Morning Report – Bay Area Home Prices eclipse bubble highs 11/05/13

Vital Statistics:

Last Change Percent
S&P Futures 1758.0 -5.0 -0.28%
Eurostoxx Index 3032.3 -28.9 -0.94%
Oil (WTI) 94.33 -0.3 -0.31%
LIBOR 0.238 0.000 -0.17%
US Dollar Index (DXY) 80.59 0.032 0.04%
10 Year Govt Bond Yield 2.62% 0.02%
Current Coupon Ginnie Mae TBA 106.3 0.3
Current Coupon Fannie Mae TBA 105.2 -0.1
RPX Composite Real Estate Index 200.7 -0.2
BankRate 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgage 4.22

Markets are lower this morning on no real news. Bonds and MBS are down. Later this morning, we will get the ISM non-manufacturing survey and the IBD / TIPP economic optimism report.

SAC Capital and the government reached a deal yesterday – Cohen’s SAC Capital and the government settled insider trading charges for $1.2 billion. Cohen personally was never criminally charged. While Steve Cohen avoids jail, the firm will no longer be able to manage money, and once the client funds are withdrawn, no one on the Street will deal with him anymore. So, he can take his billions and go to the beach, I guess. The ultimate arbitrage – Cohen won this game.
The FHFA banned fees on forced placed insurance yesterday. Ultimately this move will result in a little less revenue for servicers.
Did FHA hike premiums just a little too much? It appears so. Wells, Bank of America and TD Bank are now offering loans with as low as a 5% down payment, with a requirement to have PMI until the house has 20% equity (this was the big thing FHA changed – now PMI has to exist for the life of the loan, regardless of the equity). In other words, Wells, B of A, and TD are offering a product similar to old FHA loans. Rising house prices make these worth the gamble. The government has been saying it wants to crowd in private capital; perhaps this is an intended consequence.
The CFPB will hold a hearing in Boston on Wednesday, November 20th at 11:00 am. Richard Cordray will be speaking as well as representatives from consumer groups, industry and the public. These hearings are usually used to announce new initiatives, and we may get the TILA-RESPA integrated disclosures final rule.
What is driving the growth of home prices in the Bay Area? Chinese money. Bay Area house prices are at all time highs, yes, even higher than the bubble years. Roughly 7% higher.

89 Responses

  1. Just took a look at my 401k. the 1-year ROI …. 35.9%. crazy.

    Also voted this morning. There was an L candidate running for state delegate, so that was a nice surprise. and I also got to vote No! on a the county issuing bonds for schools. woo!

    Also: This is hilarious: http://www.patheos.com/blogs/zekepipher/2013/10/i-dated-the-obamacare-girl/

    Like

  2. someone linked it in the comments section of Ace’s morning news dump. too good not to pass along.

    Like

  3. Brought my yard sign to the polling place.

    Like

  4. how was turnout? I was number 133 at a little after 8.
    care to take a guess on results? here’s mine

    D: 55
    R: 40
    L: 5

    Like

  5. Pretty good. I have no idea on the results. Did you end up voting for Lt Gov & AG?

    Like

  6. I went single-issue mode and voted R for AG solely on guns. the D candidate has stuffed my mailbox with gun control crap — like daily for the past 2 weeks. so that was a spite vote. skipped the LG — or was it the other way? i skipped the race with EW Jackson.

    I think the Ds will sweep it though, just on Mac’s coattails.

    Like

  7. I suspect you are right on the breakdown. I would much prefer if McAuliffe doesn’t get over 50% due to the narrative that’s going to be constructed, but the Democrats are definitely the more motivated base this election.

    Like

  8. EW Jackson is the Lt Gov. I voted for the Democrat because of Jackson and the fact that the Democrat, Ralph Northam was once recruited by the Republicans to switch parties, so he can’t be that bad.

    Missed the mailers, but I received 6 Republican robocalls last night on my antiquated landline.

    Like

  9. Worth noting from listening to NPR this morning – apparently 75% of billionaires are self made.

    http://www.npr.org/2013/11/05/243150367/bloomberg-markets-magazine-reveals-hidden-billionaires

    Like

  10. oh yeah, ideally*, it would be
    42
    42
    15

    and gridlock

    *outside of a L win

    Like

  11. The panic starts:

    “While Upton’s legislation permits insurers to sell existing coverage plans that would otherwise be banned, Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., introduced legislation during the day to go one step further by requiring it.

    Aides said that under her measure, insurance companies would be obliged to continue offering existing paying customers continued coverage under any plans in effect at the end of 2013. No new consumers could enroll.

    “A promise was made that if you like your health plan, you can keep it – and I will do everything I can to see that the promise is kept,” said Landrieu, who is gearing up for what is expected to be a challenging re-election campaign next year.”

    http://talkingpointsmemo.com/news/dem-sen-donnelly-s-son-received-insurance-cancellation-notice–2

    Like

    • jnc:

      While Upton’s legislation permits insurers to sell existing coverage plans that would otherwise be banned, Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., introduced legislation during the day to go one step further by requiring it.

      And we are back to the principle articulated yesterday, I think it was: That which is not prohibited will be required.

      Like

  12. It’s really too bad. Kennedy died, Brown won, and the D’s shit their pants. it was pass something, anything, right now.

    Like

  13. Comment on a story about people considering divorce to qualify for subsidies under ACA:

    http://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2013/11/the-hidden-marriage-penalty-in-obamacare/280890/

    ath716 • 2 hours ago −
    Well, in all fairness, Obama only promised you could keep your plan and your doctor. He didn’t say anything about keeping your spouse.

    Like

  14. Fuck helping them. Repeal the whole thing or delay the whole thing. These assholes passed The Abomination they can choke on it.

    Like

  15. ” they can choke on it”

    that’s what my dad said last night. In a letter to the editor I urged him not to mail, as I’d rather the angry mob not burn down his house. but more with more swearing.

    Like

  16. http://www.bizjournals.com/sanfrancisco/blog/2013/11/blue-shield-has-deal-with-state-to.html

    oh yeah, this is going great. it’s just a website issue. no problem.

    Like

  17. “Well, in all fairness, Obama only promised you could keep your plan and your doctor. He didn’t say anything about keeping your spouse.”

    That’s awesome. They’ll probably get a tax break from getting divorced too, just like Benmosche:

    “Benmosche was so notoriously frugal that soon after they got married, his wife Denise granted him a divorce just to avoid unfavorable tax laws. “We were in the hotel in Santo Domingo, and I said, ‘Oh, look, honey, we can get a divorce for $400,’ ” she says. “I knew if we didn’t go through with it, he would be so angry come April 15.” Benmosche pulls a sitcom-­husband face. They remarried the following year, although for the past ten they’ve had what he calls an “off-and-on relationship” that seems, at least in Croatia, to be mostly on. Still, Denise lives in Manhattan, while Benmosche, who has various “female companions,” lives mainly in tax-friendly Boca Raton.”

    http://nymag.com/news/features/bob-benmosche-aig-2012-10/

    Like

  18. are you surprised?

    Like

    • I hadn’t really considered the possibility until I read the article, but I guess not. I’ve always thought that as a general rule in big elections a vote for a libertarian candidate is in effect a vote for the the Democrat, so I shouldn’t be surprised to find out there are Dems who agree with that assessment.

      Like

  19. Obama on 9/26/2013.

    “About 85 percent of Americans already have health insurance -– either through their job, or through Medicare, or through the individual market. So if you’re one of these folks, it’s reasonable that you might worry whether health care reform is going to create changes that are a problem for you — especially when you’re bombarded with all sorts of fear-mongering.

    So the first thing you need to know is this: If you already have health care, you don’t have to do anything…”

    Criminal, no?

    http://m.nationalreview.com/campaign-spot/363106/obama-misspoke-lied-lots-more-keeping-your-plan-jim-geraghty

    Like

  20. I voted for Sarvis. The House of Delegates will remain R. So we’ll have gridlock and that will go nicely with the shitty traffic. The Rs did nothing to reach out those who would be interested is limited government. And I’m tired of the “but the other guy is worse.”

    But really, it just doesn’t matter what I do. In 2012, Obama doubled up on Romney in my polling station. Johnson got 21 votes. I feel like i’m in Spaceballs. I’m surrounded by assholes. I’m sure it will be the same today

    Like

    • nova:

      And I’m tired of the “but the other guy is worse.”

      Me too, actually. But it is an unfortunate reality. Maybe I should be taken to task for succumbing to two-party dominance, and I suppose that state elections are somewhat different than national elections. But I think before we can fix things (if it is possible – I am skeptical), we must first stop doing damage, and so not electing Democrats is the highest priority to me.

      But really, it just doesn’t matter what I do.

      I am with you there. I live in Connecticut, for goodness sakes. Outside of my local reps, my vote has never mattered in the slightest.

      Like

  21. The guy who had me sign up to get Sarvis on the ballot was a regular old Libertarian who has been doing it for years. He’s the same guy who circulated the Gary Johnson petition.

    This is Cuccinelli supporters talking points about how they were robbed because they were entitled to those votes.

    Like

    • jnc:

      This is Cuccinelli supporters talking points about how they were robbed because they were entitled to those votes.

      Could be.

      I definitely wouldn’t frame libertarian participation as R’s getting “robbed” or being deprived of votes they are “entitled” to, but I do think it is perfectly reasonable to wonder what L candidates and voters are trying to accomplish, and what effect, if any, they have on an election. I think that, to the extent that they have any immediate impact on an election, that impact is to help the D candidate. If that is what L candidates and voters want, even if as part of some longer term strategy, then good for them, I guess. But we should at least be able to point out that helping elect D’s is indeed what they are doing.

      I think for libertarian ideology to ever gain ground politically in the US, it must do so from within the R party, not from without. If libertarians can’t convince traditionally R voters to support their ideas in numbers, I don’t think they will ever be able to convince any significant number of non-R voters to do so. The Tea Party has the right idea. They are a sub-party of the R’s, trying to move it from within. L’s should join forces with them.

      Like

  22. And apparently all that fundraising expertise didn’t translate into campaign funds for Sarvis.

    “BY OLYMPIA MEOLA
    Richmond Times-Dispatch

    Democrat Terry McAuliffe has more than double the cash on hand of his opponent for the final week before Election Day, holding $1.6 million, compared with Republican Ken Cuccinelli’s $604,163.

    McAuliffe raised $8.1 million from Oct. 1 to 23, compared with $2.9 million for Cuccinelli, according to the Virginia Public Access Project, a nonpartisan tracker of money in politics.

    Monday’s report was the last complete campaign finance report due before the Nov. 5 election. Candidates will still have to file large donations — those $5,000 or more to statewide candidates and $1,000-plus to candidates for the House of Delegates.

    Libertarian nominee for governor Robert C. Sarvis has $58,583 on hand after raising $81,594 in the period.”

    http://www.timesdispatch.com/news/state-regional/government-politics/mcauliffe-dominating-cuccinelli-in-fundraising/article_072572d4-403f-11e3-8639-10604b9f6eda.html

    Like

    • jnc:

      And apparently all that fundraising expertise didn’t translate into campaign funds for Sarvis.

      If the implication of the article is correct, the goal wasn’t so much to pump big funds into Sarvis’ campaign as it was to just get his name on the ballot.

      Campaign finance records show the Libertarian Booster PAC has made the largest independent contribution to Sarvis’ campaign, helping to pay for professional petition circulators who collected signatures necessary to get Sarvis’ name on Tuesday’s statewide ballot.

      I don’t know if contributions can be designated for specific purposes like paying people to get signatures. If not, then the above is just spin. But if so, then it not only seems possible, but seems like just the sort of thing a D operative might want to do.

      Like

  23. I think the spread is will be big enough that the L voters, even if added to the R column, will still result in a D win. I also think that when turnout is about 40% of RV, you go out and find new voters. the Rs do none of that. instead of bitching about votes you didn’t get, find, registering and bank new votes.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virginia_gubernatorial_election,_2009

    in 2009, McDonnell “won”* with 35% turnout. There’s a huge pool of untapped voters there if you’re capable of reaching them.

    *turnout less than 50%, toss them all and try again.

    Like

  24. “If libertarians can’t convince traditionally R voters to support their ideas in numbers, I don’t think they will ever be able to convince any significant number of non-R voters to do so.”

    If the traditional Republican candidate can’t manage to keep Libertarians on board, then he deserves to lose.

    The timing of the Blaze story is suspicious. Cuccinelli could always have debated Sarvis to show why he was a better candidate, but he of course went to great lengths to have him excluded. Between that, and his manipulating of the convention process to preclude a primary, Cuccinelli has managed to alienate a large portion of the non-Democrats in Virginia. He has no one to blame but himself.

    This is a rather good narrative of the whole thing.

    http://prospect.org/article/how-virginia-ended-stinker-governors-race

    Edit: At the end of the day, I agree with NoVA. Gridlock and divided government is a perfectly acceptable second best outcome.

    Like

    • jnc:

      If the traditional Republican candidate can’t manage to keep Libertarians on board, then he deserves to lose.

      That’s one way of looking at it, I suppose, but I don’t think the notion of “deserve” is helpful here. Does the D candidate, who also hasn’t kept the L’s on board, “deserve” to win? In most elections I don’t think either the R or the D candidates “deserve” to win, but sure as the sun rises in the east, one of them will. So the relevant question, in my mind anyway, is not who “deserves” to win, but rather of the only possible choices in front of me, which is the most representative of, or least offensive to, libertarian values.

      As a general believer in libertarian principles myself, I think libertarians are faced with 2 specific tasks. One is the short term goal of limiting the damage that non-libertarians do to the culture and politics of the nation, and the second is the longer term goal of promoting and garnering popular support for libertarian values and ideas, which will eventually translate into actual political success. Given the political dominance of the two-party system, both goals require participation in, not self-exile from, the two-party system. And due to the nature of each of the two parties, the only sensible home for promoting these two goals is within the R party.

      To be sure, I wouldn’t expect L’s to be so blindly loyal to R’s that their support gets taken for granted. But I still think the best way for L’s to be able to influence policy in ways that they desire is to actually accrue some power within the R party first. The Tea Party didn’t get the attention of the R establishment by voting for 3rd party candidates. It got the attention of the R establishment by getting it’s own selected candidates elected as R’s over the establishment candidates. L’s can, and should, do the same.

      Like

  25. Looks like Obama forgot to retcon the White House website.

    http://m.whitehouse.gov/health-care-meeting/proposal/titlei/keepit

    This President literally cannot do anything competently.

    The above was racist. I denounce myself.

    Like

  26. “Cuccinelli could always have debated Sarvis to show why he was a better candidate, but he of course went to great lengths to have him excluded.”

    That’s the thing. Debate him, beat him, and move on. The sitting AG should be able to destroy a political novice.

    I’m willing to bet that right-leaning independents are voting D. Sarvis didn’t do that. the R party did.

    Like

  27. God, I wish that Aletheia was the public face of the Democratic party.

    “American consumers are suckers. All too many think they’re getting a great deal via “convenience” when we have ATMs, self-service at gas stations, grocery stores, coffee shops, call-in centers with fully automated services, etc. ”

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/plum-line/wp/2013/11/05/keep-up-the-climate-fight-democrats/#comments

    Like

  28. it all depends on what the meaning of “plan” is. or “keep.” or “like.” maybe that’s it. you didn’t really like your plan, did you? of course not.

    Like

  29. she/he is the face behind the mask.

    Like

  30. except that mask took the job of the make-up artist. dammit!

    Like

  31. i don’t know what’s up, but Gadsen flags galore marching through the street

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  32. I bet it’s racist whatever it is.

    And probably the fault of Whitaker Chambers.

    Like

  33. Never forget, Edie Sundby maybe LIED and, more importantly is DIFFERENT THAN YOU!!!

    http://nomoremister.blogspot.com/2013/11/what-edie-sundby-left-out-of-that-wall.html?m=1

    The Tolerant Left.

    Like

  34. “I bet it’s racist whatever it is”

    funny, i didn’t get an email.

    Like

  35. Scott, in this particular race the deficiencies of Cuccinelli himself combined with the option of divided government and gridlock made the decision easy.

    I’m pro-abortion, so that factors into it as well and would probably not sway you very much.

    Like

    • jnc:

      Scott, in this particular race the deficiencies of Cuccinelli himself combined with the option of divided government and gridlock made the decision easy.

      That is fair enough. I am speaking more generally, and in fact I think what I said applies more nationally than locally. I don’t know much about Cuccinelli or the situation on the ground in VA. Although I would add that if gridlock is the strategy, why not just vote directly for D? Concern about physical illness in the voting booth if you actually pulled the lever for McAuliffe, maybe?

      I’m pro-abortion, so that factors into it as well and would probably not sway you very much.

      Yes, since states can only legislate on abortion at the margins, I view it as mostly a non-issue in state elections (or, really, any elections) despite the attention that both politicians and the media like to give it. The real issue is Roe/Casey, and that is a matter that only the Supreme Court can rectify.

      Like

    • McWing:

      Talk about your hostage videos.

      Indeed. Somehow I think that by “help explain” what the admin really means is “stop explaining”.

      Like

  36. What impact could Cooch possibly have on abortion?

    Like

  37. I remember when some companies took earnings charges related to obamacare after it passed and Henry Waxman demanded they stop doing it or else come to DC to explain themselves….

    God forbid a company do its fiduciary duty to shareholders….

    Like

  38. what really chaps my ass about the clinic thing is all of as sudden progressives care about regulatory burden. that’s rich

    Like

    • nova:

      what really chaps my ass about the clinic thing is all of as sudden progressives care about regulatory burden. that’s rich

      Exactly. Pro-abortion libertarians may be in a position to sensibly object, but not progressives.

      Like

  39. I understand cooch’s ultimate goal is too get rid of abortion. But in light of the horrors of Gosnell, is stricter regulation and safety of abortion clinics really an undue burden? Secondly, given that left wing nature of government workers, do you seriously believe they’ll be enforced? Same things happening here in Texas and I believe it’s just not rational to expect compliance or enforcement. Heck, PA had a Republican give or that ordered abortion clinics to not be inspected.

    Is it your dislike of cooch’s opinion on abortion rather than any real hindrance of abortion that’s stopping you? Don’t care, just curious.

    Like

  40. I don’t think Cuccinelli is being honest about being focused on safety with these regulations. He wants to limit abortions by any means possible. If he was focused on safety, while also preserving access, he could easily come to an agreement.

    Lying about reasons for public policy isn’t just wrong when Obama does it, it applies to Republicans as well.

    ” I don’t know much about Cuccinelli or the situation on the ground in VA. Although I would add that if gridlock is the strategy, why not just vote directly for D? “

    I’d probably just not vote then, given the polling. Voting for Sarvis and possibly hitting a 10% threshold was an option to make something positive out of this race. Also, it matters to the media narrative and subsequent positioning of the major parties if the difference between winning and losing was the libertarian vote.

    Not living in Virginia probably means you don’t realize how much of a self aggrandizing asshole Cuccinelli is perceived as, even by “establishment” Republicans. If his top priority was keeping a Republican in office and preventing McAuliffe from winning, then he should have suspended his campaign a week ago and endorsed Bill Bolling as a write in candidate.

    Like

    • jnc:

      I don’t think Cuccinelli is being honest about being focused on safety with these regulations.

      Given the standard euphemisms and arguments employed by abortion rights proponents, I don’t see why anyone opposed to abortion should be singled out on that front.

      Not living in Virginia probably means you don’t realize how much of a self aggrandizing asshole Cuccinelli is perceived as, even by “establishment” Republicans.

      True, I don’t know much about him at all. But I do know about McAuliffe. Cuccinelli must be beyond the pale if you’d prefer McAuliffe. For me a preferred candidate is not so much about what kind of personality he has, but rather what kinds of policies he’s likely to produce. If I thought Obama was the nicest, most genuine and down to earth guy on earth and his opponent was an arrogant, self-aggrandizing prick, I’d still vote against Obama because his ideology is so destructive. When I have to choose a computer, I don’t care whether Bill Gates or Steve Jobs is (was) an asshole or a good guy, I only care about the product that they produce. Likewise when I have to choose a politician.

      Like

    • jnc:

      I meant to mention this yesterday, but forgot.

      He wants to limit abortions by any means possible.

      Given Roe/Casey, these types of regulations are the only means possible. The Supreme Court has disallowed states from limiting abortion via more straight forward methods.

      Like

      • Looks like getting Sarvis on the ballot in VA might have been crucial to getting McAuliffe elected. If it is true that D fundraisers helped make it happen, I guess it was a good strategy.

        The most generous thing I can say for McAuliffe is that he isn’t DeBlasio. DeBlasio may very well set NYC back 25 years, and anyone who was in NYC in the mid 80s knows how grim a place it was. Given that he was elected by a margin of nearly 50%, the old adage is more applicable than ever here: NYC voters will get exactly what they deserve.

        Like

  41. Yes, but part of the product is the candidate as a leader of the executive branch itself.

    Like

    • jnc;

      Yes, but part of the product is the candidate as a leader of the executive branch itself.

      Agreed. But the most important part to me is where he is leading. I’d rather have a ineffectual leader heading in the right direction than a very effective leader headed in the wrong direction.

      Like

  42. “Given Roe/Casey, these types of regulations are the only means possible.”

    Scott, correct, hence it’s not about clinic safety.

    With regards to this:

    “But the most important part to me is where he is leading.”

    as I’ve gotten older I believe that actual honesty is probably more important. However, it’s pretty rare in politicians.

    Like

    • jnc:

      Scott, correct, hence it’s not about clinic safety.

      Probably not. But of course keeping abortion clinics open isn’t about “women’s health” or “reproductive rights”, either. The whole issue just swims in dishonesty, so, again, there is nothing particularly notable about Cuccinelli on this front. And even presuming that Cuccinelli is being disingenuous, that doesn’t mean the legislation isn’t actually justified on grounds of safety. Why should abortion clinics be exempted from the same regulations that apply to other surgical outpatient clinics?

      However, it’s pretty rare in politicians.

      Yes, it is. In fact the ability to lie and to lie well is quite an asset in a politician, which explains its rarity.

      Like

  43. ” If it is true that D fundraisers helped make it happen, I guess it was a good strategy.”

    Democratic fundraisers didn’t sign the petitions. That’s just excuse making from the Cuccinelli camp. Democratic fundraisers didn’t drive Gary Johnson getting on the ballot in 2012 to the best of my knowledge. The Libertarians just leveraged the organization from 2012. They are probably the best organized third party when it comes to getting ballot access.

    Based on all the whining I saw on Facebook last night, Cuccinelli supporters seem to believe that they were automatically entitled to those votes. The fact that their candidate was the cause of this schism is totally lost on them. Bolling would have walked away with it.

    Like

    • jnc:

      Democratic fundraisers didn’t sign the petitions.

      True. And the dollars McAuliffe’s campaign spent on campaign advertising didn’t vote. But that doesn’t mean they didn’t help him get votes.

      Bolling would have walked away with it.

      Perhaps, but didn’t Bolling actually cast the decisive vote in favor of the dreaded regulations on abortion clinics? It seems odd that people who voted against Cuccinelli because of his support for those regulations would have happily voted in droves for Bolling.

      Like

  44. Agree with JNC. Bolling cleans ups. I think that about 1% of Sarvis support was from libertarians, like me and JNC. the rest was likely a true “screw everyone” vote.

    But it was much, much tighter than I expected. Likely due to the fact that, if WTOP was correct this morning, turnout was about 38%. Which, to me, is actually pretty satisfying. The vast majority of RVs aren’t buying what either party is selling.

    Like

  45. my polling station:

    Gov.
    D – 514
    R – 255
    L -40

    I have to find those 39 others. Mrs. NoVa was out of town, otherwise it would be 41.

    Lt. Gov
    D – 564
    R -245

    AG
    D- 542
    R- 271

    Like

  46. The problem with the “Sarvis cost us the race” spin from Cuccinelli is that the polling results showed Sarvis drawing 53% from McAuliffe and 42% from Cuccinelli. Even if you assume it’s reversed, that’s still not enough to overcome McAuliffe’s lead.

    http://www.washingtonpost.com/page/2010-2019/WashingtonPost/2013/10/28/National-Politics/Polling/question_12364.xml?uuid=n82oQkAjEeOwKN6SLXo_Rw

    Like

    • jnc:

      The problem with the “Sarvis cost us the race” spin from Cuccinelli is that the polling results showed Sarvis drawing 53% from McAuliffe and 42% from Cuccinelli.

      Other polls showed different results. But ultimately I think what Ramesh said is correct…when a race is that close, all explanations could be “right”.

      Like

  47. “I think that about 1% of Sarvis support was from libertarians, like me and JNC. the rest was likely a true “screw everyone” vote.”

    One percent was the Gary Johnson vote in 2012 right? Those are the true believers.

    Like

  48. @jnc4p: “One percent was the Gary Johnson vote in 2012 right? Those are the true believers.”

    I liked to think of myself as more of a “eh, what hell”-er. I know Mitt Romney would take Tennessee. Why not vote for Gary Johnson? I sure liked him better than either Romney or Obama.

    Like

  49. Last poll taken:

    49% from McAuliffe
    42% from Cuccinelli

    http://www.quinnipiac.edu/institutes-and-centers/polling-institute/virginia/release-detail?ReleaseID=1974

    Edit from the NR link:

    “But Christopher Newport University found quite different results in their sub-sample of Sarvis voters, with 37 percent saying they would be more likely to support Cuccinelli, only 17 percent McAuliffe, and 38 percent saying they wouldn’t vote if Sarvis wasn’t on the ballot.”

    Even with those numbers, I still think McAuliffe wins if you do the math.

    Like

  50. @jnc4p: “God, I wish that Aletheia was the public face of the Democratic party.”

    That’s mean. What have the Democrats ever done to you? 😉

    Seriously, though, I just don’t get that kind of thinking. Does she (He?) know what the introduction of antibiotics did to the local mom & pop mortuary? While big pharma gets rich off of so called “curing of disease” and “preventing death”, dozens of local organic funeral homes have had to lay off embalmers, or have gone out of business entirely.

    This is America people! Choosing Big Pharma over local business people! For your spoiled “convenience” of not dying whenever you get an infection. You selfish pricks.

    Like

  51. Three questions:

    1. Did Cooch overperform?
    2. If so, why?
    3. How in the fuck are you all spelling Cuccinelli correctly all the time?

    Like

    • McWing:

      How in the fuck are you all spelling Cuccinelli correctly all the time?

      Hah! I had to repeatedly look it up and fix it yesterday, but I've typed it so many times in the last day it is starting to come naturally.

      Like

  52. “It seems odd that people who voted against Cuccinelli because of his support for those regulations would have happily voted in droves for Bolling.”

    Wouldn’t have been droves, but it would have probably been enough to make a difference. Bolling had more distance as Cuccinelli was also involved in implementing the regulations and specifically forced the regulatory board to adopt a rule that could have shut down every existing abortion clinic in the state.

    If you wanted to pick the politician who was most visible as the face of the anti-abortion movement in Virginia, it was clearly Cuccinelli. That was by design, and he made a point of being “unreasonable” about it. No middle ground there.

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    • jnc:

      …and specifically forced the regulatory board to adopt a rule that could have shut down every existing abortion clinic in the state.

      What was the rule? And did it?

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    • jnc:

      Bolling had more distance as Cuccinelli was also involved in implementing the regulations…

      I wonder if Bolling’s support of the regulations was more honest than Cuccinelli’s.

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  53. 1. Did Cooch overperform?
    Yes

    2. If so, why?
    Obamacare problems & McAuliffe decided to go full scale anti-gun in the closing days. That almost shifted me and would have if the legislature had been Democratic. Fortunately, gridlock was an option.

    3. How in the fuck are you all spelling Cuccinelli correctly all the time?

    Cut and paste.

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  54. Here you go. It’s all tied up in a lawsuit currently I believe.

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/06/14/virginia-abortion-clinic-regulations-lawsuit_n_3439641.html

    “The board passed the same regulations — known as TRAP laws (Targeted Regulation of Abortion Providers) — in June, with an amendment to grandfather in existing clinics so that they could remain open. But the board tossed out that amendment in September after Attorney General Ken Cuccinelli, a Republican gubernatorial candidate and outspoken anti-abortion advocate, sent the board a strongly-worded letter threatening to deny them state-funded legal counsel.”

    http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/04/12/virginia-abortion-clinic_n_3070320.html

    The other difference with Bolling and Cuccinelli was Bolling wasn’t running around trying to get the anti-sodomy law reinstated. Cuccinelli ran with every conservative social issue he could somehow involve himself with.

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    • jnc:

      The board passed the same regulations — known as TRAP laws (Targeted Regulation of Abortion Providers) — in June, with an amendment to grandfather in existing clinics so that they could remain open.

      Are these regulations any different than those that apply to other types of surgical outpatient clinics?

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  55. I couldn’t figure out why the Clintons and Obama came to campaign for him or even why Blommberg dumped in a ton of money.. Clinton’s got President campaigning to do and Obama has Obamacare to continue to fuck up and Blommberg has continued losing to do in Colorado.. the polling was showing (at least what the media was showing us) that TM had a substantial lead. I guess their internal polling wasn’t so positive

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  56. Post is reporting 37% turnout. Basically all 3 candidates left more than 60% of the eligible vote on the table. i think the parties would be best served by address that then fighting over the few percentage points hereor there. how do you get those people to the polls. find new voters.

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    • nova:

      i think the parties would be best served by address that

      Do you really think increasing the number of no/low-information voters is a good idea? I am pretty cynical about the average citizens interest in and knowledge of the relevant issues, so low voter turnout does not strike me a particular problem. I guess if, as a party, you think you can educate and inform a previously untapped demographic such that they will vote for you, that’s useful. But I am doubtful there is such an untapped demographic that has the interest to be properly informed about the issues.

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  57. Troll, I think professional Democrats like Clinton are well aware of Democratic off year turn out issues.

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  58. “i think the parties would be best served by address that ”

    That’s like trying to balance the budget by going after waste and fraud.

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  59. “That’s like trying to balance the budget by going after waste and fraud.”

    ha,..

    “you think you can educate and inform a previously untapped demographic such that they will vote for you, that’s useful”

    oh, i just meant in a “let’s win an election” mode. not, what’s good for the country or state.

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  60. “cAuliffe decided to go full scale anti-gun in the closing days. That almost shifted me and would have if the legislature had been Democratic. ”

    me too.

    Like

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