.

    Plus, a la David Carradine, it’s embarrassing.

    Like

  44. I took the test. Evidently I am a Humanitarian. Sounds good to me.

    Good Morning All… and Have a Great Day!

    Like

  45. How goes the appeal?

    Like

Be kind, show respect, and all will be right with the world.

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s

%d bloggers like this: